Day Trading Thoughts For Wed. Apr. 15

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Apr 15, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    On Monday, President Obama opened a tiny space in the nearly half-century-old U.S. embargo against the communist regime of Fidel Castro in Cuba. Ostensibly, American telecommunications entities will be allowed to commence providing their services for Cubans. Also, restrictions on family ties to the island will be relieved a bit as well. Mind you, the White House machinations do not eliminate the 47 year-old trade embargo, but it is an olive branch of sort to the Cuban government. Forgetting the politics much less potential effectiveness of Obama’s gesture, there is most definitely a day trading aspect to this matter. It is why I implore everyone all the time to pay attention to every piece of major news out there; one can always find opportunities. In this specific case, it was time to think of industries affected. For instance, how many cruise ships would go to Cuba? Sure enough, on Monday, Royal Caribbean (RCL) traded its heaviest volume in over two months yesterday in closing ahead more than 15%. Shares of the Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (symbol:CUBA) rallied a stunning 41% on Monday amid record volume. Thus, pay attention to the headlines; oftentimes, one can find trades out of seemingly nothing- and the stocks can remain in play for some time to come…as they undoubtedly well in this case as rumors (and reality) of the Cuban situation come to fruition.

    Markets overnight were down marginally throughout the world with stocks losing 1% of their value in Tokyo and about 0.5% on average throughout Europe. Oil is up a little, gold is flat, but the bond market is notably strong in the early going. Futures are weaker on INTC’s disappointing outlook, but not dramatically so. It looks to be a somewhat placid day with an increasing flow of earnings news, but nobody in the first-tier (those really start in earnest tomorrow). Yet, with GS indicated weaker anew, there is no rush to own stocks albeit no outflow with a flush of the futures. For the day, it is a dangerous intra-day environment with a relative dearth of news and a lot of options squaring. Look for marginal downside action, but keep on eye on BAC/C in particular because if the banks begin turning back up, they will lift the market with a ceiling over things as INTC seemingly caps any major rally today.

    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-

    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    CSX- good earnings

    EBAY- spinning off its Skype division

    CYH- among other hospital stocks which rallied after HCA announced a lower patient bad-debt ratio

    EGLE- strongest of the dry bulk shippers; closed near a high

    BSDM- closed near a high on terrific strength after receiving FDA clearance for their BSD 510k

    CPE- closed near the high of the day yesterday

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    INTC- beat earnings for quarter, but issued hazy forward guidance

    LLTC- poor earnings

    FNF- closed near a low after announcing a stock offering; offering for 15.8 million shares priced at 19 last night

    GS- an ugly day yesterday; closed on its low…MS should move in sympathy

    COF- closed near a low

    PNC, BAC, ASBC, CBSH- among the banks closing on or near their lows of the day

    VNO, SPG- among the weak REIT’s which closed near their lows of the day

    INFY- poor earnings

    ABT- neutral earnings, but lukewarm guidance

    LUFK- missed earnings estimates significantly

    COF- rate of bad-loans increased sharply in March from February…8.08% to 9.33%.

    KMT- warned badly on outlook

    BTU- missed earnings estimates by a wide margin









    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny