Darvas Box Revisited

Discussion in 'Trading' started by schizo, Apr 12, 2020.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    Food for thought; :)

    Breakouts seem to be taken when they cross the last swing high but stop losses have to close the bar below the line.
     
    #21     Apr 25, 2020
  2. schizo

    schizo

    Excerpt from How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market (1960), pp. 44-45:


    I had learned from experience that my most difficult problem was to discipline myself not to sell a rising stock too quickly.
    I always sold too quickly because I am a coward. Whenever I bought a stock at 25 and it rose to 30, I became so worried it might go back that I sold it. I knew the right thing to do but I invariably did the opposite. I decided that since I could not train myself not to get scared every time, it was better to adopt another method.

    This was to
    hold on to a rising stock but, at the same time, keep raising my stop-loss order parallel with its rise.
    I would keep it at such a distance that a meaningless swing in the price would not touch it off. If, however, the stock really turned around and began to drop, I would be sold out immediately. This way the market would never be able to get more than a fraction of my profits away. And how to determine when to take profits? I realized that I would not be able to sell at the top. Anyone who claims he can consistently do this is lying. If I sold while the stock was rising, it would be a pure guess, because I could not know how far an advance might carry. This would be no cleverer a guess than anticipating that "My Fair Lady" would end its run after 200 performances. You could also guess it would go off after 300 or 400 performances. Why did it not go off at any of these figures? Because the producer would be a fool to close the show when he sees the theater full every night. It is only when he starts to notice empty seats that he considers closing the show. I carried the Broadway comparison through to the problem of selling.

    I would be a fool to sell a stock as long as it keeps advancing. When to sell then? Why, when the boxes started to go into reverse! When the pyramids started to tumble downwards, that was the time to close the show and sell out. My trailing stop-loss, which I moved up behind the rising price of the stock, should take care of this automatically.


    Having made these decisions, I then sat back and re-defined my objectives in the stock market:
    1. Right stocks
    2. Right timing
    3. Small losses
    4. Big profits
    I examined my weapons:
    1. Price and volume
    2. Box theory
    3. Automatic buy-order
    4. Stop-loss sell-order
    As to my basic strategy, I decided I would always do this: I would just jog along with an upward trend, trailing my stop-loss insurance behind me. As the trend continued, I would buy more. When the trend reversed? I would run like a thief.
     
    #22     Apr 26, 2020