Interesting points. The level of GDP depends basically upon three variables, namely capital stock, work force and technology. You are stressing out the human part of the equation and I happen to agree with you. What is your take on emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India? They are still experiencing relatively high rates of population growth, have high capital stock (in termos of natural resources and physical space to grow) and both their government and people are well adapted to adverse and instable economic conditions, specially in Brazil.
No, and I don't care. My comments weren't designed to buttress his reputation as a market oracle. Thx D
not adjusting for lost purchasing power. and before this dump, you would have felt like setting your hair on fire. They were getting K-I-L-L-E-D.
5000? I think he is smoking the funny stuff! But there is always a chance. Who thought crude oil would trade at $150?
Maybe. Look at the BEARX chart. Visualize $1MM retirement fund at the start in BEARX and near the bottom you would have been afraid to open the account statement, not even accounting for inflation/loss in purchasing power and also doesn't account for fees (need to check that). So IF some guy said, we are down 15%, but the market is down xx% from the highs - the implication is out-performance. That is not a clear picture, because a fund such as BEARX actually ate it big-time. So the risk is these guys haven't beaten USTs or even CASH, not to mention the sickening roller coaster port balance variances & added risk. I'm less concerned whether a money manager is right or wrong on his predictions, and more concerned if he can make me money or at least keep from losing it. Hussman seems to be very bearish at times, but he manages to hedge his convictions & is NOT A ONE TRICK PONY.