I trade options, generally the SPY. I've been doing this about 3 years now....starting to have more consistent success, as I had a motorcycle accident early Oct, and have spent the last 2 months at home recovering. This has allowed me to gather more experience. I'll be returning to work in January, so this chapter of trading will come to a close. On futures, do the markets stay open past the equities market? E.g., currency futures?
I have a question about today's SPY with respect to trading via Jirvat's approach. I've attached a drawing so it's more clear. My questions: - with respect to Buy Long 2: Which is the sell point? I've identified two, but I'm not clear which would be the correct sell point (keeping in mind I wouldn't know the future). - with respect to Buy Long 4: Is this the correct point? - Does it appear that I'm assigning the buy and sell points correctly? Thanks!
JavaBen - with respect to Buy Long 2: Which is the sell point? I've identified two, but I'm not clear which would be the correct sell point (keeping in mind I wouldn't know the future). Itâs not a long in my book LL and LH - with respect to Buy Long 4: Is this the correct point? I donât see an entry there. Although the previous waves were HH and HL you are taking an entry at the end of that massive wave up. So in the worst case scenario that was a very but very late entry and a few ticks before a massive resistance R2 !!! - Does it appear that I'm assigning the buy and sell points correctly? No. Only your sell longs 1 and 3 look good for me I know is easier to call an ex post chart but I would recommend you to divide the process in 2 parts: macro analysis and triggers. Because you have the advantage of trading slower timeframes and time charts you have the luxury of time (it sound stupid and repetitive but is key). Donât get lost in translation, spend 95% of your screen time (you have plenty with 5 min chart) analyzing if waves made HH/LL, look at the distance to the next pivots or major r/s lines if you want etc. When you define that you have a valid potential area for a trade, start looking for at least a quantifiable pullback (for example look at the second chart I used a 21 HMA as a visual aid, a pullback that at least break the hull or even better that change its slope) and only then use the rest of your screen time for triggers, either using price alone or indicators. If you canât easily recognize macro direction you are doom, so no matter what you do or what you use for triggers, you will have more probabilities of losing money. Donât worry, if you have to use indicators to give you visual aids for macro analysis, use them but donât get stuck in the technicalities. As an example on this, look at the 2nd chart, itâs exactly the same 5 min chart but with a few visual aids for smoothing the macro analysis (the different bars width is beacuse there are candle Price Volume Bars) I hope it helps jjrvat
Hi, can anyone please help me. I would like to trade this method on CFDs on SP500 and NQ but the problem is I only have time charts(no tick and volume based charts) and I dont have HULL MA. I have weightet MA, simple, exponential, kaufmann moving average. Which charts should I use, probably 1 minute for scalping and what MA settings. I have 240 wma for macro(which is a bit slow from time to time, maybe I should try 120) and now I am using WMA6 for waves. thanks for help Tomaz
You have to find your own setup! Jirvat presented a great system but you have to find your own parameters to adapt this system to your own trading style. One chart that is right for one trader is too fast for another trader... Concerning the MA's you should read the thread again... Jirvat stated clearly that they are simply a visual aid and not mandatory at all... Play around with different charts and parameters till you can see the waves clearly! Screentime is necessary, no shortcut...
I have just spent the past week reading this thread. To jjrvat: Thank you for starting it and all of you hard work. Offering free advice is a very admiral quality. To TheRumpledOne: Do not stop contributing to this thread. I found your posts most rewarding when I went back and fully looked at what you were saying and trying to show in your charts. While your charts are intimidating at times the majority of them were very relevant to the discussion at hand. Do not let anyone tell u different. I wish that I had your programing skills! jjrvat I have a few questions. It seem that with your method you are basically putting your self within the indicator. You have your 240 WMA and your 25 Hull or 21-25WMA plotted on your Bar chart. You adjust your time fames to give you the appropriate wave patterns for your style. Then you trade on your HH HL or your LL LH. You use the Pivot Point to decide when to trade and not to trade. You use the slower WMA to decide the Macro direction and the fast WMA or Hull to help in the id of the wave. When you get a HH HL after two? patterns you enter long on the fist break of the faster WMA. when you get a LH LL you enter short on the first break of the WMA. Is this correct. (Obviously following the Macro direction). You also color code your slower WMA to help in the direction of your trade. Is this basically a true assessment? Or have I missed everything? Questions: What happens when you get a low or a high at the exact same price point as a prior high or low? Wait and see or exit? How many HH HL or LH LL do you require prior to a trade 1, 2, 3 and when would you not trade in the pattern any more? after the 4th wave pattern? Your exit is decided how? Immediate change in slope? When you refer to change in slope are you speaking about a 15,45,90, 120 degree change in slope.? Just a thought: isn't this very similar to the Elliot wave patterns. Are they relevant here? You have talked about your pivot points. And gave a great explanation on how you arrived at your PP. Of course leaving out the most important trick for us to find Your last post was the most informative for me . Thank you for posting an example with notes, it helps. Can you post some more with the ES in mind? Your stops are decided by the previous low just prior to your entry is this correct? How do you manage this in real time with only seconds to enter a trade? You have also mentioned that you trade certain time periods for certain markets. I have also noticed that there are better trading time periods for the ES. Prior to open seems to be very good for patterns. 3-4 am EST 7-9:30am and sometime around 11pm EST. I also have noticed that the 34 tick and the 89 tick charts seem to be the best. Do you use two charts to trade? One higher time or tick to decide larger wave pattern and a lower time-tick chart to decide the entry and exits? Or do you just trade off of 1 chart? I have noticed when I do this my 240WMA is different on the charts. Some times on the 34 tick it is showing above when on the 89 tick it is showing below. Is this normal or am I doing something wrong?I also noticed that you had one post about not including after hour data in your charts. Do you hold this true for trading the ES and YM? Thank you again for a very informative thread.
jjrvat: Two questions about your most recent charts: 1. On the first chart where you have labeled "valid short LH and LL," it seems that you went short at the beginning of the next candle. How did you know that would be a down candle and not another green candle? 2. Why did you use Heikin Ashi candles on the second chart but not on the first? Thanks!
IF, Are you serious ??? 1 . ... On the first chart ....How did you know that would be a down candle and not another green candle? C'mon this is even a more basic analysis, the color of a candlestick bar in a indicator free chart is not random !!!. Look at high/low/open/close in comparison with the previous bar ... 2. Why did you use Heikin Ashi candles on the second chart but not on the first? That setup was used for the sake of the example to visualize the same chart in what I though was a cleaner visual perspective. This can be a H/A candles, Line on close, Renko, a simple MA coloring bar chart or whatever the point is the same. I have posted dozens of setups with and without indicators, and I think you are missing the point. IMHO, you are trying to find answers for your lack of perspective and you wont find them jumping around from one setup to another. If you want to move on you need to forget about the technicalities of trading and start expending more time analyzing price (macro direction, waves and the very basic H/L/C/O in the last 2 bars at least) rather than on indicators jjrvat PS: Gulicio I'll try to post some ES charts later
Ok let me rephase. What part of price action let you know in real time that that was a good place to short? How did you know that, based on the previous candle/price action, the trend was done retracing and was preparing to continue downward? Did you enter (on the marked candle) when price penetrated the previous swing low? Was that confirmation that price would most likely continue downward? Thanks. The only "indicators" I've used for the last few months have been two MAs (240WMA and 21HMA), but recently I've dropped those, too, so the only thing I'm looking at is price and volume.