You mentioned DOM. I have created what I call my ABOVE/BELOW indicator. It shows how many bars, out of the last X bars, closed above / below the current price. I also have one for range that tells me how many bars, out of the last X bars, had ranges that are larger/smaller than the current range and larger/smaller than the average range. Gives you an idea of support/resistance IN REAL TIME!! PLEASE NOTE: I don't check for forum messages daily... I see some of you have been PMing me. Feel free to use my email address: therumpledone at gmail dot com or look for therumpledone on just about any messenger, if you want to chat.
Hi Everyone, hope you're enjoying the summer. Today's morning NQ chart and trades. My plan goes something like this: Going (usually) with the slope of the 100 WMA; trade long at a 3 bar reversal after a higher high, trade short at a 3 bar reversal after a lower high. However, always taking precedence is support or resistance at a major level. Levels can be defined as places where price has stopped in a previous time period. What was yesterday's high? Price stopped there. Where was yesterday's low, price stopped there. Where was today's open? Price started from that point and went somewhere. Where is the high of the last week, month, year? Price stopped there and the same is true of the lows. It has been my experience that price also respects the 200 simple moving average in most time frames. What do you find of value? Comments more than welcome. Let's keep up this great thread! Shel
Hi all, I had my first losing day this month and thought I'll post my trades to show what happens when you're not following your plan and let fear and greed lead you instead. This is a 0.1 Range bar chart for the spy, I use it only for price analysis and not for entries. Anyways, 1st and 2nd arrows: trades that were perfect setup but unfortunatly my stop orders were not filled so I didn't take those trades. LESSON: when you see a good momentum in price somtimes getting in a bit earlier might be better. 3rd arrow: Perfect setup, and took the trade, entry at 136.06 exit at 136.17, +11C. 4th arrow: Had a perfect setup at 136.10 but was afraid to take the trade since I thought the price moved down too much and the trend was broken. Seeing that the price goes in my direction I've entred later at the retracement at 136.26, NOT ACCORDING TO MY PLAN!!, seeing the that price don't move in my direction I got out at 136.24, -2C. LESSON: don't be afraid to enter if PA is good + NEVER EVER try to compensate a missed trade with late entry not according to your plan! 5th arrow: Entered long by mistake as I put a limit order instead of a stop limit and got filled, moreover for some reason I waited for my stop to get hit. Entry at 136.24 exit 136.08, -16C. LESSON: if you enter by mistake exit immdiately!. 6th arrow: thinking that price goes down I've entred a short at 136.06 NOT ACCODING TO SLOW WMA, my stop was at 136.21 but I only got filled at 136.27 as price jumped almost 30 cents in 10 seconds. -21C. LESSON: Don't enter against macro direction espcially when the momentum goes against you! Reaching my daily max loss (2% of the account) I've decided to stop for the day. As you can see, mistakes and only mistakes turned a potential 4 winning trades into 3 losing trades and only one winning trade. Total for the day (w/ commission): -37C. Well, I've learned my lesson hope you'll be smart enough to not repeat the same mistakes I did.
Hi Amitman, If you trade directly off S/R you can enter at much better prices and you know well in advance where your potential entries should be. I marked your chart with 1,2,3,4,5,6 (see attached). They mark pivot points at the 135.95 price area. At 1 and 2 135.95 acted as resistance and 3-6 it acted as support. Since you are only trading long, you could have gone long at 3,4,5 & 6 and got at least a 10 cent scalp on each. There are other S/R long trades on the chart, for example the A-B double bottom. Let me explain how I like 2 trade off S/R. I look at 8T, 40T, 200T, 1000T, 30M, D, W, and M charts (futures/forex). I use 1000T and larger for S/R. I use 1000T for trend direction. I use 200T to identify DT/DB and Pull Backs at S/R. I use 40T for entry. I look for a stall (several bars all stopping at S/R) and place a limit order 1-2 ticks from the stall extreme. I use the 8T for more detail if needed and to get a sense of how fast the market is moving. The stronger the S/R (i.e., the larger the market fractal it is visible on), the greater the likelihood of a tradable bounce. If prices punch through strong S/R (i.e., a losing trade), you can reverse because prices usually make a good move. I trade 3 units, 1st target is a small scalp and move stop to BE+1 on the balance. 2nd target is some S/R point, 3rd unit is a runner with a trailing stop. The benefits of trading this way are very low risk (usually 4 ticks per trade), larger profits, higher percentages wins (translates to lower drawdowns), over 80% with practice. Bill
Hi amitman, Thanks for your very interesting post. I am sure youâre going to make up your today losses in tomorrowâs trading.. i have been following jjrvatâs concept the great success, the only problem I have is to get my orders filled. I usually trade @YM normally with 10 contracts and to get them filled during this low volume period on time is quite a challenge. I wonder is there any specific reason why youâre trading SPY? I imagine this must take quite an investment to make some money if youâre just scalping for pennies. Iam also curious about your time frame that makes you comfortable trading SPY Thanks
Hi Dr N, Thank you for your kind words unfotunatly today wasn't a good day, hasitations from yesterday made miss two good trades so I've made only one good trade and had to leave early so no covering yesterdays loss. maybe tommorow. I trade the SPY because I find it easier to trade then the ES (although I sometimes trade the ES) becuase it moves in a 0.01 incercment and not in 0.025 like the ES making my entries and exits a bit better, thus enlarging my PT and tightening my stops. It's true that you need a lot of money to scalp the SPY profitably but I have this money and trading the spy with 2000-5000 shares each time can lead you to averaging 500$-2000$ every day, which is good enough, I guess.
jjrvat, I am going through this thread for last few days,infact in Indian Mkt we have a forum where since 2004 we are following many rules which i find here. Gr8 work ,1st time my attitude towards ET changed through your thread,otherwise mostly impotent traders trying to establish through Flaming & Big Mouths,thks for this thread. I am now at pg 49 & qouting a portion of your post 328 "How to use it? Common sense. Plot a good range of bars. Take the first bars on the right of the screen and compared the last bars on the left. Bars on the right lower/macro direction up, higher/down, not sure/stay aside. " I think there is some Typo error. Asish
uasish, yes - think typo mistake. Using common sense, last bars higher - trend up and vice versa. josch
Hi, 1st I want to thank you a lot -jjrvat- and others sharing excellent information in this thread. Because examples and posts are referring to stocks, indices and Forex, I want to focus to the indices, especially the ES. There was mentioned hard to scalp ES because of pushs up and down, which often happen. I'm feeling well with small profit by taking small risk instead of using larger waves/timeframes. Nonetheless I'm feeling unwell having a bad R/R, ie 3.5 points possible loss (set stop looking at last wave) to a 1.25 profit. So I try to be almost even with R/R, means using stoploss nearly possible profit. The success rate of this of course is bad compared to scalp (if I remember some members talking about 60-80%). It's about 50-60%. This is -imo- ok if looking for the 'edge', but in this case part of costs -commissions- are growing because of high number of trades compared to the 'small' profit below the line. So I want to continue part of the thread looking to this point, wondering if other traders experienced same and sharing thoughts about this. josch