I wonder what he will say if we tank 5000 in the Dow for good now. "Ok folks that's it I'm closing my fund we're at fair value now" LMAO
What did the Nasdaq do 4500 down to a thousand and change. The drop in 1987 and the drop in 2000 -2003 taught me that the market and individual stocks can drop far further than you think imaginable.
Federated's Tice Says S&P 500 Is Poised to Plunge 62% http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=a6hgHyLBy0VU
I know the many will shoot me down as others have tried, but I have been a bear since July 2007. I have traded nearly three decades, all kinds of market disasters, some man-made and others government made and some even nature made. But it doesn't take a genius to see that the economy is going to get much much worse. My Father's generation had produced the "Baby Boomer's", many many people, WE worked hard and long. We bought and bought and bought, we caused the stock market to become the greatest bull market ever. BUT we had much less children plus since there is Abortion, this also reduced the amount of the next generation. Well, Baby Boomers getting older and buying much less, our kids don't seem to have the same drive as we did, and buying so much less, no sustained effort to buy, so weak companies go out of business, that is normal, the strong survive. But when Clinton was Pres., telling the banks make it easier for those who can't qualify to buy a home, this was the start of over inflating units built, more demand increases extreme prices. Banks will continue to fail as months go by, the strong can't buy everyone. Illegal alliens is also another reason of added problems, major concern of why California going under, take them back to the country they came from and use prisoners to pick crops, hard menial work usually makes many not to want to return. Illegals do many more good paying jobs that our citizens can do. USA no longer is a Industrail country, we allowed China to take our jobs for better stock market profits, USA can't force companies to make factories, so tax the crap out of foreign made products. Free trade is not free, we lose every time. Offer companies huge incentives for new factories, not bailing out the weak companies. We need jobs to make stock market to go up. Baby Boomers will also completely drain off all monies for retirement and health. Our kids will not be able to come close to paying enough taxes. So reduced buying of goods, reduction of jobs makes foreclosures. It will become a snowball effect. Kick in extreme government bailout which will never be paid back. If you can't see the writing on the wall, you deserve to lose your money. So long as unemployment continues to expand, economy will get much worse. Soon people will be taking retirement funds out for bare needs, even less money to keep stock market up. I bought the S&P futures four weeks ago, but I believe this is a dead cat bounce. I can see the Dow going to 2000. Many of you youngsters will think this funny, but how many of you have thought it would have dropped this far? We will be going lower eventually. Handle
In hindsight, we had a warning in August 2007 in the currency markets. Over the next several days, the Fed injected more funds than it had ever done prior. Your analysis was timely.
Here's Tices magic SP500 forecast formula, valid at all times: Code: SP500_Target = Close(SP500,0) * 0.5
Take a look at this site, to see what you think about fair valuation of the market based on historical Pe values. The site suggests that based on TTM Pe ratios, that the current levels for Dow and SnP may be overpriced and could come down. http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html
Hi, I know nothing of this David Tice guy and won't indiulge in any childish personal attacks upon him. He may or may not end up being in the right on price correction. It's hard to say. However, I will say that most of the contributors to this thread appear to exhibiting linear thinking when they talk about their expectations for this downturn, it's depth and it's duration. By that I mean, taking the view that because every bear market and recession they're familiar with has been of of certain dimensions then this market should be bottoming about now. In my view the S&P is currently reflecting that kind of sentiment. However, the long term historic precedent for bear markets and slumps isn't so neatly packaged. And given the sheer magnitude of the problems that still exist and that are not yet fully reflected in the real economy this recession is unlikely to be ending in the near term. It's my opinion that corporate earnings are likely to be nasty all of this year (maybe a Q4 pickup) and that consumer spending will be on life support for a long time (I don't know how long). So, in essence I would suggest that the risk in this market is still very much to the downside and the probability of the magnitude of that move being much larger than correspondants to this thread acknowledge is not insignificant. So, David Tice may yet be proven not to have been talking complete nonsense after all. Thx D
We will never revisit DOW 5000. The economy will worsen, but the stock market will stay rangebound. The divergence between real economy and wallstreet economy will only worsen.