Biz Cycle is long in the tooth always yields the same type of Behavioral Finance...or lack of. Every plan looks easy until first contact with the enemy,
Yes. Like Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get hit". The above was his original quote. Heard it was since updated to "Everybody has a plan until they get smashed in the mouth". More dramatic, but same thing.
This is actually a 2 year signal and potentially a precursor to mania. Bull market probably has 2 years to go.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...third-richest-china-province-spooks-creditors china had 18 Billion US Corporate defaults in January alone, now it's been uncovered Local Government Debt isn't 3 Trillion in china, between LGFVs and Local Governments according to there own research, it is between 10-12 Trillion US!!!! Local Governments and LGFVs don't earn shit, Central Bank of china will have to swap bonds and buy out principles... They will print 70 Trillion Yuan over the next 5 years to cover Local Government Debts, it's game overrrrr. china has 3.5 Trillion US External Debt, with 1.2 Trillion US to roll over in 2019, but real Foreign Reserves between 1-1.5 T.... I called it months ago, china Lehman moment, well it's happening How will they pay there debt in US Dollars ? Firms are broke, so the country will use it's Foreign Reserves, but it's so low, anything below 1 T US they collapse, watch them keep selling US treasuries, they need every dollar they can get there hands on. They need 30-50 Billion US a month to defend the RMB from devaluing, problem is there running deficit accounts now... Biggest financial collapse the world will ever see to date is happening right in front of our eyes, to makes matters even worst which I wrote on but nobody cared, in china it's very common practice for private companies to guarantee each other's loans, now default wave has been happening with government printing even faster plugging holes... I wouldn't be surprised if off the books printing included, in January alone they printed over Trillion US. Officially the printed 4 Trillion yuan, off the books is easily 7 Trillion yuan, and then February, March... “The recent slew of bankruptcies sent shock waves through the bond market,” said Chen Su, a bond portfolio manager at Shandong’s Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Co. “For bondholders, they can only expect to get a low repayment ratio through the bankruptcy reorganization -- besides which it’s quite a time-consuming process.” Creditors would prefer direct talks with the company, Chen said. But authorities might have other ideas. Driving their potential concern: the pattern of private-sector companies guaranteeing each others’ debt. The maneuver helped encourage lenders to extend credit, but is now threatening systemic risks as one borrower gets in trouble, infecting others.
did you ever think that these guys starting to trade are actually investing! they are at work while the mkt makes them money. they biught the dip unlike most on here who if they do daytrade want money without risk. even day trading you must take on risk to be successful. everyone searches for the riskless trade. it does not exist. the guy is making more than you so you out him down. lol. ur so smart. he probably has more in the bank than you.