Boys boys boys!! I'll leave you alone for 5 mins, and come back and find you've all gone insane. I think a few people need to re-read Page One! First off, why is anyone charting the ES 24 hours and screwing with the moving average? Did I not say to chart it 09:30 - 16:15 EST only??!! Done this way, the market was in a clear uptrend (as seen by Mov Avg) until at least 10:25 EST, so why anybody was even considering a short is lost on me! The only remote possibility to sell in my mind was the little setup about 10:25/10:30 EST (a 1 bar pullback). There are reasons to take this trade and reasons not to take it. On the plus side: the pullback bar on the YM did have a higher high and the Mov Avg was down on all four symbols. On the minus side: it's only a one bar pullback (remember I said I prefer 2-6 as ideal) and the ES pullback bar did not make a higher high. But OK let's say that you did sell under the 10:25 EST low .... Have we not learnt anything about money management in this thread? Who can remember me saying that if the trade is not profitable after four bars I will often scratch it? What page is that comment on?! The way I see this morning, there really wasn't a trade but if there was one, it was selling under the 10:25 low, and had you done this ...you should NOT have lost money - you should have broken even. Get back to the basics and stop looking for trades that aren't there! What I find interesting is when there really are no trades, the market often does nothing overall. When the market doesn't know which way to go, be thankful you're not in it. Just learn to piss off and come back for the last session or tomorrow. "Looking for" action will kill you. As for thinking that pullback trading is the solution: forget it! What you need to do instead is master breakouts and learn discipline and patience. You can piss your money away on pullbacks later. Here's a reminder of some basics: At the time a pivot low is made, the market must have been moving lower (Mov Avg). I then want to see a pullback of preferably 2-6 bars during which time the Mov Avg does not turn up. With just a little discretion involved via four market analysis! But when the market pulls back with a fucking 45 degree upwards Mov Avg ....forget it ..do nothing & wait for the next pivot! Attached.
The yahoo group is called TWSAPI. Just go to http://groups.yahoo.com/ and register, then join the group. lux
NO, NO and NO! You do not need more indicators. If anyone thinks that is the solution for success then pull your head out your arse. What you need is better skill at doing the simple things. Learn to take small losses and don't sweat it. Otherwise you'll be following the likes of Jack Hershey with 10 fucking indicators on 12 one minute charts ...and pulling your pants down everytime he waffles on. Here is my assessment of his trade, and is has bugger all to do with learning how to "stay with a winner". Instead, it has to do with him making more than $2K in the morning and at worst taking a 2 tick loss if he can't contain his urge to trade in the afternoon. But more indicators? No fucking way! Blow up the attached.
I was a bit ticked about missing that move yesterday afternoon but in the larger scheme of things it probably wasn't that bad of a move to crowd my stop like I did. I was in the mentality that this thing should of moved by now according to your guidleline of bailing after 4-6 bars if the trade isn't moving. Had it not been for a late day flush it was looking like it was about to fissel and wasn't all that bad to bail where I did for a 2 tick loss. That said, I've seen those late day flushes tho too many times in similar setups, I shoulda taken the risk of giving the stop the proper room as I think the chances for a run up were worth the risk. As for this morning I entered about the same time as Vienna however I chose the weaker index which did show a more valid setup. However I did catch myself and realized that ES and YM were both counter to this play and I bailed for a 3pt/lot gain on ESTX50. Entry below 9:45 bar at 10:15/2498 exit about 10 minutes later at 2495. This was a deliberate exit as I realized I didn't belong in this position with ES and YM both in a uptrending MA.
Incidentally, your MA looks to be simple rather than exponential. It's supposed to be exponential, correct?
I know that you want to keep it simple, but using of divergence indicator would enter him long at 1:30 . Much better entry in this particular case. Walter
I went short in YM under the low I have underlined. I know it is too early for the system, but I thought that volume was high enough to warrant a trade. Took profit at $100 where the arrow is pointed and am waiting now for a "real" signal. Edit to add: Looking back, I got pretty freakin lucky on this one. Pretty much covered at the bottom. I am a clever cracker.