Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

Discussion in 'Journals' started by interdim, Dec 10, 2020.

  1. interdim

    interdim

    We got our thrust up but all in one 30Min bar...I don't see a big sell off here but we probably will pull back until around 2300, then back up until 100 and 130, then rollover backdown until early morning, but swing up and down. Everything should pick up to the upside after the 0630-0730 until 1300. Then you might have a short then.
     
    #21     Dec 13, 2020
  2. interdim

    interdim

    So far this is the chart the market followed last night and up until now. Not surprised they are trying to sell it right now. But the upward trend is still intact.

    upload_2020-12-14_7-18-14.png
     
    #22     Dec 14, 2020
  3. Interesting approach.

    Are you trading it?
     
    #23     Dec 14, 2020
    MarkBrown likes this.
  4. interdim

    interdim

    Price finally breaks and they go below the 3x3. I was expecting that since the market has pretty much followed the previously posted chart. On the N-1 Chart 0800 was an AV. 0900 and 1000 are AV's too so I expect chop or back and forth. 3680.25 was a sell if you wanted to be aggressive with a stop at 3683.75. But that could easily be flushed out

    upload_2020-12-14_8-24-41.png
     
    #24     Dec 14, 2020
  5. interdim

    interdim

    Not yet, (if I did it was insignificant with a Micro lot) because I see things happening that need to be clearly defined. e.g., on this Q chart all the action occurs between the inflection points of the Polynomial Peaks and Valleys, as you are seeing right now. The market comes to life.
     
    #25     Dec 14, 2020
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  6. interdim

    interdim

    Probabilities are still indicating a move up until 1300. But we will shake out traders for the first hour of the day session.
     
    #26     Dec 14, 2020
  7. interdim

    interdim

    What is happening now is what I expected to occur by 1030 giving the market support to go higher. I knew a shake out was coming but the question remains now is will they be able to regain momentum to go back up. This is why it is crucial to have a trend following tool for all the time frames

    upload_2020-12-14_10-56-53.png
     
    #27     Dec 14, 2020
  8. interdim

    interdim

    1300 will be a low not the High as I expected...When new algorithms are created along with multiple types of charts, you have to try and see if one will provide you with consistent, great moves or swings. The ultimate is to find those direct point A to B moves without symmetry swings inside of them. Now the chart below shows some great direct moves that are inverted....this is not out of the ordinary when working with non-linear data. But it also shows swings from highs to lows and lows to highs consistently.

    upload_2020-12-14_12-33-18.png
     
    #28     Dec 14, 2020
  9. interdim

    interdim

    This is why I use the 3x3 in all trading decisions....The 30Min Chart below.

    upload_2020-12-14_15-36-49.png
     
    #29     Dec 14, 2020
  10. interdim

    interdim

    The AllPlus Chart has been great at mapping out and identifying the swings in the market.

    upload_2020-12-15_7-2-24.png
     
    #30     Dec 15, 2020