Day Trading don't work

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by Lonely trader, Aug 21, 2007.

  1. this is what happens when account b has to exit out if not enough participants in account a, c, and d1-dn aren't enticed using greed.

    see how price rises as the concentrated position is taken, and as profit is tried to be realized, not enough participants are there.
     
    #31     Aug 21, 2007
  2. you need to find a market(s) where you have an edge

    all these people saying "follow the trend"...

    i generally don't

    most of my trades are mean reversion, which STATISTICALLY speaking has been MUCH more profitable over the last few years

    almost the exact opposite of "trend following"

    that's why i choose (for intraday) to trade index futures. on stocks (for me) i have little if any intraday edge, so i don't usually trade them intraday. i have found edges with stocks from swingtrading and longterm investing

    you must ask yourself ... WHAT IS MY EDGE?

    and if you can't clearly and succinctly identify what your edge is... face it... you don't have one.
     
    #32     Aug 21, 2007
  3. mde2004

    mde2004

    If you really think you will continue to blow out then you should trade backwards. Trade to lose all your money and try to take your account to zero.

    It won't happen, I've tried. It actually helps you understand why trading is mostly psychological and nothing else.

    Trade with caution.
     
    #33     Aug 21, 2007
  4. Sounds like you should not be trading a live account. You said that your results look good in the back-testing phase then when you go live, it does not go as planned. This probably means that you are not testing your system properly, over optimizing or not testing for long enough in real-time (on a sim account ofcourse). It is good that you are following your rules though since that puts you a step above a most.

    If you want to stick to this business, I would say get a regular job and do this on the side on a sim account. Treat your sim account like it is a real account. Do not take stupid trades and/or risks on it or else the whole process will be useless. Once you can be net profitable for 6 weeks straight, give it another shot on a small scale.

    If you do take a loss on your sim account, accept that you took a loss. Don't tell your self "Well on a real account I wouldn't have done that" since in reality, in real-life you would have probably done much worse. Brutal honesty is the name of the game.

    Also, set a loss limit for your system. There are several ways to determine how much draw-down one should tolerate before deeming a system unfit to trade (standard deviations, financial limits, etc). I find that taking the largest consecutive losing streak increased by 20 - 25% is a fairly simple, straight-forward way of doing it. Not necessarily the best but it gets the job done. If this number yields a draw down % you are comfortable with, then go for it after the 6 week trial period.

    Check out some books on statistics as well to get a better idea of how to measure the efficacy of a system and analyzing its results.

    Also, while you are going through this development and testing phase, consider leaving your account in a CD so you collect some interest. If you can get an extra 5.5%, thats around 5.5% less you'll have to make/cover in losses.

    Don't do this thinking, "I have to make $500 today, I have to, I have to!". If you do, you will more then likely lose $500. Trade to trade well and let the profits flow in the process.

    BTW, given your account size and the amount of loss you took in one day, sounds like your system is not fit to trade. That or your risk exposure is too high. Risking less then 2% per trade would be good while less then 1% would be ideal. It seems overly conservative but I wouldn't have it any other day. It might make the winning days a less profitable but it keeps the losing days significantly less hurtful as well.
     
    #34     Aug 21, 2007
  5. Until you learn how the crooks manipulate the market, you will lose. It takes years. I know all the stupid ways they screw the little guy. You also have to have the guts to go against human nature...i.e. buying when others are dumping in a panic and selling when others are greedy and being hogs. If you know how to read a balance sheet, you can find stocks that should limit your downside if your entry is correct.


     
    #35     Aug 21, 2007
  6. heres a pic to illustrate why volatility is important.
     
    #36     Aug 21, 2007
  7. And one more thing - i'd stay the hell away from the er2 and stick to the es. ER2 tends to swing $30 while ES just stays at the same price. Psychologically speaking, I find the ES to be much easier to trade.
     
    #37     Aug 22, 2007
  8. you should write Day Trading don't work for me
     
    #38     Aug 22, 2007
  9. FAST.AM

    FAST.AM

    Trading is very difficult when your psychology is challenged.
    The key to making money is not books, not the media for sure its really in your mind.
    The daily market is comprised of daily patters, the faster you can figure this out the better.
    The most important thing is to save your capital. Why don't you place some longer trades to start ? Their are some real bargain's out there right now.
    Its very diffult to trade when you money is depleted. Pick 3 companies buy, and hold for a week or until you have a profit. "Good company" Cisco, HPQ etc . they always bounce.
    Steve
     
    #39     Aug 22, 2007
  10. Do not forget Enron and Worldcom. Always bounce??? :) Lookat TASR, MAGS, IPIX. Look at NASDAQ bubble, any stock. Your advice is the way to financial death - buy&pray
     
    #40     Aug 22, 2007