This is what I wrote: "Most notably is that it will be rumor-driven. Prices are likely to stage a small rally mid-morning as shorts take in some of their good fortune, but if there is no major development to shift sentiment intra-day, the sell-off will likely gain steam as the day progresses." There was indeed a major development in that the White House came in and said that the Feds would ostensibly do whatever it took to keep the autos afloat. I for one did not see that happening this morning and that did change sentiment. In fact, as GM went unch, I bought a decent slog of the stock at 4.12 and sold it respectably higher. It is, indeed, about reacting to the news. I cut and pasted what I did with the time stamp: 12:08:48 Filled GM SELL 700 700 0 NSDQSTGY 4.15 4.1500 12:07:55 Filled GM SELL 800 800 0 NSDQSTGY 4.22 4.2200 12:07:26 Filled GM SELL 1500 1500 0 NSDQSTGY 4.24 4.2400 12:05:33 Filled GM BUY 3000 3000 0 NSDQSTGY 4.12 4.1200 Be well, Erik QUOTE]Quote from smilingsynic: Well put. On the S&P (March ES), the overnight low was exactly a 50% retrace of the all-time lows to the most recent high. And yet the total sum of the recent bad news is greater now than when the market hit that low. The market's discounting of bad news may well have already begun. [/QUOTE]
I really do not know...I do a blueprint of the day, but then truly focus on trades which last 1-3 minutes. For now, I am watching the market rally and simply trying to get in and out of positions on the long side...philosophical discussions like the Madoff thing are beyond my intellectual scope looking out at a long-term horizon. QUOTE]Quote from hittinbidz: Thank you gentlemen. Finally, a thread of which quality thoughts are shared. Lets try to keep it. Does anyone have any thoughts of what is the next shoe to drop? Can this Madoff scandal lead to more redemptions, ie selling? Erik, What do you think? [/QUOTE]
This may be the next shoe to drop. The lack of confidence in the non regulated hedge fund arena. Redemptions will be be coming in droves. There will also be the dismantling of existing funds. Ask yourself this. If your fund was down 50%, thus needing 100% from here to meet the high water mark. Would it better serve you to start with a clean slate? The selling is coming. We are in a bear market. I don't know how to send the direct link, but Erik wrote it in his blog less than 2 weeks ago, www.ErikKolodny.com
There are several public HF's. AMG has some meat on it's bones. Anybody else got any ideas? preferably, find one we know is a Ponzi scheme. That 'd be a pretty good edge.