That mini bear market in March was great! I was shorting stocks practically with my eyes closed, the money was so easy. The key, though, was back then there was, at least for that short period, an overall bear sentiment in the market, which is what made it so easy. So far even with this string of down days, the same low hanging fruit has yet to appear and the market remains decidedly undecided. Let's see if today's yet another 150+ point loss finally makes up some minds.
Downtrend for sure, but bear market no. The monthly charts of the SPX and INDU haven't even made lower highs or anything which would signal a major change in trend. Not saying a bear market hasn't started, but it is too soon to call it that IMO.
were are only about 8.6% off the highs. Not even at 10% yet. Probably hit 10%, then rebound a little. Then we will see where this thing is gonna go.
Take a look at 1998: the SPX fell a bit over 17% according to my rough calculations and then the market kept rising until the REAL bear market began in 00/01. So far we are in a sharp downtrend, but anybody saying a new bear market has begun is just being dramatic.
Me no post here no more but I see you chart and over at the bottom of your computer by the clock I see icon of doggie. So me just have to say Woof Woof WOOF, WOOF, WOOF WOOF WOOF
The morning action is always the greatest 'tell' - why the fuck do the bulls aggressively buy the mornings if the bears engage in fire sales in the afternoon 18 out the last 20 sessions.
The trouble is the market has been slicing through these support levels like they don't exist. The market is loving giving bulls false hope at the moment - little rallies off of support followed by sharp down moves. That 12800 level might provide a few hours of support but the bear move is too strong at the moment. It's just orderly selling at the moment. Wait until we start to see some real panic.
for pete's sake. i love these unsubstantiated assumptions... are we in a bear market? no. not by most people's def. the 50 is above the 200, and we are still relatively close to all time highs. are we trending downwards? yes. at least on a shorter timeframe. regardless, there are ALWAYS good shorts AND good longs out there. it's a matter of proper risk profile and targeted entries. obviously (speaking from an intraday futures trading angle) there have been some PHENOMENAL shorting opp's. but also some great snapper shortcovering rallies to play long. i can be simultaneously short a position play and long a scalper play in the very same instrument (dow futes). it's all about risk management, time horizon, etc. but to say we are in a bear market is premature. we have certainly suffered some technical damage. that is sure and the trading is WONDERFUL!!!!!