Sold the AAPL @ 51.28 -- I'll look to re-enter. See Nichols last 2 days comments below - cowpok By David Nichols October 12, 2005 I'm looking for another move lower, with the SPX dumping down to 1175, or perhaps if it gets emotional down to 1170. This move down looks set to happen sometime soon, either this week or next. In my opinion this will be a buying opportunity -- and a potentially excellent one. If the SPX does fall down to there, it's not going to feel too appetizing to step in and buy at that point. The way I handle that is to do a small position, and then add once the thesis gains more credibility. The risk can then be well-contained if the idea is wrong. I want to buy such a down move to this 1175 area, as often markets like to move down to the spot of the original breakout before embarking on the last leg up. In this current fractal, 1178 was the spot of the original upside breakout back in May. ----------- October 13, 2005 As far as this decline, it's time to ask the age-old back-seat-of-the-car question: "Are we there yet?" This looks to me like a classic bottom at 1175, which has been my lower target since 1227, which is over 50 points higher. I have 3 separate fractal projections for a low right in this 1175 zone, which gives me confidence in this forecast for a bottom. If prices simply blow through this area to the downside -- and don't even look back -- then I'l have to re-assess the situation entirely, as in that case the downside fractal would be expanding in size, which could mean the decline was doubling. It doesn't happen very often this way, but when it does, it is serious business. But I don't think we'll see this scenario right now. The shape of the decline into this 1175 target gives me more confidence that we'll see an important bottom in this area.
GENERAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY: The market held & rallied on Friday as predicted (see last post âThis looks to me like a classic bottom at 1175â). According to Wall Street Winners: ââ¦.In fact, there's already evidence that the downside move is already fairly long in the tooth; the averages are likely to start stabilizing during the next two weeks and establish a tradable low. ... There's still a valid shot at a strong year-end rally and new .. highs for the averages." According to Yahoo Finance: Thursday and Friday saw an improved tone. On Thursday, the S&P opened lower, but rallied in the afternoon to close down less than 1 point. There were few earnings reports and the bond market was lower, so in the absence of any news the stabilization was noteworthy. Friday the S&P closed up 10 points on some good news. Most importantly, the September core rate of CPI was reported up only 0.1%. The total CPI was up a whopping 1.2%, and that is important. Today's Highlights Upgrades Company Name Symbol Details Analyst Charlotte Russe CHIC Hold Deutsche Securities Constellation Brands STZ Mkt Perform Bernstein CNS Inc CNXS Neutral Miller Johnson Downgrades Company Name Symbol Details Analyst Hilton Hotels HLT Neutral Susquehanna Financial Gap Inc GPS Hold AG Edwards Meridian Gold MDG Hold Deutsche Securities Splits Company Name Symbol Split Ratio JED Oil JDO 3-2 Dynamic Materials BOOM 2-1 Earnings Company Name Symbol EPS Estimate C C A INDS INC CAW 0.12 I suggest watching GOOG & GILD (reports on Tuesday & I give it a good chance of beating estimates) as potentially good trades. cowpok1027
good day generally for the bulls (AND ME !!). Trades - #1 GILD @ 2pm buy @ 47.30 holding #2 GOOG @ 10:30am buy @ 297.55 & 11:30am buy @ 297.45 sold 1 0f 2 (1/2 of position) @ 305 near close #3 ZMH @ 10:40am buy @ 67.15 sell @ noon @ 67.50 ZMH @ 12:40pm buy @ 67.38 & @ 2:30pm buy @ 67.50 sold 1 0f 2 (1/2 of position) @ 68.10 near close I expect a choppy but generally higher market until @ least Thursday. i'll try to get to a pre-market post. Good Trading & Good Health !! cowpok1027
Hi cowpok - I see you're trading ZMH again. Its been a thorn for me & last time I quizzes you -- you said too late to sell & too early to buy -- what now? blue2and2
Hi blue- Yea, I remember. Nothing stays the same in the market you know. --- Cramer panned ZMH on Friday's show in spite of better tek action as response in lightning round (guess someone else was watching - ZMH action that is). Cramer said R&D coming out of his group @ the Street says pricing still not good (products). Meanwhile, ZMH is wrapping up a very nice deal with the European leader in bone cement & featured as tops in minimally invasive knee replacement arthroplasty Crammer has always called ZMH "best of breed" so I rate it a virtual certainty that he will plug ZMH before the month is over. -- I saw ZMH as a VERY LOW RISK PLAY & liked the way it rebounded off the low it set last week. Based on Fibonacci I see at least 71- 71 1/2. cowpok1027
Look back @ my recent post & you'll see I like GILD for @ least a ST Trade right here going into what I expect to be a blowout earnings announcement after today's close. I'M BUYING THE HECK OUT OF -----> GILD !!! ALSO BUYING -- CALLS & SELLING PUTS on it @ any decent pricing GO GILD !! Good Trading & Good Health --------- cowpok1027
GILD closed regular trading @ 48.20 up .47 MY average purchase price for the day was 47.70 on 500 shares & I took the .50 profit on all the shares @ the close But I'm holding 5 calls & 10 puts -- & GILD is tanking after reporting record sales & .01 earnings exceeding estimates. Why?? Was their a much higher wisper number that was driving GILD to near record stock prices? I'm about to listen in on company conference call -- its @ 4:30pm & can be accessed @ 800-798-2884 pass code 35669095 cowpok1027
HI cowpok Are You still in GILD? What's your take on ZMH now? How come you've stopped posting? Regards - blue2and2
Hi blue2and2 RE: Are You still in GILD? What's your take on ZMH now? How come you've stopped posting? ======== 1- Yes I'm in GILD (kept long position since October post & added more in low to mid 40's) --> Note its gotten recent broker upgrade with $63 target leading to upward price with volume spike so it looks good. 2- ZMH is improving & seems to have bottomed but is not a major play yet. I sold 10 Nov 65 puts on 10/31 & expect to hold thru expiration for 100% profit (I'd be surprised if it breaks 65 before 11/18 with improving short term nmarket conditions. 3- Sorry I've been negligent in not posting recently due to time constraints. I'll try to get going again on posts --> FYI - my recent long positions are in the following: ELOS, IRIS (added to position) & CKCM.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL !! Well 2005 went out like a lamb on the street of dreams. Will 2006 be better or worse? List your favorite stock for the year here by 4 Jan 2006 9:30am to be eligible for a special prize. 2 winners #1 you must have the best performance #2 you must make the best prediction of stocks price @ close of last trade for 2006. My picks will be posted @ 9:30am 1/4/06. GOOD HEALTH & GOOD TRADING cowpok