The games market makers play on INSIDE DAYS. Explanation on chart. Long 106.82. Out 107.34. +52 NOTE: Explanation on chart is in response to various questions. Following is further explanation as chart did not have enough space. 1) I do not draw trend lines, triangles etc. on time frame less than an hour. I do not day trade based of micro trend lines etc. I like yearly, weekly , monthly trend lines etc.. better but i am not particularly good at it. In the process of learning and refining. 2) I spend 80% of my time in trying to get CONTEXT/Market structure right. I have not found one single source to get it. I rely on ACD method and all it's layers along with Market Profile to get CONTEXT. I listen to any webinar by any presenter who talks about market Profile. Mirus futures.com has lots of them for free along with Jim Dalton web site. 3) Reason for posting and sharing journal is to help my self. I do not want to look at screen and prices jumping all day long. I did for 2 years and went no where. I do not skype and rarely talk with any one during trading hours. I tried but did not find it helpful for all parties involved. Taking a break and writing down my thoughts on a trade is the best way, I have found to improve. I tried to write down my notes at the end of trading day but i am not cut out for it. If i do not do it during slow trading hours, I do not follow up.
Inside Day? Yesterday's high was taken out just after 6:00 a.m. (EST) and again around 8:10 a.m. (EST). I was hoping ACD System would add to my arsenal for price action trading but it's just way too subjective. Fade A-Level one day, C-Level the next, take break-outs the next, next trade OR . . . Anyway, thanks to you, MFB, for the thread. I'm sticking to price action and volume.
ANATOMY of 146 ticks between 12.20 -1.38 pm. Combining market profile and ACD. We have a confirmed A up but i am not taking breakout with ABCD number of -3 and 30 day Cumulative number line of 2. Pullbacks suit 45 minutes OR any way. After A up was confirmed , long was 107.80 and out 108.36. I have more confidence when OR high and CHVN line up. I am short now from 108.40. with stop loss at 108.52. 108.52 gets taken out , 109.10 gets exposed as target. That's why tight stop. I think i can afford to risk 12 ticks stop loss (lol). NOTE: Please don't ask me to explain ACD number line etc. if one has not read the book. If after reading the book, one still have questions, PM me.
Oil pit close. I am glad for traders who are long from 107 from yesterday. I will take my 30-50 ticks per setup all day long. It is very HELPFUL to go over Support/Resistance levels at the end of the day and see why VOLUME showed up at certain levels.
As day traders we have to be right with our bias, direction , time of the trade and stop loss. A pretty tall order. Here is analysis of different time segments of 03-01-2012 trading day. Every day mostly between 12-1 pm eastern time, CL forms a trading box. A trading box is very predictable and offers good risk/reward set ups. On 02-29-2012 , after the sell off, price settled down and trading box was 107.20-106.50- box was broken to the upside by taking out 107.20 and hitting of 108.10. Today on 03-01-2012, trading box was 107.80-108.50. Box was broken to the upside and CL hit high of 108.94 into Oil pit close and later 110.55 into Globex session before pulling back into 108.80 into cash close. I like to go over charts and see which levels were broken with FORCE. On my charts, cyan bar signify VOLUME. Nothing special, just a regular candle sticks chart. CORRECTION: chart should say waiting for 107.80 to be taken out with VOLUME and confirm A up ( instead of 108.80)
globex trade. short 108.36. cover 108.09. US $ up and trading box 107.80-108.50. +27 Ideal target is 107.80 but the question always is how long one want to hold for extra 20 ticks. Plus, i want to see if i want to try long around 107.80 area. Long now 107.73. NOTE: I posted my P&L screenshot of this trade because lot of traders ( based of questions i get) are having a rough time to understand/follow box trading. It's an effort to show that box trading works with a very defined risk/reward set up. Again, CONTEXT is important. When day trading , i am not making bearish/bullish bet on CL. I just bet on normal ebb and flow of price movement.
Daily pivot, pivot range at resistance set up. short 108.54. Cover 108.12. +42 OR is 108.55-108.02. Amazing , how this OR defines as to what lot of traders who use this method are thinking.
Hi, What do you use as your OR, time frame, I am using from 9 AM to 9:15? Another comment, I do not know if you see it but we currently struggling to pas the lower part of the pivot range at 107.80, Also a little lower is where most of the Volume occurred yesterday around 107.60, on OR we already establish a A down, but way is acting I am expecting a bounce back for a C up. What you think?