can somebody explain todays close to me? 3 day weekend, all kinds of uncertainity going on, monster run, futures had stalled and failed earlier in the day, and they make new highs in the last 20 minutes? Who would be buying with such impunity in this scenario?
Maybe someone sold the piss out of the market midday and then, when we started to retest highs, they had to cover their short. I mean who knows man, what's the point in trying to figure out the why.
Honestly it felt like an ugly short squeeze. I don't know if there is a big short in the index futures, but in the underlying stocks there were some massive squeezes. Stocks were going straight up for 2 hours with not a single downtick. It was bizarre. I'm definitely getting the feeling that there are some long/short funds that are short the wrong stocks. The inidces are not properly showing you how hard this squeeze is. Look at some of the components.
Normal procedure is a retracement sometime during expiry week but as someone posted earlier there were massive puts on the index this month. With such a heavy "correction trade" in place it was only natural for people on that crowded trade to get run over. Note the nonstop top calls on ET for a month, you can see a lot of aggressive bears are out of synch with today's market. Individual stocks we are getting nice divergence but certainly large caps wih huge earnings are finally getting the respect they deserved but didn't get in 2010. I see this trade remaining good until early April.
I think there is a large short, or short fund in trouble and being liquidated. Just from the trading action the last couple of days, you would see a couple of downticks on the es and then they would come in above the ask with a bid. Nobody would voluntarily trade like that, but a risk manager liquidating a position would. Also, I have total respect for the bull run and all that, but as a manager who was long during this big run, why woud i buy at the close into a 3 day weekend with all the stuff going on in the mideast and all the other stuff. Again, I think it was a short squeeze or liquidation.
I may be the only person on the planet to think that this is a signal for a correction. From my understanding it is a run for the stops. A lot of weaks put their stops above the high of the day. When you see a run for the stops on one side expect the market to go the other side in the next few days, the bears are taking control. I know I may sound crazy, but I'm short, so I'll have a very stressed long week-end. If futures open higher Sunday, I'll get out, wait for three or four points up and short again. Obviously, if it corrects 20 points I'll be a buyer. Just my 2 cents. MomoNY.
What you saying makes a lot of sens. But, how about a hedge fund polling the market and when he sees weakness, he would want to short and tries to get the highest price? MomoNY.
I didn't find anything weird with today's close....considering it was an options expiration day. Imbalances(buy) were pretty big accordingly.