Day trading is losers game

Yes. A buddy of mine in our group keeps trying to sell me on this RSI overbought/oversold bullshit with an arbitrary stop of 2 dollars. So I ask him if he's trading GOOG or WFC. He says it doesn't matter, you just use a hard stop of 2 bucks.

I didn't even argue with him. I just hung up the phone.

 

True friends don't recommend anything to do with gambling or where their friend is going to get fxxkced up

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236978

Only experts are recommendatory for their selfish gain.

 

It's funny, a couple years ago, I would have made some snarky comment about your friend, now, as a trader who has come to the end of the road, all I want to do is go back and tell others where they are, as I have been there already.

That said, your friend has not yet found that stops must be relative to the volatility of the instrument. Two bucks on GOOG is going to get you sliced up. Two bucks on C, not so bad a stop.

Tell him to research volatility.

 

One of the dangers of public forums dealing with delicate subjects. Anonymous posing as experts posting very dangerous fallacies.

 

Which fallacies could be considered very dangerous in trading? It is a pretty benign activity.

 

The scary thing is that he has been at this as long as I have. Mid 90's. He's panicking and grasping. It's scary to watch.

I just don't think there is anything better than price. When you are short, and the RSI or STOCH is pegged at 100, you fall into hope mode. I personally don't like that feeling. He should know that.

 

Never said it wasn't. I only pointed out that derivative markets are of that nature because of the equal long anf short interest.

 

Trading in any commodity becomes zero sum (negative sum for the sticklers) if it is traded as a derivative, because of the equal long and short interest.

 

part 1

Dear traders,

I can trade all markets. I have hundreds of statistics of stocktrades, commodity trades and currency trades.

But i only want to trade FX and commodities, because there are the 24 hour markets and the most volume and that is for my trading the best playing field.

I could trade stocks and i would trade them in the same way as i do all the other markets. But aslong there are faster moving markets, i mean tick by tick and of course leverage - i have no need for it. I am a short term trader, as long term trader, it makes no difference, there i also could trade ETFs.....but in my short term analysis they are two different worlds........

I dont want swan events, i only trade statistic data, get in and out of the trade in a given time.

15% a day on a stock, so what, if you trade with leverage you can make 100% of your account in a few days.

I must be 100% accurate always all the time.

There is not such an thing as a easier market to trade, every market have its own behaviours, you must study precisly, before trading it.

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I didnt know where to post this, but now i post it here:

William D. Gann: 90% winrate trader in Stocks and Commodities.
Cycle analist, statistican and master in the stochastic proccess.

Introducing W.D Gann
WD Gann was born on a farm some 7 miles out of Lufkin, Texas at 10.34am on 6 June 1878. He was first born of 11 children, 2 girls and 8 other boys to Sam H. Gann, and Susan R. Gann.

At 13, Gann travelled the trains selling cigars and newspapers. In so doing, he overheard many conversations on investing—he listened.
Gann wondered if it were indeed possible to predict the future. Many conversations he had overheard seemed to revolve around predicting the prices that their cotton would bring. Was it possible?

Gann moved to New York in 1903 at the age of 25 and began working at a major Wall Street Brokerage house. During the First World War, he and his family moved from Manhattan to Brooklyn. Gann reportedly predicted the November 9, 1918 abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war.
W.D. Gann began by studying the basic principles of price patterns and philosophy on how to accumulate wealth, and keep it. After becoming successful, he wanted to know why and how markets, and numbers repeated under certain time cycles. This led to further studies of ancient geometry and astrology.This research led to Gann accumulating over 50 million dollars up until his death on the 18th June 1955.

 

part 2

WD Gann became the only Financial Astrologer of his time. A quote in the Journal of Commerce on the 15th January 1921 states, “His calculations are based on the Science of letters, Numbers and Astrology”. It has been said that Gann used planes to inspect crops, however this is highly unlikely as he knew in advance what the market was doing. This is proven in “Tunnel thru the air” where he forecast the exact top and price of cotton on 8th September 1927 at 24.40 (page 196), also on page 208 of “How to make profits in Commodities” for the exact time and price. He also forecast that the stock exchange would close due to panic selling on 3rd October 1931, the low was on 5th October and the market rallied from 85.51 to a high of 119.15 on 9th November 1931 as predicted in “Tunnel thru the air” on page 321 to 323. The book was published on 9th May 1927. It was possible that the planes were a tax deduction and he flew the money he made to a South American bank account.

Since his death, W.D. Gann has become something of a legend in financial circles. His capacity to make big financial gains (both on the market, the Cuban lottery and horse racing) gave him a reputation for uncanny foreknowledge of market trends. The rumour circulates even now that he would enter his numbers at the Cuban lottery on one date and fly to Cuba on the day of the selection in his private plane flown by his young female pilot to pick up his winnings without waiting for prior notification. He is said to have predicted WW1 in 1914 and the resulting panic in stocks. In March of 1918 he predicted the end of the war and the Kaiser’s abdication. He predicted improvements in business in 1921 and in November 1928 he forecasted the end of the Bull Market in stocks for September 3, 1929. He was often dead right in the 20’s and 30’s regarding the price variations in cotton and wheat. In 1935, of 98 trades in cotton, grain and rubber, 83 trades showed a profit. His percentage of profitable trades was often 90% and higher. Stories of this sort have led speculators and traders to ask just how it was that he achieved his stunning successes.

Gann was the author of numerous books on trading in which he hinted at his secret, yet upon close study of his works, the real secret eludes us. Instead, Gann himself suggests a mystical source for his methods. In one of his books. “The Magic Word,” Gann promises “health, happiness and prosperity through the magic word, Jehovah”. He treats the reader to a baffling pilgrimage through the most mystical parts of the Bible, often repeating himself and frequently asserting that, in some way (which he never makes explicit), Jehovah (which he calls “the Lost Word”) is the key to the good things in life.

Numerous hints in Gann’s writings alert the astute reader to his Masonic membership. The allusion to Jehovah as the Lost Word in the work cited above, for instance, is recognisable to Royal Arch Masons. W.D. Gann was a member of Commonwealth-Stella Lodge No. 409, Free & Accepted Masons, New York City. Yet his Masonic career is not the key to his successes on Wall Street. He was made a Mason on December 15, 1922 and “raised” a Master Mason on March 27, 1923. He “demitted”, ie. Dropped his Masonic affiliation in 1939. Gann himself was reported as saying that his “biggest discovery” was made in New York City in 1908. Whatever his secret, he discovered it long before his was a Mason.

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Interview with Mr. Gann:

Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic theyact in accordance with periodic law."
1
"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law, and aCause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can bedetermined years in advance. ... Everything moves in cycles as a resultof the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of the past, I havediscovered what cycles repeat in the future."
2
"... everything works according to past cycles ... history repeatsitself in the lives of men, nations and the stock market."


For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attentionto the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollarsand experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice whoenters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether lawyers,doctors, or scientists, devoted years of time to the study andinvestigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attemptingto make any money out of it."Being in the brokerage business myself and handling largeaccounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man forstudying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. Ifound that over ninety per cent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fallin stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural lawwas the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten yearsof my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculativemarkets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation aprofitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled meto accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commoditiesshould rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this lawdetermines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street isaware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is lookingat the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses."It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets, however, the layman may be ableto grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration isthe fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wirelesstelephones and phonographs are based. Without the existence of thislaw the above inventions would have been impossible