DAL - Airlines Showing Long Interest; Bullish Market Sentiment

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Sep 20, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    DAL closed at $11.18 on Friday, down 3.4%.

    <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TJdho2RuCbI/AAAAAAAAE2c/LWP8Xa2e_Zo/s1600/dal_summary_9-17.gif">

    On 8-20-2010 I wrote this: <b><a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/08/dal.html">Delta Air Lines (DAL) - Liquidity in Jan '11 with Spiked Vol</a></b>

    I noted these trades (best I could tell):
    Buy Jan '11 12 and 14.5 calls
    Buy Jan'11 10 puts
    Sell Jan '11 9 puts

    Friday saw more bullish action, with IV30&#8482 down 7 points (13%) and stock up 4% since the 8-20 blog.

    The company traded over 29,000 options on total daily average option volume of just 8,261. All but 2,437 contracts were calls yielding an 11:1 call : put ratio. The largest trade was over 8,000 Mar'11 15 call purchases. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/dal.html">in the article</a>).

    The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/dal.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the calls are opening (compare OI to trade size).

    The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/dal.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month.

    <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TJdhr17q6MI/AAAAAAAAE28/DEGT_J90oHo/s1600/dal_skew_9-17-2010.gif">

    The skew looks nice and normal, no upside reaction as of yet to the long interest in the calls.

    Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/dal.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs HV20&#8482 - blue vs HV180&#8482 - pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

    We can see short term implied is above the short term realized, but right in line with the longer term realized. Today the IV30&#8482 is actually up 4% in early morning trading to nearly 50. HV180&#8482 is 48.

    Long interest in the Airlines in my mind is a sort of confirmation that the market feels bullish. This order flow in combination with the flow from the prior blog (above) is a confirmation of that sentiment.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here:

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