Day Trading Thoughts For Fri. May 8

Discussion in 'Trading' started by erikrkolodny, May 8, 2009.

  1. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    ‘They” always say that a bell is not rung at a top or a bottom, but sometimes if one just pays attention to his/her surroundings, one can learn a heck of a lot. Yesterday morning at precisely 9:25AM, I got up from my desk to take a very quick 100 foot walk to collect my thoughts a bit and to get my eyes away from the computer screen I’d been staring at for the last three hours as I’d been trading since 6:30AM and simply needed a breather. When I got back about a minute later, I learned that an individual twice as smart and four times as nice as I am decided he wanted to buy positions in three stocks off of the open and hold them all day. That was the first time I’d heard that type of conversation in a very long time. It was all I needed to definitively formulate my battle plan for the balance of the day- pointedly sell short weakness. Again, the plan was for the day- not necessarily for day(s)…just intra-day trading. When people become so convinced that the market is headed in one direction that they are willing to stay quiet the rest of the day, what it tells me is that a lot of traders would buy stock on the open but not be around to do it later…well, that creates a vacuum. And all that learned simply from listening to the conversation around me. From the open to the close (the stocks closed around 5, 6 ½, and 2 ½ respectively on Wednesday), they fell 5 cents, 1.50, and 60 cents respectively. On 2,000 shares each, that would have resulted in a total net loss of $4,300 if he went through with it (which he did- and he did by far the worst of any trader at my firm yesterday). I could have easily simply faded the strategy, but a)there is such a thing as karma and b) it’d take away from my point: I espouse precise entries and rapid exits; my average time horizon for a trade is just under two minutes on average. Now, I understand that everyone does not share this belief, but as I commemorate my 13th anniversary of the first full day of my career today, I do know what doesn’t work consistently- namely blindly buying stocks if for no other reason than they’ve been rising (and vice versa of course). Thus the daily epiphany: nobody is going to spoon feed you things; I try to do that to the best of my abilities via the idea list found in this daily space. I’ve been blessed in this business else I wouldn’t be around still so I do what I can to try to help when I can. However, by simply taking heed of the words and deeds of those around you, you can learn a tremendous amount not only about other people, but also things which can refine your own trading.

    Markets overnight in Asia were up just under 1% with European bourses up 1% to 2% across the board. All other markets (commodities, bonds, et al) are steady. State-side, futures are strong after the stress test results generally came in a little better than expected (companies like STT did not need capital). Unemployment was not good, but it was better than expected with 535K jobs lost instead of the 600K consensus. The tone is fantastic overall; the share offerings are coming in below market (MS 24, WFC 22 for instance), but the stocks are holding. Look for a calmer day today; it is finally sunny in the New York area after 10 days of rain with earnings season 93% over, unemployment out, and stress test results out. Let the bank stocks dictate the way today (once again), but be aware that the moves- particularly in the morning- will be exaggerated so have especially tight stops.

    Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
    If the whole story is not there -
    If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-

    Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

    BAC, JPM, COF, GS, FITB, PNC, USB, STT, STI, BK, C, RF, KEY, BBT, MET, AXP- all viewed as positive after stress test reports based on last night’s trading…please please please please review the terms of each bank for full knowledge.

    HBAN, FRT, ONNN- mentioned positively on “Mad Money”

    VRSN- good earnings

    ATVI- decent earnings

    MIL- great earnings

    HANS- great earnings

    FSYS- great earnings

    IPI- good earnings

    PSA- good earnings

    THOR- good earnings

    PCR- good earnings

    EBS- great earnings

    SD- decent earnings

    TX- closed on a high

    AVAV- closed on a high

    KOP- closed near a high

    MIR- decent earnings

    Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

    WFC, MS, STI- fell after hours last night with WFC and MS announcing share offerings

    IBOC- mentioned in “Sell Block” on “Mad Money”

    GNW- bad earnings

    ALL- bad earnings

    DNDN- block of stock to be sold between 18.80 and 19.20 and doing share offering

    CROX- atrocious earnings

    NVDA- bad earnings

    CBS- bad earnings

    CSTR- bad earnings

    MCHP- bad earnings

    BYI- bad earnings

    IRF- bad earnings

    KFN- bad earnings

    PGH- bad earnings

    RATE- bad earnings

    FNF- closed near a low

    ENER- closed near a low

    IPHS- closed near a low

    DPTR- doing 150 million share offering at 1.50









    Good luck today.

    Erik R. Kolodny
  2. Erik,

    Is there a reason why you stopped posting your blog on this site? Was it the nasty hecklers. If so, that is a shame. Is there a chance that you will be posting it anytime soon?
  3. erikrkolodny

    erikrkolodny ET Sponsor

    Very long story short, I tried to do what I thought was a good thing here. While I got a lot of very positive feedback (and some very deserved constructive negative feedback), I realized I was letting myself be overly annoyed by some petty individuals with nothing better to do with their time. I found that what was supposed to be a wonderful project instead was turning into something that was a distraction for me and an unneeded sideshow for readers here.

    I've been posting my blog on my company's website for quite some time now so feel free to look me up there if you're interested in reading my commentaries. You can Google me if you wish; I do not want to put my company's name here out of deference to the guidelines of this forum. My name is the same as my user name (Erik R. Kolodny).

  4. Please continue to share your thoughts, erik. I will do my best to keep the trolls out. Would you mind if i change this thread to "Daily Trading Thoughts" and you just post in one thread every day? It's better than having a ton of threads.
  5. whew!!!
  6. Did Erik post somewhere else on here? If so, how do I find it? Under Erik Kolodny or Epiphany Trading?