Magna, "Magna Carta (Mag·na Car·ta or Mag·na Char·ta Pronunciation Key (mgn kärt) A document or piece of legislation that serves as a guarantee of basic rights. " (dictionary.com) Please Bless my visit to the land of Lost Wages with the power of thy "guarantee and basic right" so that I do not loose my ass! lol If I do, I'm moving in with Tony in his new house in Sunny California! That's my HEDGE! lol
Dave, I'm worried that you might get carried away at the craps tables in Vegas and as fellow trader with genuine concern, I spent significant time this Saturday morning coming up with the following ideas on how you might insulate yourself from major losses. These are my own original thoughts and I have no proof that they will help but they seem to make good common sense. 1.) Only gamble with money you know you can afford to lose. Decide in advance how much risk capital you want to take with you and -worse case scenario-when it's gone it's gone. 2.) Craps is a game of probabilities and odds. Decide in advance how much you can afford to lose on each roll based on your overall betting capital allocated to this venture. Then make sure to bet no more than that amount no matter what. Since you will have no real previous experience to draw on, I suggest starting with a bet of no more than 1%- 2% of the total amount decided upon in item #1. This should give you enough rolls of the dice to put the law of Probabilities more on your side. 3.) If you are up initially, consider taking some or all of your initial betting capital "off the table" so that, in a worse case scenario you walk away flat should you go into a losing streak. 4.) If you are down initially, avoid the temptation to increase your bet size-referred to as "doubling down"-in an attempt to quickly get back to a scratch position. While this may make sense in theory, it is a recipe for disaster. Remember, if you start with $5,000 and lose $1,000 betting $100 each time, you have lost 20% of your capital. However to get back to even, you have to make the $1,000 on the remaining $4,000 -requiring a 25% positive return while you are on a losing streak. Dangerous. 5.) Should the unfortunate circumstances in number 4 occur, always remember to maintain a sense of discipline to just "walk away". Avoid emotions like fear and greed at all costs. Take a break and evaluate your betting style, strategies, etc. When you return, decrease your bet size by at least half until you establish a winning streak. Like I said, I just thought of these myself while pondering the idea of betting on craps and I really don't know what I am talking about since I myself would never venture into something as risky as gambling. Seems crazy to me to put one's hard earned capital at the mercy of "odds and probabilities". But these thoughts just seemed to make sense so I hope it helps.
According to the .gif of the live presentation, Dave didn't NEED to trade AMAT at all that day, all he had to do was buy the stock at 24.04 and sell it to NEED the MM at 24.18. Rinse and repeat. What a great country.
Dattrader, What a great post. This is what makes you a good trader. It is in fact still gambling! What's to like. So...I agree, the best bet is to not bet at all!
I view my visits to casinos (be they in the desert of Vegas, the seacoast of Atlantic City, or the tree-lined streets of continental Europe) as more of a social endeavor... as some on this forum may know, I am somewhat of a connoisseur of good food and beverage, and I believe casino food to be some of the best around... now, if you couple the highly subsidized prices of a gourmet dinner at a casino with the glitz and buzz of making a few bets on the blackjack table, that makes for a highly enjoyable evening, often cheaper than a bland 3 course meal at a conventional top restaurant... so gambling at casinos should regarded as a cheap meal accompanied by blackjack (in my case)... trading, on the other hand, is how I fund visits to casinos in places such as Monte Carlo... admittedly trading and casino gambling can both be parameterised within a probabilistic framework, but the long-run return in trading can be skewed to $ positive expectancy (otherwise Elitetrader wouldn't exist as a viable forum!); casino gambling, on the other hand has long-run $ negative expectancy (for all participants but the casino itself), but "psychological" positive expectancy (food, social aspects etc) which make-up for the net $ losses... But for those of us amongst us who wish to attempt to apply the probabilistic approach in their trips to casinos, I would recommend the following book... http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/A...95623/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_3_1/103-3429016-7588654
Obviously you cant beat the crap tables over the long run but it is quite possible , on any given night, to get hot and take a chunk from the house. Stay away from the proposition bets. Play the line, take the odds. Cross your fingers.