Day Trading Thoughts For Thurs. Jan. 22

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Jan 22, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    You know, I was all jazzed up to do a column on one of seven topics I have in mind (all of which will come out over the next few days), but I am going to take a pause from the economic and financial aspect of this space to devote a paragraph to something that is very important- an aspect of trading psyche I don’t discuss very often. I constantly use the word ‘preparation’ as part of the daily schematic of any trader. Every trader must have a plan of if-when’s. Well, part of that plan involves ‘flying by the seat of your pants.’ It is certainly one of my weaker characteristics as a trader so I for one constantly monitor myself when things are not going quite as I expect them to go. Yesterday, in my market prognostication section, I wrote this: "The markets seem poised for a bit of a bounce after one of the worst one-day performances for the financial sector ever yesterday. The guide today will, again, be the banks. There should be some selling right into the initial pop this morning…the guide to whether the markets hold will be those aforementioned banks. If things like STT, BK, NTRS, C, and BAC give way, the market is going to have a horrible day today; if the initial strength holds, look for a weak A-B-A2 off of the morning higher in a technical rebound. I am not bright enough to know which of these will happen, but will trade accordingly within the dynamic of one of those two scenearios.”

    Let’s parse this a bit. I first wrote that the markets were due for a bounce. This was true. I then noted we should follow the banks as the banks have led the market for a few days now. This was true. I then said to look for selling after the initial bounce. This occurred. Now, let’s really focus on that last part. Again, I said to look for the banks because that would either lead to more selling if they sold off, but if they held, the market would bounce. I apologize for basically rehashing everything, but it’s important to make sure you understand this: I didn’t know what would happen exactly. But (and it is a big ol’ ‘but’), I was ready for anything. When the banks held for the most part with stocks like BK, NTRS, and PNC up strongly, it provide a leg for the market to stand upon and I traded accordingly. Yet, I know of two people who spoke with me yesterday who did not trade accordingly. One had no idea of why he had his worst day of trading he’d ever had- as of early afternoon yesterday. I asked him if he was doing anything different than normal. He said “no.” I said, “well, I have one more question for you. When is the first time you bought a stock today. Not shorted, but went long?” He did not answer. And I had my answer. Adaptability. He was so convinced that the market was going to go down that he just kept losing money in trying to make that belief come to pass rather than go with the flow. The second committed another cardinal mistake. He overtraded. Instead of waiting for things to happen, he too tried to force the action- but it did not matter whether long or short. And every time he would do a trade, he’d do it with some degree of size. I study every trade I do. Literally. One of the things I preach incessantly is that if you do not see a path to make at least 20 cents per share rather easily in a given trade, do not do the trade. The reason for this – speaking for me is that when I get long or short, say 10000 shares of a stock in a tight range such as Yahoo (YHOO) and it moves a couple cents against me, I force myself out to keep the loss small. Well, many times, trades will not immediately go your way- certainly not my way- ergo, if one does enough YHOO trades like that, one racks up high trading volume totals, but high losses as well. So, I beg and I plead daily- be prepared for anything. But today, let me focus on the cousin to that- be prepared for anything and adapt accordingly and quickly. Otherwise, your day trading career will be over rapidly.

    Markets in Asia were up mildly overnight- about 1% average with the gains extending to Europe as well. State-side, futures are up mildly on the JPM and AAPL news, but the terrible NOK earnings are tempering the gains a bit with futures likely to be negative by the time by 8:15AM ET if not before. With almost everyone I’ve spoken to anticipating a small sell-off/bout of profit taking on the open, it makes me a little weary of a short covering run. Thus, I look for a choppy start, but some extended gains thereafter in the stocks that are the strongest shortly after the open. Thereafter, the choppiness will likely resume with trading likely on both sides of unchanged for most of the morning and early afternoon. After that, time to look back to the banks for a trend into the close.

    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-

    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    AAPL- smashed earnings for quarter; warned big-time for next quarter but guidance better than whisper number

    BNI- beat earnings slightly

    FFIV- beat earnings by a lot

    RJF- beat earnings

    PLCM- beat earnings

    JPM- CEO Dimon bought 500,000 shares a few days ago; could be perceived as support for stock because if the CEO thinks it is ‘cheap,’ it may be

    WFC- reversal yesterday and closed near high

    EQR- reversal and closed near high

    BAC- exploded yesterday upon news that CEO bought stock in company; same as JPM here- why would a CEO buy the stock unless he thought it was cheap? In this case, may mean BAC not going to be nationalized.

    IDCC- up strongly yesterday on receiving a patent; closed near high

    IBM- closed near high

    ABT- closed near a high

    ISTA- positive phase II study

    BBT- met earnings, but in this day and age, that’s pretty good

    CMA- missed earnings slightly, but again, not horribly so being viewed as a positive

    ESI- beat earnings and raised guidance

    LUV- beat earnings and lowered fuel cost projections

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    EBAY –warned on earnings

    DOX- terrible earnings

    STX- missed earnings

    KMP- missed earnings

    PVH- warned on earnings
    JCI- bizarrely weak in closing near the low of the day

    ECLP- warned on earnings

    LMT- warned on its outlook

    NOK- bad earnings

    STI- bad earnings

    POT- bad earnings























    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny
  2. Thank you again for taking to time to coach. Great post. -Melissa
  3. ERIK,
    I usually pick a few stocks to focus on and go with them. i sit patiently and wait for my entry which is never triggered unless i have a solid exit i will be looking at SYNA. why SYNA ? its a derivative play on AAPL and tends to move nicely. i am expecting SYNA to hit 22 quickly and then possibly visit the 23
    if none of my trades follow my script,i then may look for a few "stand outs" in the market and wait for bases to be established on the daily charts and then look for resistantce levels. all the while following disciplined stop loss strategies.
  4. zdreg


    what other suppliers to apple are you familar with?

  5. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    Trader 2K- love your disclipline

    Other derviative offshoots are things like RIMM ( a competitor play) and PALM.

    And since I will clearly be wrong on my market forecast today, I hark back to the schpiel I wrote out- seat of your pants day. For instance, SYNA may well prove correct as thesis still there, but numbers for entries/exits need to be changed...

    Good luck.
  6. ERIK,
    a monkey wrench has been thrown into my SYNA idea. MSFT just warned and now will refrain from issuing guidence because things are so bad. i will still watch SYNA and NVEC(not an appl play) and see what happens. i am now on the defensive.
  7. Good commentary, as always, Erik. Please keep it coming.