Day trading is losers game

Discussion in 'Trading' started by oilfxpro, May 17, 2011.

  1. ssss

    ssss

    You can check trading record's/report's in real money competitons

    Each month some 20 000 -50 000 competitors

    One result 12 000 % per month + 25000 $ price money

    from 1296 $ until 166266$ in one month + 25000 $ price money

    http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/OCT2011/octtradereport1st.pdf

    some 7-8 result's in range 2000 -3000 %


    http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html

    But it is only game theory
    ###################

    Lotto ...

    Juni 2012 1809 % trading record

    http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/JUN2012/junetradereport1st.pdf
     
    #491     Jul 28, 2012

  2. No, it's survivor bias.
     
    #492     Jul 28, 2012
  3. If you can achieve a good hit rate of 60 to 80 % , by being very selective on trade entries and exits , there is the answer of the advantage of trader.Out of potential 50 entries , take 10 to 15 , 5 will lose money , another 7 will make enough to recover those losses , the market will give 2 trades for the profit , on average a profit of about 50 pips for 24 hour session.

    I found most intraday entries almost 98 % , had no more than 50 % chance of a profit and risk reward of < than 1 .I take 20 % of the entries and hope 2 % will make up the profits , that is 2 out of 10 to 15 trades ,most of the trades make no money overall.It is frustrating to first get 8 losing trades , until you catch that winning trade at the end of the day.

    Some days 10 trades make nothing overall , just one trades makes it worthwhile.This one large move will give the profits.Trend trading /breakout trading with wide stops is the same , in that the few winners make all the profit, the only problem with wide stops is you need bigger profits and huge trends and that is very rare.
     
    #493     Jul 29, 2012
  4. Thanks for the update CD
     
    #494     Jul 29, 2012
  5. As a retail trader , spread of 1 pip is easily covered by trading these large moves .
     
    #496     Jul 29, 2012
  6. how long have you been making money at trading currency? i'm not a jerk looking to be a jerk i'm just curious.. i've never met anyone that was a professional at trading currency that had a long track record of doing well doing it.. i'm looking to trade options on the euro
     
    #497     Jul 29, 2012
  7. #498     Jul 29, 2012
  8. ssss

    ssss

    oilfxpro


    Registered: Oct 2007
    Posts: 1038

    wrote ...




    If you can achieve a good hit rate of 60 to 80 % ,
    #################################

    Don Quixote ...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EXYcG9f3Uo


    Without any scientific matter ...
    ------------------------------------


    If bet = potencial profit ,long term hit rate = 50 %
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Example

    Take case of small deviation and (!) no bid ask spread

    SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

    with Target 138
    Stop loss 140

    Profit = Loss 1:1

    After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)






    ...........


    oilfxpro


    Registered: Oct 2007
    Posts: 1038

    wrote ...






    by being very selective on trade entries and exits , there is the answer of the advantage of trader.Out of potential 50 entries , take 10 to 15 , 5 will lose money , another 7 will make enough to recover those losses , the market will give 2 trades for the profit , on average a profit of about 50 pips for 24 hour session.

    I found most intraday entries almost 98 % , had no more than 50 % chance of a profit and risk reward of < than 1 .I take 20 % of the entries and hope 2 % will make up the profits , that is 2 out of 10 to 15 trades ,most of the trades make no money overall.It is frustrating to first get 8 losing trades , until you catch that winning trade at the end of the day.

    Some days 10 trades make nothing overall , just one trades makes it worthwhile.This one large move will give the profits.Trend trading /breakout trading with wide stops is the same , in that the few winners make all the profit, the only problem with wide stops is you need bigger profits and huge trends and that is very rare.
     
    #499     Jul 29, 2012
  9. ssss

    ssss

    Statistic


    Frankfurt Stock exchange Paper money 12 week contest

    http://handelsblatt.boerse-frankfur...sionid=FFE313B72134DB9D3AD543BCA0D1E257.web03

    Rule -1 position not more as 10 % ,derivative not more as 10 % of Portofolio .Real time quote

    15000 Competiror's

    After 11 week`s
    ###################

    only 33% in profit (5000 from 15000 )
    ####################

    only 412 contestant`s from 15000 have profit more as 10%
    only 95 contestant`s from 15000 have profit 30+ %
    only 51 profit more as 50%
    only 26 more as 75%
    only 4 more as 300% (leader 860 %)
     
    #500     Jul 29, 2012