good stuff Jack. I'm not going to let this topic die. I have a difficult time understanding the math behind MACD. I know the good signals come when both my MACD and ma's up on my chart are in agreement. And many times they disagree. I use ma cross to determine S/R. You have no idea how interested in the proper ma settings I am. It is the ma's that I am putting my hope in for the longer move. Life always goes better when you are on the right side of the MA. Interesting coincidence. My very next project I am working on right now is determining ma length.
Just to let you know, I did start reading that trading system post and as I went through the long tirade of what the trading system should be named, I did achieve an unconscious state.
Used as a filter, along with other signals can narrow down your bias. To say you could make money consistently using 'only' that might be like only using 1 retracement to base all your decisions. MA cross along with average true range or an oscillator could provide a better picture. Narrowing down your type of trading and time frame might be larger issues.
I concur, the underlying presumtion is that trends remain stable enough for the MA period to be smooth. There has been no demand reflected in the supply and volume to show any form of consistancy, especially on the buys/accumulation side. In addition, the underlying fundamental market moves are choppy in nature due to the Depression, the anticipated war, and the fact that most company's products are not being purchased by their corporate customers other than the minimal essentials (just to keep operations afloat). Factor into the equation the notion that layoffs, firings, disbanding operations has unemployed thousands at a clip, undermines the true customer base, hence no demand at the lowest levels, hence choppy markets, hence flawed moving averages.
I see several posts that MA CrossOver works and several posts that MA CrossOver strategies doesn't work with consistency. I really surprise I haven't seen one chart that supports any of those statements. I have a funny feeling that those that say it works are using it completely different from those that say it doesn't work. In fact...someone show some charts how your MA CrossOver would have performed yesterday March 3rd and today March 4th... other than that...most conversation about MA CrossOver doesn't help larrybf. larrybf...do you have any charts prepared yet to show what you were doing with MA CrossOver signals? P.S. Only newbies use MA CrossOver in choppy environments...that's almost as bad as trying to figure out a way to make a trend indicator profitable during choppy environments. (I'm trying to drum up some interesting replies with the above statements) NihabaAshi
Uh, sold a winning position and took profits (sold a bullish crossover), in anticipation that the move was over, and the crossing over of the MA's suggested that profit taking was in order? Uh, shorted same or another position in anticipation of further selling in conjuction with profit taking (bought a bearish crossover), or possibly went long early in the cycle of a short term recovery in that position? not bad, sometimes these fancy terms need clarification as they could be translated into many different trading positions.
Hello Given that this is a forum for strategy trading. Couldnt someone just do a back test and see if MA crossovers work or not? Steve
It's been done by several here at ET. Search menu will probably dig up those old posts. Wouldn't matter if the results were good or bad... what counts is how it performed with real money during the heat of the trade... unless someone was using a mechnical system and religiously took every signal without any discretionary input. Looks like to me this thread is going no where... no proof for it...no proof against it... I would be happy to see how those that used (past tense) MA Crossover and say it DOES NOT WORK...show some charts of what they would have traded (hypothetically) on March 3rd, March 4th and today...that would have resulted in losses. Just the same...I'm very interested to see how those traders that use MA Crossover and say it DOES WORK...show some charts of what they would have traded (hypothetically) on March 3rd, March 4th and today...that would have resulted in profits. Looks like the person that started the thread has lost interest...no replies from him to those that said it works or it can work while he has doubts... hopefully someone did help larrybf via private message. NihabaAshi