I'm not in disagreement over how many Harvard dropouts are millionaires. I'm simply stating that in order to become wildly successful a person has to take risks. Most Harvard dropout millionaires aren't Bill Gates and most traders won't be Paul Tudor Jones. That's not a reason to not try something though. Fear of failure is not a reason to not try. I'd also like to preface that with if you have a family etc. you shouldn't take the same risks a single 28 year old can. I'm assuming OP's daughter is young debt free etc. If there ever was a time to take risks it's now.
The world isn't so black and white. Risk doesn't equal reward. You can take stupid risks and you can take smart ones. Zuckerburg, Gates, and probably many of those who competed with them and failed took smart risks. They had little to lose. If Microsoft failed, Bill probably could have gone to work for IBM. Side note. Notice that I am bringing up Zuckerburg who was entirely self-made and you brought up Bill Gates, whose family was prominent enough that he got his break because his mom was friends with the chairman of IBM. Clearly the two of them had different efficient frontiers for their lives. The two of them took the shot in something where he saw an opportunity to do something different. Today, would you support your child to drop out of school and try to sell an operating system? That would be a stupid risk. But if they saw an opportunity that other's hadn't and they wanted to explore it? Yeah. That could be smart. Specific to trading: what opportunity is there in trading as a second tier institution when you don't have a backup option? You run greater risk than your IB counterparts and you run substantially less upside. If you prove to be successul at an IB, then you have lots of opportunities. If you fail, you will leave but have credibility to go to another industry or move to a second tier situation. The probability of failure isn't 95%. If you start at a second tier your best bet is to get a small fund going or to trade your own money. Your worst case is that you fail and your experience is mostly useless to anyone else. The probability of failure is 95%. 10-20 years ago, the risk/reward was more favorable. It is the equivalent of busking in europe vs studying at Julliard. Ones a hobby, the other is a well thought out career. I don't understand the personal attacks. I must have struck a nerve. I have more equity style exposure in my life than 99% of the people here.
Not sure what you mean by equity style exposure but since you put in 99% of people here I'm sure it was some kind of dick waving. Cool, good for you. I would say, no, that busking in Europe is not the same as studying at Juilliard. It would also be a hobby if someone was treating it as a hobby and not as the pursuit of a career. If you look at most famous musicians I would bet less than half to a quarter went to Juilliard. (I know nothing of classical music though so I could be wrong. Another example of this would be professional football players who played at the tip top of college programs, less than a half did and many are from no name colleges.) I bet some even made it after busking in Europe. So why set artificial metrics, for your daughter or whoever, that must be met in order for her career choice to be an appropriate one. Do you think that when Bill Gates was developing windows everyone knew computers were going to be huge? No. Same with Jobs. He took a big risk regardless of how you frame it. If you think he was worried about a back up plan he would have graduated. To you stupid risk= ego blow or high chances of failure.
Would you have told Spielburg to quit film when he got rejected from USC film school because he had a C average in high school?
There are musicians who have been homeless and been wildly successul. It doesn't mean you should let your daughter get on a bus and go to LA with no money or anyone to call. Her likely career will not be in music. Take the shot but do it an intelligent manner. Again, back to the discussion of trading specifically: do you agree with my assessment of the industry?
What would you tell the other 1000 people who got rejected from USC film school? Cindy Crawford said in an interview that she was rejected from her first modeling agency. No problem. She was accepted by her second. She said, that if you are rejected by 4 or 5 then you probably shouldn't be modeling. Stupid risk = high chance of failure * no or limited option afterwards. I have a family member who is a professional athelete. He ended one level below the top tier in his sport. If he made it, he would be a god in his home country. Bigger than Lebron + Tom Brady combined. He didn't. He did okay though as he made a decent living teaching the sport to the next generation of "gods" and commentating on TV. That was a risk worth taking. He also had the option of being a wide receiver at a division 1 school. If he didn't make it to the NFL (doubtful he would), where would he be now? Selling used cars?
Modeling is completely different because it's based off looks which someone can't control. I would have told them if they really wanted to be in film to figure out what they did wrong and work on it. Most will just accept the rejection and move on, the passionate, willing, and successful people won't. They will work hard fix their mistakes and try again. Just like Spielberg. Will they all be Spielburg and make a billion, no, but they can succeed beyond their wildest dreams and work in a career that is their passion. Most people don't become Bill Gates, Spielburg, Tiger Woods etc., that doesn't mean you shouldn't give something a shot. Most people I know that have tried something hard but are passionate and work hard end up doing well, no matter where they start. The biggest losers to me are the people who never try and never find out. I would never tell my kid to not try, provided it's not an excuse to not work, especially if it's his or hers passion. What about Macy's would you have told him on his fourth try to just hang it up? I can't imagine how many people scoffed at that "fool" too. What about Hershey on his third try?
Modelling isn't different. How many girls could be models and aren't. Cindy Crawford never was the most attractive girl on the planet. She was at one point the most successful model on the planet. I never said he shouldn't try. What I am saying is that there are dumb decisions and smart ones. Luck is huge in all endeavors (modelling, music, trading). my chile will know what happens when luck doesn't favor the bold and what they should do to improve the probability of luck. I know many director-types in NYC who have film and tv as their passion. Luck didn't favor them or maybe they aren't that good. They make their rent by waiting tables or from a trust fund. If that makes them happy, fine. I would be disappointed in myself as a father if my child did not understand the consequences of failure (luck related or talent related). Often when they find out, it's too late to change your trajectory.
Are you kidding someone who fails at trading, assuming some kind of education i.e. college degree, would have a million options. How do you get no options? Do you know how many people go to med and law schools after the age of 30? Are you serious? This has got to be a troll. Alot of failed prop traders could become brokers. That is essentially what your family friend did that didn't succeed at being a professional athlete.