Yesterday for the first Wednesday morning in quite some time, there was something I did not do: halt everything and stare at my computer terminal at 10:30AM for the weekly oil inventories report. From the positive perspective, it is shows how little oil is correlated with the market these days because I didnât think to look plus my focus was elsewhere. From the negative perspective, well, my focused was elsewhere and I didnât think to look. Letâs briefly discuss both points. As far as oil is concerned, everyone tracked oil at this point last year to the point where many trading operations did their trades with a darn near inverse tick-for-tick oil to S&P 500 futures mindset. It is almost impossible to believe, but it is still less than a year that oil was selling for over 100 dollars a barrel higher than it is now. As time went on, the correlation swung the other way; falling oil prices were viewed as a negative for the worldwide economy. Thus, for awhile, as the market rallied, so would oil and vice versa. But now? Now the markets are much more focus on things like the survival of the banking system with oil way on the backburner. Moral 1: donât stare at oil on any given day right now for clues as to where the market goes. As for the second point, even though it is not good to stare at oil prices, it is also not good not to glance either. As traders, we must be attuned to every piece of news there is that can move markets; it is why I tend to be so very busy during earnings seasons. While information overload is not good obviously, I do what I can to simply keep up rather than try to know every piece of minutia. And the fact of the matter is that a particular bad or good oil report can provide a jolt still because of the whole âworld economyâ paradigm in that building or declining inventories can signal the temperature of the economy. Thus, moral 2: donât repeat my mistake; indeed, oil prices broke fairly hard right at 10:30AM yesterday and it was an opportunity missed. Daily epiphany: One must keep up with every major piece of news (even oil news) because one never knows where the next trade may exist. Markets in Asia were up a bit overnight with the Nikkei up over 1% and the Hang Seng over 2%. The European bourses are generally up slightly with the DAX down slightly. State-side, futures are up a bit with techs leading the way; there seems to be no real reason for that to change despite yesterday afternoonâs freaky sell-off. I am looking for a grinding generally upside session with the best trades coming in techs and the myriad of earnings plays out there. Reiterating- Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea. If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern AAPL- good earnings EBAY- good earnings QCOM/BRCM- on verge of finally announcing settlement NUVA- great earnings CMG- terrific earnings YUM- great earnings EFX- good earnings PTV- great earnings TSCO- good earnings ABMD- received 510k clearance on its lead device WGOV- good earnings NE- good earnings FMER, TOL- featured on âMad Moneyâ last night DOX- decent earnings XLNX, NVLS- decent earnings DO- good earnings FITB- great earnings HSY- good earnings MAR- good earnings NIHD- good earnings PNC- good earnings RTN- good earnings STI- good earnings ZMH- good earnings RSH- good earnings ESI- good earnings OXY- good earnings NVS- good earnings RCL- good earnings UNP- good earnings JBLU- great earnings LCC- good earnings MI- good earnings COP- good earnings DLX- good earnings EXC- good earnings ABC- good earnings Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern BCR- poor earnings VMW- atrocious earnings FFIV- poor earnings TMK- poor earnings LRCX- bad earnings WCN- closed near a low ARE- closed near a new trend lowâ¦scary considering most other REITâs are well off of their lows SVR- closed near low of day CVA- closed near low of day RJF- bad earnings BG- bad earnings NCR- bad earnings POT- lowered guidance TMO â bad earnings ALXN- bad earnings CIT- bad earnings BDK- bad earnings NOV- bad earnings HSC- bad earnings Earnings: THURS APR 23 BEFORE ABC ALK ALXN AN AUO AVT BDK BG BHE BLL CBE CIT CLP CLS CME COP CP DHR DLX DO EMC ESI ESV EXC EXP FCF FITB GDI GMT GR HSC HSY IGT IVZ JBLU JNS LCC LH LLL LTM MAR MI NCR NFX NIHD NOV NUE NVS ODFL OMTR ORI OXY PENN PEP PM PNC POOL POT RCL ROP RS RTN RX SCG SEIC SIAL SPWRA STI SU SVU TASR TCB TMO UCBI UNP UPS VLY WCC WTNY ZMH THURS APR 23 AFTER ACF ALGN AMGN AMZN ATHR AVCT AXP BNI BUCY CAKE CATY CB CF CNW CPHD CYBS CYN DDR DECK DFG DV EMN EZPW FII FNB GBCI GRA IBKR INFA INSU JNPR KLAC MHK MSCC MSFT NFLX NTY PMCS RMBS RVBD SIVB SKT STAR STSA SWKS SYNA WDC WFR YRCW Good luck today. Erik R. Kolodny
Happy Birthday ERIK!!!! Today is Erik Kolodny's birthday. As his content is of amazing value to our community at Epiphany Trading, Elite Trader, his blog readers, the Epiphany Chat and audio, I am taking this space to thank him for his work. If you have appreciation for his work, here and today is as good as anytime to say thank you. Brendan P. Byrne, President Epiphany Trading, LLC
Happy birthday Erik and once again thank you for sharing your thoughts every morning! I appreciate it very much!
You're a none sponsor and you should not be here mentioning the title of your website (business). All it will do is raise suspicion about Erik's agenda after seeing you spam in other message posts today elsewhere here at ET about the services you offer. However, please note that I do know that ET management sometimes are a little slow in that you may actually be now a paying sponsor but they forgot to put the sponsor title below your name (it's happen before in the past with other sponsors). If that's the case, you're now a sponsor... Please ignore my message. P.S. Lately ET management has set new standards by ignoring it's own TOU policy via allowing a select few to mention their services while not officially being sponsors. Simply, I wouldn't be surprise if they have already decided to allow you to continue doing what your doing. To ET moderators, if that's true...please delete my message post. Mark
Erik, you need to tell Brendan to take a week off from posting here and you may want to check out some of the stuff he's been posting under the Epiphany name. You probably won't be too happy about it.
Anonymous, Feel free to contact me directly. Erik is my partner. We have mutual trust an respect. Epiphany Trading is having tremendous success as of late. If you have additional suggestions, you can email email Erik or I directly. More so, I have looked back at your past posts. You are merely a heckler with no value add to any trader. EMAILS REMOVED
Brendan, I already sent Erik a PM detailing your ridiculous attempt to advertise your upcoming seminar disguised as a 'question' about whether you made the right move by cutting Nison a check before you actually knew whether he was an authority. With regard to my posts here, I call 'em like I see 'em. There are several people who posted in the same vein in that 'thread' you started today. I've done my best to be a contributing member. If you see it differently, I respect your opinion, even if I disagree. At least I'm not a spammer.
EpiphanyTrading, your email contact information has been removed. Unless you are a sponsor here, please do not post links or email addresses indirectly soliciting business/response. Should you wish to become a sponsor, you may PM "Baron" and he can give you information on becoming one. Thank you.