Agreed. Dalmation said that it has 'nothing' to do with success. Pretty strong and definitive language there.
Those extremely remote odds of success makes it really stupid to quit your job to pursue trading. Even if you are the 1/100 that make it your "success" can be an illusion. Victor Niederhoffer wrote: "In statistical terms, I figure I have traded about 2 million contracts, with an average profit of $70 per contract (after slippage of perhaps $20). This average is approximately 700 standard deviations away from randomness." The very same year he wrote this HE BLEW UP. He was only supposed to blow up once every 15 billion years according to statistics. LTCM was supposed to only blowup once every 15 billion years. Same with Bear Sterns and Lehman, etc. BTW the universe isn't even 15 billion years old.
emg and hood need to start a support group for each other. What's going on lately w/ the burnouts? I'm not seeing reason(s) for the recent 'trading hurt my feelings and I'm going home' posts here. Just nature taking it's course and weeding out the hobby traders?
I agree when you do discretionary daytrading it's dead-end, you have no skills. When you do automated which has higher chance of success, if your edges run out your programming skills are worth something. Daytrading is like poker true and tested dead-end "jobs". Most guys who play poker still have their daytime job, cause they are realistic. So should most daytraders.
This is what Bella of SMB Capital wrote about day trading as a dead end job: <blockquote>In your life you get very few opportunities to do something great. This is one such opportunity. Most in the world are in dead end jobs. This is never one of those jobs. In One Good Trade (Wiley Trading) I created a fictional character in Why Traders Fail who enters the game of trading for the coolness of it all. This character daydreams telling a young lady what he does and her disinterest instantly turning to total interest. Let me be clear, this is exactly what will happen. Other than playing CF for the New York Yankees or being a rock star nothing is cooler than being a professional trader. You will learn more about yourself in a year of trading than working for twenty years at never-challenge-me corporation. Learning to successfully navigate the markets is the Mount Everett of your professional life.</quote>
Tons of burnouts lately.....probably means the VIX is about to explode and volatility will increase. I'm going out on a limb and guessing the burnouts have trouble with slower mkts and when they all capitulate, it's time for the great ranges to re-emerge
When the efforts seem to undermine the return, it attracts anyone. Seemingly 50:50 odds to begin with strengthen your dellusion that a little needs to be done in order to succeed. Can gambling with better odds than 50:50 be easy...sure! Day Trading can be addictive yes, but its not purely gambling. IF it is than in the spirit..Long term or position trading is as well. Simple Laws of nature...any thing useless ceases to exist. IF trading has survived, it holds real potential. IF individuls fail, they do because they just do. Trading needs to be understood at its core. what is that one does to make a successful trade. money just follows suit.
Trading is the most competitive business out there when you consider the absolute size of the financial markets and all the money that is moving around and the number of market participants. With trading the markets you don't have the security of localization that you would have had you started a small business. Competition in the markets come from far and wide and their capitalization can be infinitely higher than yours. In daytrading I find this to be especially true. But the upside to the absolute size of the market is one only needs to be a niche player to make a comfortable, if not substantially comfortable living. Finding a niche, developing an edge in said niche market, and then just making sure you can maintain yourself in your niche. Beyond the broad trading advice that can transcend many trading styles, like cutting losers short, a trader needs to find out what niche works for him or her. Personally, I could never daytrade. I find that market place entirely too competitive. Trying to be a master of the universe gets harder with every passing minute (proficient in multiple markets). I rather just be living the simple life than be master of the universe.
What is the edge of the average day trader?. Negative expectancy based on statistics and probabilities and countless studies.