Damn.. crash tomorrow..

Discussion in 'Trading' started by aaronk321, Apr 19, 2007.

  1. Why didn't I exit my positions today..
    China is taking a huge dump now..
    Hence, we're going down hard ..
  2. Youch.

    Shanghai down 4.5% again.

    It's a slow motion train wreck.

    Wait for the Yen to go up some more.
  3. China's up roughly 100% in the last 6 months. Yes, they're experiencing tremendous growth, but it's a highly speculative, weirdly structured market that favors Communist Party officials and is dominated by retail speculation and market mania. The US market will not sell off tomorrow based on a pullback in China.

    BTW, Nikkei futures - up 110. :D
  4. Now IF I had a degree in economics, I'd know the answer to this question...

    How can the Chinese market affect the american market to such a high degree?...can someone explain the fundamentals behind this?..

  5. Q12


    where do you get a quote on the hang seng? thx.
  6. Mvic


    It doesn't as it is a captive system, the falling chinese market is a symptom of a liquidity squeeze and that is what can have a contagious effect with the global pyramid of leverage so interconnected.
  7. I hear the Government is telling familys they can only own one stock.:D
  8. LOL :D
  9. You guys have no idea what your talking about, no clue.

    Ok lets put this together.

    Asia is far from a developed place. In fact, during my last visit in 2006, I had concluded that this is an economy that seems to be coming out of a great depression. Prostitutes in the streets, people sleeping in gutters and a frustrated populace.

    Dont forget that after the 70s (a huge beark market), the domestic market rallied incredibly from 1983 until 2000. 17 years.

    Why is the Shanghai market up so much? Its because Asia has been in the dumps for too long and its finally being turned around. Much like America was in the dumps in the 70s, Asia has been there for...forever.

    A market surges 35% since late February. Ok. At some point, its going to correct back. What is the most likely correction when the inflection point is reached?

    Here are the possibilities.

    March 5th low-2723
    April 18th high- 3623

    3623-2723= 900

    1/3 Retracement= 300 points= 3323

    1/2 Retracement= 450 points= 3173

    2/3 Retracement= 600 points= 3023

    Intraday low yesterday was 3358. 1/3 retracement has been achieved. I would expect a retest of this price point and double bottom before calling an inflection at this point.

    During advances, your going to usually expect a 1/2 retracement. Therefore I feel a retracement to 3173 is the most likely possibility before the next inflection upward.

    I dont mean to beat down on you guys, but the Shanghai market hasnt even opened yet and your saying its down 4%. Your looking at the chart from yesterday and you throw up this assanine thread.

    I think this thread was thrown up by the same guy who said he invented an indicator and wanted to patent it.
    #10     Apr 19, 2007