Hi Bill, You didn't answer my questions... Do you have a trading plan (entry signal, exit signal, profit target, contingency plan et cetera) that's written??? If so, what is it??? What prevents you from starting a journal, posting charts to seek help especially if you can get help from traders with a similar trading style as yours??? You should also be posting a message in ET hook thread to find a profitable trader that lives in your city or nearby city that will be willing to let you watch him/her trade in person so that you can see how you differ in your approach to the markets and I'm not talking about comparing entry signals. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=28 With that said, you should stop trading (do not take another trade) until you get help and you don't need to cough up any dough for such... Just your time and energy to have someone look closely at what your doing or you look closely at what he/she is doing. Mark
Thanks for you kind words djxput FutureScalper I am trading 2 lots have been as much as 4lots. I read you last post and you had some god points thanks. NihabaAshi I have made some changes over the weakened, part of the plan is to trade 2 lots on ES. Still working on STOPS, Do I base them on ATR over the last few bars, or a basic 2 point stop, but then I would need a 4 point target to have a 1 to 2 ratio, If I use a target of 2 points and a stop at 2 points with trading cost its just a 50/50 chance? Maybe the better answer is to use a 1 point stop and a 3 point target, but a 1 point stops would hit a lot. The other plan is to trade 2 lots sell half at 1.5 points then let the other half run with a trailing stop or maybe a target of 3 points. Until I play with some back tests for what they are worth, I will base a stop on ATR on a 5 min chart mostly stops on a 5min are around 1.5 to 2 points. I would use a target 1.5 points on the first part of my position the second target at 3 points and move my stop to break-even after 1.5 is hit, based on 2 lots, or would the better option be to scale in like FutureScalper has mentioned on 4 ticks that would be 1 ES point for me. Thanks for you support guys I appreciate you feed back, it's helping me. Bill
look, no offense, but... just based on the questions you are asking, you have no reason to be trading futures except in a desire to give other people your money. you should have the answers to these questions BEFORE you start trading. a business plan as well, etc. really. i'm trying not to be too harsh here, but how can you possibly think it's so easy that you cannot even understand these basics, and you will still be profitable? it's mind boggling to me.
Bill, You are still at the beginning of ths trading journey and statistically you won't make it to the point of profitability, but if you are really serious about making changes then please consider just one thing.... Stop trading futures! There are a few ET guys that trade futures profitably, compared to dozens of stock traders. It's the toughest game out there. At this point you probably think that you already have some experience and don't want to throw it away, but whatever you have learned will also apply to stocks...and stocks are a heck of a lot easier. Don Bright takes a lot of shit on ET, but imo he's worthy of respect for his longevity and the knowledge you can gain by overseeing thousands of traders over the years. He will even tell you DON'T TRADE FUTURES. They are only there for the best traders. Either way, good luck and have an exit plan in place if this doesn't work out. Too many people let trading ruin them.
Works for me. Maybe you need a new method? I will also agree that just trading futures instead of stock/options is a last desparate attemp to stay in the game.
Dunstin do you trade options and what kind of stocks do you trade? the ones I have looked at ES looks smother. dinoman What works for you? Bill
The ES is "smoother" and more efficient than most stocks which is a bad thing. You want inefficiencies and volatility...that's where the easier money lies. I trade news stocks...whatever is moving.
In addition to considerations as to whether you actually have an edge, Consider the following: Daytrading is not the place to start. You have to know how markets work as you woin't have time to analyse realtime. Day trading is about conditioned reflexes. By the time you have analysed you have missed the trade/exit as it has been bid away from you by those who act without thinking. Think of those studies on pro gamers where it has been demonstrated that the route is from eye to reticular activating system with no cerebral processing. Try trading stocks on a daily timeframe. There is a helluva difference between a trade that's there for two seconds and a trade that's there for two days. If you day trade future and then try/go back to stocks it is like going from flying an F-18 hornet low level where one mistake is your last, to flying a cargo plane withy the experience you gained flying hornets. Consider this, what age does the Air Force retire/ground people from fast jets mid 30's? and fro flying altogether - 40's? Think about concentration ability. It seems that people who have daytraded successfully for a period of monts or 1-2 years often lose the ability. Usually this is ascribed to not changing with the market and I am sure this is often the case, but you might want to consider another reason may be that if you are Attention Deficit Disorder type you can only concentrate to the degree necessay when it is still a learning curve and the learning element allows you to hyperfocus. Once the interest wanes so does the ability to watch every print, which for some styles at least is necessary as its not just wher eit has gone it is how it got there.
"The ES is "smoother" and more efficient than most stocks which is a bad thing." um, no what it means is that you have to have a methodology that fits the instrument. the recent market (i don't trade ES, i trade YM but they are highly correlated) is quite trendy and less prone to means reversion but over the last couple of years, it has been a means reversion trader's dream there are many ways to skin the market cat, but you must have a methodology that fits the instrument you are trading. if you want a trendy futures, for example, corn is quite nice i agree that this person has no business trading futures, though.
What's smoother between these...I would rather trade the blue line any day! http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=DRYS&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=SPY&a=v&p=s