My point with the prior message...to do "trend trading"...one should be ignoring trade signals on low volatility range days stuck within the range of volatility spikes of the prior trading day. Thus, trend trading is what occurred after late Thurs May 26th to current. In fact, if someone called themselves a trend trader and did not get trade signals from late Thurs May 26th to current...there's something wrong with their "trend method" or they do not understand what is a trend nor how they "tend" to start. However, this is more method discussion and that gets too far away from my interest in this thread or any other thread that's about "trader psychology" in ET psychology section. Therefore, this is my last post in this thread because it's developed into method discussions. Good luck all. Mark
He has two problems as you rightfully observed. A psychological problem of overtrading and greed and putting on excessive risk. And more importantly, a second problem of not understanding what trend trading means and specifically what defines a trend. He is just randomly trading and encountering all sorts of problems in his quest for automated trading. But till now he is stubbornly still trying to make it work. Your last two posts about reading trends in market context is unfortunately alien to him. Look at the charts he posted, he traded almost every candlestick as long as it moves up or down and he considers that trend trading. I'm sad because of his time wasted not knowing basic technical analysis, and arguing on a trading psychology thread. Whatever suggestions you gave is lost because it's wrong medicine for the underlying illness ...... a flawed understanding of trends and trend trading.
This is a day trading thread .The conclusion I come to is using trend trading for day trading may not work.The method used (trend trading ) may be the cause of the problem along with discipline and other problems. Even the turtles site has an article Why Does Trend Following Not Work for Day Trading or Short-Term Trading http://www.turtletrader.com/why-no-short-term.html In a 24 hour market , the trends may happen in the sessions which the day trader does not trade.It is no good for a day trader to have trends he can not trade. Secondly if the intra day action is random , and trends appear where none exist, there may be no success. Trends are subjective as the video below shows , market trends only 20 % of the time.Maybe 80 % of these intra day trends may fail. http://topdogtrading.com/5_day_mini.../5_Day_Free_MiniCourse_w_transitions_2nd.html If market context was applied correctly, and trends on intra day charts were traded in line with the longer time frame trends and support and resistance , there is no guarantee of day trading success if profitable trends are rare during the day, and most of the day time trends may fail. I don't think I have not learned from Mark's contribution , infact it has helped me learn a bit more about trend trading in market context.
I copied an article from Martin Cole from another forex forum, which says the same things: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=221683 He also suggested certain amount of manipulations exist in forex markets: The market makers do indeed trap traders, ...... To trap a trader all that is required is to generate a belief in the trader, or in the case of the markets, the masses of traders' MINDS. This is and can be accomplished in many ways but drawing patterns of double-top or double-bottom is not one of them. If you are interested in some immediate tips I would urge you to remove all moving averages and standard indicators from your charts. The longer you allow your mind to focus on these tools that are supplied, used and abused by the market makers the longer you will endure internal conflict with your trading. I would also urge you to dump every candle chart on your system and start to use a point in figure chart only. This will at least get you away from pattern reading. Your next stage is then to look at your screen and always be asking the question "if I was a market-maker how will I be making money today" you must train your brain to look at the CONTENT of the market and never the FORM that is presented via charts. There, you have information that probably took me two years to arrive at. Your challenge now will be to go cold turkey from every chart indicator you have been looking at for all these years. The addiction will be strong, so strong in fact that many can never completely delete their old charts.
oil,not trading is a big part of trading,learning to not get in bad trades is learning when not to trade,the longer you are at it,the more setups you will see,that will take time,if you only see a few setups,then those are the only times you should trade..trading with out a setup is a newbie fools game,everyone has to learn that lesson the hard way,just don't let it take too long to cop on
Thank You. Your few words say a lot , they make sense. The big problem with day trading per is the constant change of mindset , when looking at 1 and 5 minute charts and seeing so many set ups ....many of them are random , therefore by trading less and with higher time frames context, one can look for set ups with an edge.This will also help the mindset to be firm and focussed . My problem has been the bad trades and counter trend trades during the intra day volatility.
Listen to this 2hrs free webinar. It might help you to filter out bad trades. There is no way to "see so many setups ..... many of them are random" if you refined your method to just take the few that presents. If you are seeing random setups, you don't yet have a method to talk about. http://www.compassfx.com/kevin/replay/saturday.html
A video that I found useful in helping with trading difficulties, not necessarily to justify your insistence that daytrading don't work for you and hence won't work for everybody else. If your problem is "trading" itself, then listen to this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM&list=FLv8kAMSj7njj14yvMwZY5WQ&index=3&feature=plpp_video
day trading is hard. that is true. since trades are entered most technically, not a sound fendematal reason. I found technical trading is just for computers, very suitable. for human being, hard to flip over mind several times. I admit that is true. if you trade using a stop loss, that is a disater. day trading is just like ride roll casters, no one can do roll casters so frequently and so violently. but machine has no problem at all. what I learned is: do not pay too much attention to technicals, put more on fundementals. often I was back to my old age trading style, hold on tight. most day traders pay too much attention technically. they are systematic but that is a disaster. you ask for troubles. your underlying reasons: try use technicalls to predict or ask market to run in the your majesty imagined or well thought technical ways. that is riduculous. we all know market is out of our control. so market has no reason to act or run in your systematic way. market will run in whatever ways it wants to do. it does care which way is a must. I normally use EMA cross to make trade, late I found sometimes it works sometimes it does not. sometime perfectly. but I realized i made a mistake: I am asking the market to run in the way when it hit cross. how stupid I am, can I ask the market to do things in my way? NO WAY. sure losing and losing.... so do not trade blindly technically, that is why computers never replece human traders. you need a brain, get an idea. then observe the market, do it methodically (or technically when the right moment comes), act decisively. for example, if you find hype rally, just to short it. great idea, the rally party always will be over no matter what, that is a fact. wait, wait,...til it drops, do not act. wait again, rally, ok, we a bottom, make a mark, it passed old high and continue higher, wait, ....then suddenly start to drop, even under old high, sell! bull party is over but day trading is just one day things, the so called trend is often noises, those ups/downs are just whipsaws, no reason to pay attention. think intelligently execute it tecnically/methodically act decisively
many perhaps have already heard or read about a trading mid size giant called PFG.... it is fallen to the ground on frauds like so many others.... just when i wanted to withdraw my funds today, i happened to saw an email from someone i knew from way back in 1968, larry williams.... his email shocked me and sent tremble thru my spine.... gone is my trading funds....