How would you define traders that have been trading for 10, 15, 20+ years and make a living by trading, is it luck ? Like most daytraders it is not surprising that the word consistency is not part of your vocabulary. You know the numbers, over 90% of daytrades lose. If consistency is not part of your plan, Good Luck to you - you are going to need it.
VERY SMART CHOICE ! Unfortunately many daytraders have a very distorted perception of reality. They know they can make a few hundreds in a few minutes, why bother looking for a real job ? You are a very strong person if you were able to stop. Don't get me wrong I am all for trading, certainly not daytrading. Daytraders hate the word consistency to them it does not make any sense, but making a lot of money real fast to lose it all and some later it's ok.
Believe it or not some people change or tweak their system all the times. That does not mean that you don't want to be a systematic trader. A trading strategy based on judgment will never outperform a mechanical approach over the long term because emotions will get you at critical market periods- unlike a mechanical method that has no emotion. It sounds like you have a discretionary approach and you are trying to predict where the market will go next, aren't you ?
I don't know if it's possible to transform a discretionary trader into becoming or believing in a systematic trading approach. Unfortunately, it comes down to a belief that the trader can, at the right time outsmart the market. Sometimes he may be able to, other times he may not. The problem typically arrives when reviewing trades, very few discretionary traders want to see the 'what if' when they were wrong.
=============== 7-plus-yearLights; I am not sure the odds were ever that good for daytrading, trading or investing on any timeframe.LOL Highest probability is not all will believe this also. If ones nickname or personality is like a turtle. Perhaps the multimonth charts in Market Makers Edge book may help. One can still find some'' golden '' trends[2011,2012...;] but frankly i never had the location, location, location or personality for high frequency trading.
We can all pick the top or bottom once in a while, but making a living doing that is a pipedream. I just quoted part of your post because it is the essence of what day traders TRY to do. Who can do that consistently ?
That's why a systematic approach should be more desirable. However, the ego is a very powerful thing and this is probably a bigger reason why more would rather trade discretionary rather than systematic.
What about all the gurus who sell classes and set-ups? Or the sponsors on ET.....are they not the best of the best?? They tell me ANYONE can be a profitable daytrader... for 187 easy payments of $19.99 are you saying they don't live in a 10 million dollar house?? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Now you are talking ! So they want to turn a small/er account into a big one and on top of that they want to predict the next market move up or down, not to mention that the ego always stands in the way. In other words their need to be "right" is often bigger then their need to make money. That's why the failure rate is so high.
It's funny you mention it. ET hates threads like mine because the sponsors hate it. They closed it once already for NO REASONS and I better keep a low volume or they will close it again. It's just business and daytraders make the lion share. Imagine if you are a long term trand follower for instance and place 3-6 trades each year. A LOT of people starting with CNBC might have to look for a real job. What they are selling is HOPE and some make a fortune, certainly not the daytraders. To add insult to injury daytraders love to tell me what a loser I am so ok I'll make an effort to shut up.