Day Trading Crude without indicators.

Discussion in 'Journals' started by mfbreakout, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. Final chart showing how price moved up.

    NOTE: I got some questions traders looking at every level to the tick. All, I can say it is not HELPFUL. When one counts pennies, he gets pennies. One has to adjust stop loss on days when intra day move is $3 in one direction.
     
    #361     Feb 19, 2012
  2. 02-7-2012 3.5 hours of price action from 11 am till 2.30 pm.

    CORRECTION: chart should read " After hitting high"
     
    #362     Feb 19, 2012
  3. 02-07-2012 Market profile. Previous resistance of 98.40 became support for 3.5 hours . Re post of chart showing potential ticks in the box.

    Looks too GOOD to be TRUE even after seeing this over and over again over a year.

    That's why we do not go looking for trades but we try to recognize them when they appear.
     
    #363     Feb 19, 2012
  4. Market profile. Previous resistance of 98.40 became support for 3.5 hours.

    NOTE: Some days these levels do not come into play at all. Best risk/reward set ups appear when these levels are taken out with VOLUME, otherwise trade small or sit on hands.

    VOLUME means BIG MONEY is in the market and they are not interested in 40 ticks moves in one direction. When VOLUME is there, one should expect $ 2 and up move in one direction.
     
    #364     Feb 19, 2012
  5. Combining trend lines, channel breakout with ACD Opening Range (OR) along with Market Profile concepts gives more confidence.

    NOTE: No discussion please whether CL is manipulated, will it crash? political impact etc.. We trade patterns, price action and that's all i want to FOCUS on.

    Not much trading today for me. A good day to look over charts, notes and PLAN ahead.
     
    #365     Feb 20, 2012
  6. Monthly chart and trend.
     
    #366     Feb 20, 2012
  7. daily chart. Time to pause or momentum is too STRONG ? I keep on thinking about -30 days number line.

    30 days number line points to pullback. However, what did not happened is more important than what did happen per expectations.

    There is a MAJOR problem with the bull scenario in WTI Crude Oil — the open interest story. There is currently a near record open interest of 1.29 million contracts.



    The composition of this open interest represents a near all-time record short position by commercials and long position by the large speculator (including the funds).

    Typically it does not pay to bet against the commercial interest in the futures market, especially when the commercial interest is so heavily slanted in one direction — but there are rare exceptions. So, while further gains in price are possible — even to the extent of the targets identified in this document — one must question where the additional buying will come from given the extended committment of the speculator at present. A close below last week’s low in Crude Oil could lead to cascading stops.
     
    #367     Feb 20, 2012
  8. DX and CL relationship. Just one of the variables among many.

    I would like CL to be around $115 while DX is around 75 to short CL.
    There are several other combinations of DX and CL in between.
     
    #368     Feb 20, 2012
  9. I do not trade Globex session as it is tough to read volume. I was going over some charts. CL came down to potential support , so decided to test it.


    02-20-2012 Asian session long off 104.90 support. target 105.50 area
     
    #369     Feb 20, 2012
  10. 02-21-2012. 6.24 am. long 104.90. stopped out 104.79. -11.
     
    #370     Feb 21, 2012