For the first time we agree. Yes when the dow gets to 14000 stocks would definitely be roaring. Of course, that may be quite awhile from now, but yes, that would be a nice comeback. As I told you before there was a better chance we would see 12750 before we saw 14000. I think that is a given now. The bad thing about holding during a correction is you never make any money on the way down. You just sit and hope the correction doesn't turn into anything more. It just doesn't seem very prudent to me, but by all means continue the philosophy if you really think its working.
Its been a brutal past few weeks. The whole market has been getting hammered. No sector is safe. Feb 27th was a major upset and now this. Def. a tough year.
Hell, I think there's a good chance of this crunch will turn the market into a bear. All things come around. Everyone was saying this bull was running too long - well the time has come and this might be the end of it.
You cant be more wrong. this is not about equities this is about the credit markets which dwarf the stock market. all this asset inflation from stocks and bonds to real estate and so on was created from fiat money that never existed. so now these investment houses, hedge funds, banks will have to GO OUT OF BUSINESS. What scares me is that its not just the USA but the rest of the world(CHINA,INDIAetc) I see the DOW going to 6900
One thing I learned many years ago. NOTHING is as BAD or GOOD as it appears to be. No, we are not going to 6900, and no we are not going to 14000.
I have no clue where we are going but I would imagine intraday futures traders are loving the volitality .....equity traders lovin it as well I would imagine...
It is a dog market. Drops are too small to call it a bear.Have some respect for bear. Short CC, AAPL, OIH, HD, LOW and prosper. Don't go toward mortgage lending stocks. A short squeeze will kill you.
A bounce off the 200day looks like an obvious play but perhaps too obvious. Not much buying in to the close and we were practically there. The yen's strength suggests more downside action (and indeed may precipitate it) and Pooles's comments today certainly won't be helpful. It looks like the bigger funds are averaging down on some of their more risky positions but are still not creating enough of a bid to get the credit martket back on track in part because it is too complex. This complexity works against a quick recovery as in many cases people just don't know what they really have on the books and there is no way everything has been marked to market yet ("Demon of our own design" has a very pertinent chapetr on all of this). I haven't seen much capitulation in the techs which suggests that the view that things are going to be different going forward has yet to sink in, it will take news of more deals not getting done due to the lack of financing (essentially what has happened is that the ability to pass off credit risk has disappeared, ie no credit insurance is available in some cases at any price so banks that previously were able to extended credit paying a small premium for default insuarnce are now nolonger willing or able to do so and the implications of this I do not think has been factored in yet). I was trading in '87 and so far I haven't seen that type of action, there is still too much buying going on at every level. EEM has been the way to play this move (down some 14% vs only 6% on the dow) and will continue to be.