I'm bullish on gold and oil right now. Ahmadinejad is not going to back down. He loves how the crisis is keeping oil prices high and would love to punish the West for any action it might take by temporarily shutting off its oil exports. Bush seems to have the weaker hand. My guess is that he will continue to have trouble getting support from Russia and China. But, his recent rhetoric suggests that he is not going to back down, either. See http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/14314420p-15222717c.html I think we will see some kind of watered-down resolution pass condemning Iran (watered down to appease Russia and China), and the Iranians will leap at the chance to show the world their economic might by shutting off oil exports temporarily. Gold and oil are both down somewhat from their recent highs as there is some doubt now about whether Bush is going to be able to arrange any kind of significant negative consequences for Iran. But I see Bush as someone who is willing to push through his vision of how the world should be, no matter how much it costs - economically, militarily, and politically. I think what we are seeing now is just the lull before the storm. Bush will leave a big mark in history, but my guess is that the next President will be a Democrat.
i believe gold (spot) would be rallying in a few days. below 618~620 is bearish. current price 625. gt
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={2F264F1E-CF44-4297-A2FB-3BA053DF6F2E}&siteid= London shares gain as miners support On the mining sector, analysts at Numis Securities said, "The mining sector looks set for further gains following the sell-off seen last May when hedge funds sold the sector heavily." Gold miners are up in London. Looking good. Oil is down, though. Crude dropped to $68.02 a barrel. I'm bullish on both gold and oil, but I'm little less sure about oil. Oil prices are somewhat weather dependent, and I have no idea what hurricanes will or will not cause disruptions. I think the case for gold is more clear-cut. Gold production is steadily declining. See http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=93140 Occasionally, there will some surprise discovery, but, for the most part, there can be little doubt that nearly all of the gold reserves that are going to be discovered have been discovered. The same might be said for oil, too, but advances in alternative energy could be a negative for oil at some point.
gold and silver are at the risk of reversal. they are testing strong support levels and showing weakness. i hope there would be possible downside moves. gt