To all subscribers: I have found that it pays to develop a feel for market rhythyms. That is to say, I have found that there are periods when the markets are dull, and low volatility, and rather than get chopped up, I just don't trade. For me, it is better to take a month off (august is usually the one I choose) rather than lose money trying to "make things happen". I remember Linda Raschke talking about George Taylor's method for categorizing market action as a progression from "sell days, to buy days, to sell short days" and back to the beginning. If I remember right, He thought that this cycle should take about 6-8 trading days to complete. Periodically, I like to work backwards through the intraday charts to see if I can "pick up" this tidal activity. Maybe a better trader could just adapt to the changing conditions,and hey if you can, great, just point and click! For myself, I will continue to stay on the sidelines on days like today. Regards, Steve46
my short entry earlier probably had some flaws. looking at the attached dax chart, it was close to a short setup but according to jr's guidelines the bo bar at 3:45 didn't penetrate the lower bb. considering estx didn't confirm at all probably could of left the short alone.
With regard to market rhythm and cycles, JR made oblique mention of other market phases when this system may not perform as well. Would you mind elaborating on this a bit, JR?
You chose the right market to trade (don't trade the DAX until more experienced, or with a large account) and the right place for a stop-loss so I wouldn't beat yourself up too much. What I would say is that we only had ONE bar pullback in BOTH markets and the EXTX50 pullback bar didn't have a higher high than the pivot's high. So, there were at least two "doubts" about the trade. Of course, "the" trade was just about to come. So unless you were feeling beaten up ...the next trade should have made your money back plus some!
This one felt nearly perfect to me ....Just about every single rule was fulfilled in the DAX. The ESTX50 hadn't had a lower low than the pivot bar, but that should not have stopped you taking this one. It just looked so good! Attached.
This method if applied properly should serve you well no matter what the market phase is. The only time it doesn't is when the market does what it did yesterday. After all, this method isn't about catching big trend days, it's about catching a momentum move and cashing in before the momentum fizzles. That said, I do have a few pullback/reversal trades up my sleeve. But I feel that would be an entirely different thread and it would be way more difficult to put down in some logical understandable format. Those trades are much harder. All I'll say is that my indicators remain the same i.e. just the Bollinger Band and Mov Avg. Just the same four symbols. The only thing that differs is my analysis. Nothing is added from a complication perspective! I feel that to go down that path would distract from this thread. Unless you've got this breakout technique 'down pat', then don't be too quick to look for the next solution
No trades yesterday. Traded the ESTX50 for a change today - good entry but got out after 20 minutes (4 bars) - missed another 20 pt run, grrr. I think I should have reentered on the 5:15 bar. 2 contracts with one target at +5, one runner. pretzel
pretzel, In BT, what does target on runner do? And if you trade just one contract what should be the BE - never and the trailing section- always? lux
"I have always been under the belief that any significant pullback in the ES would occur after the ES makes a marginal new high. For example, the slight pullback at the end of the session today came after a mild new high, and double top around 102.10. My question is: if this turns out to be true, that is, that the ES will fall after making a marginal new high, how can one protect themselves from this false break out? Is it just a discretionary decision?" Your comments would be appreciated. But I don't want to arse kiss too much, or you'll slap me with groupie status, and i'll have to shoot myself. Thanks, Jim