Day Trading Thoughts For Thurs. Apr. 30

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, Apr 30, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    I am at an age now (aka old) that I begin noticing more subtle things. I can differentiate between the cries of my infant daughter. I know when I ask my wife what is wrong and she says “nothing,” I can tell exactly how serious she is in the intonation. I know when my car is not acting right. But I am also that much more of a ‘listener’ to the markets. I preach all the time that we as traders should let the markets tell us how to trade rather than make our own guesswork and we got a subtle yet high-pitched squeal yesterday morning…certainly for a day trade. I even mentioned it briefly in yesterday’s market comment piece. The latest GDP report came out much worse than expected. In English, the economy is doing even worse than the wise economists opined when asked to give their estimates to services such as Dow Jones and Reuters. When a terrible economic number comes out, one would expect the market to fall. Indeed, S&P futures fell a couple or three handles when the GDP number was released, but within two minutes, all the ground had been regained and the market was even higher. That signaled to me that the news was already in the market plus if the market could not go down on that horrible piece of news, my trading for the day would be focused to the long side- and that is exactly what I did. I did not try to guess why the market performed as it did; I just went with it. So, as I try to improve on this facet of my trading performance on a daily basis, the daily epiphany is two-fold: 1) the tone of the market is very strong right now. It can change at a moment’s notice of course, but wow- yesterday was impressive. 2) Pay attention to what the market is telling you. Know the newsflow and have a rudimentary understanding of major events like economic reports; by doing so, one can actually earn a day’s pay trading equities.

    Foreign markets soared overnight on the heels of Wall Street’s rally yesterday. Markets throughout Asia were up 3% to 4% across the board while prices in Europe are up 2% to 3%. There seems to be no real catalyst for the rally other than an increasing belief that the banking system is going to survive this financial crisis. Futures are sharply higher again and there just isn’t any real reason to see this changing as we approach some pretty big numbers on the S&P chart. Short covering is in vogue and that is that right now. Look for a continued upside day on the busiest earnings day of the season. It will likely be a bit calmer than yesterday; use banks as your benchmark, but it seems like the firm tone is going to hold ahead of Monday’s stress test results release.


    Reiterating-
    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    MGM- received a reprieve for its CityCenter deal in restructuring debt; LVS and WYNN may move with it

    F,GM- rumors after the close that teh government may utilize TARP money to buy equity or debt stakes in the automakers

    AKAM- good earnings

    TRIB closed on a high

    SRZ- closed on a high

    NFP –closed near a high

    PNRA- on “Mad Money”

    TWC- closed on a high after posting good earnings

    FSLR- great earnings

    CTXS- good earnings

    GMR- great earnings

    OI- great earnings

    TRN-great earnings

    VARI- great earnings

    GMCR- terrific earnings

    FLS- great earnings

    CCI- good earnings

    AMKR good earnings

    ARRS- good earnings

    SKX- great earnings

    TTEK- good earnings

    ORLY- decent earnings

    WYN- closed near a high

    AMG- closed near a high after posting great earnings

    CELG- good earnings

    CLI- good earnings
    DOW- great earnings

    HOT- good earnings

    MOT- good earnings

    NWL- good earnings

    PCX- good earnings

    PG- good earnings

    TNDM- good earnings

    TYC- good earnings

    WPI- good earnings

    ASH- good earnings

    CL- good earnings

    IP- good earnings

    NRG- good earnings



    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern


    SQNM- company indicated researchers falsified documentation on its lead drug

    V- beat earnings, but volume growth slowed; MA may move with it

    URI- terrible earnings

    JDSU- terrible guidance

    CVD- poor earnings

    ITRI- terrible earnings

    CBL- bad earnings

    NTRI- poor earnings

    FTI- bad earnings

    AIZ- bad earnings

    VAR- bad earnings

    HAR- poor earnings

    RYL- bad earnings

    HIW- bad earnings

    DRIV- bad earnings

    RE- bad earnings

    CAVM- bad earnings

    FORM- bad earnings

    RNR- bad earnings

    MANT- bad earnings

    AVB- bad earnings

    CI- bad earnings

    EK- bad earnings

    OSK- bad earnings









    Earnings:

    THURS APR 30 BEFORE

    AHL APA ASH

    AWI AZN BBW

    BC BRY BWA

    CELG CI CINF

    CL CLI CMI

    CMS COCO COV

    CTL D DLR

    DOW DPZ DRE

    EK EQR EQT

    ERIC ETH EXPE

    FAF FMX GEO

    GTI GTIV HOS

    HOT HP HS

    IFF IP IRM

    ITG K KBR

    KIM KSU LNT

    LZ MFA MOT

    MRO MYL NBL

    NEM NRG NU

    NVO NWL NYX

    OC OCR OMX

    OSK PCBC PCX

    PDE PEI PG

    PTEN RGC RYN

    SBH SEPR SPR

    STRA SWY TNDM

    TRH TRV TSM

    TYC WMX WPI

    XEL XOM


    THURS APR 30 AFTER

    ACS ARBA ATHN

    ATO BGC BMRN

    CAB CHH CMO

    CPT CQB DLB

    ELY FISV FR

    GPRO HIG IM

    IN ITMN MCRS

    MET MFE MTD

    MTW MWW MXIM

    NETL NFG NLY

    NST NTCT PKI

    QLGC SQNM SSD

    TEG TSRA TSYS

    UGI VPRT VSEA

    XRAY

    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny