Down move now the stoxx has hit 3350? currently at 4924.5, I'm starting to build a short position - does anyone else have a view?
yep, shorting a stong creeper strong trend is a bold move :eek: FTSE's key level recently seemed to be 50% retrace of bear mkt drop - maybe the same for Dax ie 5170 area ? Although FTSE broke through it..... 500 point leg up to 4640 area - so maybe another 500 on this puts it above 5000 ?
Did you listen to CNBC this morning? Some technical analyst was saying that according to his calculations, the DAX would hit its high for the year on July 29 (today). I generally don't believe those kinds of statements but just wanted to let you know. What is your rationale for shorting, why do you see 3350 on the ESTXX as major Resistance? FYI: I've been scalping the DAX & ESTXX for the last 2 years, so I'm personally very interested in this topic but I would never put on a trade just because we have hit some technical level, I always wait for a confirmation from the market. ( I only trade what I see, not what I think)
This might sound arrogant, but sometimes I just have the congruent, underlying feeling within me about how the mkt is feeling. It's gone up and up and up, and I've bought all the way since 7th July... Now I wanna cash in my chips, and go short. I can just sense that we need a retracement to get fresh buyers back in ........
Fair enough, but many a trader has by been burnt following this logic....just because a market is overbought doesn't mean it can't go higher...these kinds of feelings & opinions come at a hefty price in this business.... I wish you good luck
nice to see other people trading the dax. We get GDP and Michi today and any up-pop in Dax on that Data would be in my view a final capitulation spike which can be shorted. I also agree the Dax is ripe now for a decent correction, but don't expect to much, the trend is still up ! Same in ES today. If we get an gap-up opening due to "good data", its a very high prob short for a gap close and maybe more. Good luck !
Yeah I agree, trend is up - don't worry, this isn't a LONG term trade, I'll have half out by today, already scalped some on some, this is just a short trade with the expectation that it will come off "a bit" to get fresh buyers A lot of the selling volume at 4923 has been me getting out of my long and getting short
hey george - were you shorting the bund too at 120-121 back in may? ok i agree typically it "does come off" but we've had some runs lately, all time highs in the bund and multi year highs in the indices (well, may as well thow in the run in the euro in the last couple of years... and.. what the heck, oil too - actually i havent done the stats on shorting fresh highs in all these major asset classes, probably would be an interesting stat to see.
OK, I know what you're saying, but I'm not implying that this is the top, period, it'll never go higher than this. The trend is up, BUT the mkt has come a long way - I'm just saying, I'm cashing in my chips, and reversing for a bit ... I think as in every up move, it needs to come lower to get fresh buying going. Yes it's going up, a slow grind every day, but I think now is the time (FOR ME) to start looking at riding a down dip
by the way, its funny if you get against a trend and try to play a correction (which by the way is allowed and if you are smart you can make some money here) the more agressive posts you get NOT to be so stupid to go against the trend, the more likely this trade has a good outcome. As long as you have a plan and a stop is in place, no problem. Not this time, only a general remark.