IMHO: Trends ONLY exist in price charts. Trends can only be read consistently on non-variable volume bar charts. Trends are only good for determining the strength and weakness of price oscillations on those charts. Accurately reading the trend on those charts CAN improve the profit potential of trades taken from those price chart oscillations.
i didn't say if i agree with jack or not. i was only admiring his eloquent post. spike: i have no idea why you believe that you are succesful and i am not. just because i dont necessarily trade with the trend and you may be doesn't mean you are right and i am not. til now, your posts have been the most imature and unprofessional to say the least. please don't post on my thread if you can't stick to the subject and show manners.
I never said what you suggest. I said that i see things in INTRADAY that you apparently don't see. And as you don't see these things you conclude that NOBODY can trade intraday succesfully. Your intraday knowledge is clearly inferior to mine. Your accusations should be directed to yourself. My point is that your opinion is based upon your knowledge and my opinion is based on mine. I never said that you cannot be succesful, but it seems to be clear that in intraday trading you are not succesful at all. Try to read what i post. After a few years of following this site i learned that it is better not to post if what you say is not appreciated. So don't worry i will not post in your thread anymore. Apparently many posters on ET post mainly for their own ego, and they probably post because they don't trade or at least make no money in trading. For them posting is a surrogate for trading.
I'm sure he will be delighted to hear that. Jack likes people who are easy to please. In the meantime, you may wish to look into the distinction between eloquence and verbosity. It's really not that subtle.
spike: if i misunderstood your opinion i am very sorry for being trigger happy. the thing is that i posted because this is a very new idea that I had. when looking over the data it revealed to me a much more productive point of view than the one i am currently using... (which follows trends) i didn't post for my ego, i just wanted to attract opinions. and i appreciate your opinion as well as anybody who posted on this thread. but what i didn't like was the fact that out of all the posts, yours were the ones that sounded like "oh look at me, i can do this and you "clearly" can't do this" and so on... maybe i misunderstood. if so, again, my appologies. i am the one starting the thread and i want as much opinions as possible. up until now, all other differing opinions, i have treated them with respect, so i don't think that you can state that this thread is for egocentric purposes... but on another note, what i test and feel as being rational is more important than opinions, so if you choose not to post it's ok. i respect your decision.
moving on... i want to bring this discussion further. looking over a year's worth of data (i had to plot the sessions in excel as the fx daily chart is useless) i saw that zone that had large accumulation of stops either from the european or from the asian session had a large chance of getting hit in the next session. that got me thinking. market makers live on commisions (and not only that). for them orders are very important. so to me it seemed more rational that the market would be heading into the largest stop areas rather than respecting an underlying trend... at least for while in the session, the rational movement would be that: to generate commisions. after that, what orders come into the market could drive the market in the direction it has been heading. but on the other hand, they may not be sufficient. so i concluded the only rational and expectable direction in a day would be the shortest (most efficient) way to the nearest and most reasonable in size stop zone. (either buy or sell stops). opinions?
and to get even more precise let's consider a setup that can be derived from this situation: Europe session establishes a high and a low, therefore a range that we will call X. stops are accumulated above the high in a zone that is about x/2 wide and below the low in a zone that is about x/2. asia drives prices x/2 above the high of the session and then closes inside the european range. what will the next london open, since there are no more stops left above yesterday's high and the asian stops are thin do? a) consolidate at current day's resistance levels and head down towards "value" b) continue the rally to reach asian stops c) trade sideways until new orders in the direction of the trend are present in the market what is your take?
The thing is, if it hits the stops, then the price comes back down, where are those shorts going to put their stops? Possibly above the high? EDIT: just want to add: in a range, there is not really emotion-based trading, and that's what you defined. It's traders taking money from newbs like me, and from each other. In a trend, there is alot of emotional trading. I think the emotional trading actually makes the breakout from the fakeout, and therefore, makes the trend.
interesting idea. yes, new stops will be placed above recent highs, however, that wouldn't matter until the new decline ends.... and since you were only looking to take advantage of the decline ... it's ok... or is it? i feel that if more stops accumulate above the new highs and price does not manage to push very much down then the move will attack the newly formed stopzone that is close and significant and therefore the previous day's rally will continue.... my personal opinion lies with option a). whoever favors another option can feel free to argument his/her view.
The thing is: breakout trading works. The other thing is: breakout trading doesn't work. It depends on other factors, like what kind of day it is, what kind of volume is flooding into the market, and what kind of day the last few have been (intermediate and long term trends). My personal opinion. EDIT: case in point: People warned me against it, but I bought the breakout on friday, and immediately one of the meanest bastards in the pit came in and started selling and, long story short, I got a black eye and coughed up my lunch money. Today though, I remembered last Friday and I bought the selloff and, long story short, I got a black eye and coughed up my lunch money.