DB - Earnings & Vol Skew

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Feb 3, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    DB is trading down today. Earnings are 2/4/2010 BMO (tomorrow).

    Several skew charts are presented in the article.
    (1) Current Skew: Note the vol difference between the front (red) and other months, specifically the second month (yellow) (i.e 49 - 43 = 6).

    (2) Skew as of 1/21/2010 - i.e. What you might expect the skew to return to after earnings are released and the ensuing vol crush. Note the convergence of red to the other months.

    (3) Skew as of 10/28/2009 - The day before the last earnings release. The vol difference between the front (red) and the second month (yellow) is ~2 vol points.

    Finally, the Charts Tab snapshot is included in the article as well.

    Note in this chart:
    (1) In the bottom part of this chart (the volatility), the HV20&#8482 (blue line) is actually <i>above</i> the IV30&#8482 (red line).
    (2) Last earnings cycle (see the "E" icon in the top chart) the stock HV20&#8482 moved significantly more than the IV30&#8482.
    (3) Last earnings cycle the stock dipped into earnings, and increased out.
    (4) This earnings cycle the stock has dipped into earnings and seems to be turning.

    So the first skew chart (today) when compared with the last earnings cycle skew chart (third chart) shows that the front month relative to the other months seems expensive. But, the stock and vol chart shows a similar pattern to last earnings where vol seemed like a purchase (after the fact).

    This is an interesting phenomenon which is not terribly common - HV > IV into earnings where last earnings HV moved more than IV. Combine that with a higher front than other months relative to last earnings.

    This is trade analysis, not a reccommendation.

    You can read details, charts, skews, vols here: