Double bottoms? triple bottoms/ tops? etc. Why do you think such patterns are of value? Of course the ones that work stand out clearly on the charts, but look closely. How many failed ones got covered up? Say you have a "double top". How do you determine if it is hitting against a resistance that will hold or just allowing stops to built up about it that will launch price up to the next consolidation? Just askin.
no problem, there are many other ways to trade of course. that was just example. (the pattern is just one part of it, i also look for divergence, time of day, higher timeframe trends, and what other cross pairs are doing. that's why i suggested taking pictures so that every nuances in your arsenal can be reviewed)
Draw some trend lines on 1 minute charts (don't trade on one minute) , if a down trend is over the price will cross over the ENTIRE down trend line.This is often a confirmation of the exhaustion of sellers and end of down trend, confirmed with double bottom , a time based confirmation by waiting for three higher lows on 15 min. This works in confluence probably > than 50 % of the time.There are various other confirmations of a bottom , like uptrend on long time frame charts like 4h or the inability of sellers to push prices lower.
I agree. I do not trade any pattern on its own merit. I am always looking for at least 2 reasons to enter a trade. By the way I do not consider any indicator as a supporting reason.
That chart says it all. We are on the same page. I also would not take any long trades until that first tl was broken. Just seems that they are not high probability for me. Thanks for posting the chart.
One of my problems is patience , sitting in front of a screen all day and doing nothing, must get action = action junkie.The market plays with my emotions on days when it reverses without any confirmation signals. Position trading would help because I can just place limit orders at the bottom of trend lines with a wide stop , and if the stop is hit the opportunity becomes much cheaper and more attractive to enter, again with a larger position and stop. It may solve the patience problem created by day trading. TAKE A LOOK AT THE BOTTOM OF 4 HOUR TRENDLINE GOING UP.
Why aren't they high probability? My main problem is the market coming off , whilst in a position and my response there after.
you have a few setups there, so only make a few trades,the good setups pay for all the patience, impatience gives it all back
It seems to me that when a new trend starts and gives you a couple of pivot points to draw a new trendline, say a new downtrend as on your first chart. When you go to a larger perspective chart, up the next fractal, that line often holds as a trendline on that chart. If that is the case then any long trades would have to me the expectation of running back to that tl. Many fake flips occur and minor trendline breaks occur which suddenly end around that first drawn trendline. That said, I do find it hard to resist a reversal play after a strong volume sell off, a minor trendline break and a s/r flip. Never know when a new trend is starting. FWIW.