Daily Trading - Stock Analysis Discussion

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by cowpok1027, Sep 13, 2005.

  1. This thread will be for listing of interesting stocks with associated technical & news/fundamentatal info. It will include both questions & comments on the listed stocks & their derivatives

    I intend to post pre-market & post-market (altho there is no guarantee this will occurr every day). I may post intra-day if possible & appropriate.

    I invite all interested parties to read & contribute to the discussion of posted stocks as a primary objectivre of the thread. Additional stocks may be added with the caveat that there shall be no penny stocks, scamming, solicitation or inappropriate info posted here under any circumstances.

    I also invite discussions of strategies & analysis for trading of stocks or their derivatives, sectors, or the market in general altho there are other threads devoted to these.

    I am a trader (NOT a broker) of both stocks & stock options.
     
  2. stock to watch IMO:

    AMZN, NVDA, MEDI, ADSK, NEXM
     
  3. GENERAL MARKET CONDITION:
    Open til 11am --> Opened weak & trended down
    11am til 2:15 pm --> rally
    2:15pm til close --> retreat

    UP on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    ASR 40.20 +0.80 +275
    PDFS 17.59 +1.33 +248
    FST 51.20 +1.59 +183
    TTI 29.49 +0.69 +171
    GRMN 64.64 +1.38 +119
    NTES 85.05 +1.30 +114
    SWN 61.12 +4.17 +111
    CRM 23.62 +1.96 +96
    CMCO 22.34 +1.51 +79
    CTRP 63.11 +1.47 +71
    GIL 36.00 +1.38 +70
    KEYW 24.05 +0.94 +62
    KNDL 24.88 +0.96 +57
    GLW 21.74 +0.54 +51
    FCFS 25.21 +0.60 +47
    FORD 28.46 +0.54 +46
    TXN 33.96 +0.85 +43
    GOOG 311.68 +1.94 +30
    NVDA 33.05 +0.97 +30
    ISSX 24.64 +0.83 +29

    DOWN on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    WMAR 16.04 -2.02 +1,600
    ECPG 17.87 -1.69 +639
    GTK 34.15 -0.66 +609
    BBY 44.79 -5.57 +548
    WES 60.94 -0.64 +545
    ZMH 73.98 -4.26 +518
    IPCR 38.00 -1.54 +407
    VTAL 17.86 -0.74 +399
    SMA 24.00 -0.98 +384
    PBKS 34.17 -0.69 +350
    NILE 34.18 -0.51 +334
    KRI 61.46 -3.44 +306
    SBNY 27.40 -2.19 +231
    SYK 50.95 -2.32 +214
    PUMP 17.31 -0.98 +192
    CKEC 23.71 -1.14 +184
    HZO 27.94 -0.91 +183
    VRNT 40.73 -2.00 +183
    BRC 33.30 -0.56 +182
    CDWC 58.50 -2.96 +182

    SETUP FOR TOMMORROW - Questions & Comments (time constrained so more will probably follow):

    BEST TRADE OF THE DAY (for me) ENER - Opened down hard after earnings report (Loss but less than Qtr vs.Qtr).
    ENER isn't an earnings play but rather a "story" stock with patents applicable to alternative enery (eg, UPS, sunlight to electric including hybrid vehicle). RALLIED ALL DAY with 2 spikes back near opening lows which were quickly reversed around 11:15am. After the 2nd down spike it regained momentum up (I bought @ this point @ 34.98. CLOSED @ 37.40 +1.29. An amazing reversal!!
    I'm holding overnight but will MONITOR closely due to strong 5 day rally means its due for a pullback from new high it made today.

    Question of the Day: What do you think of ZMH - SYK - BMET as ortho industry fell hard on a London's firm reported softness coming in business prospects. tyhese have been high growth firms & worthy of look on pullbacks in the past such as the last one prompted by reports of government inquiry from which they rallied strongly (Note: I follow ZMH closely & believe it will rally as in the past).

    cowpok

    * courtesy of IBD
     
  4. Up ON ABNORMAL VOLUME: @ Approx 9:45 am

    LEH 113.90 +1.57 +1,186
    NTG 22.50 +0.65 +967
    PDFS 17.71 +1.45 +956
    KNDL 25.33 +1.41 +616
    ASR 40.55 +1.15 +426
    CTRP 62.83 +1.19 +413
    TXN 34.29 +1.18 +283 I'm Long
    KEYW 24.21 +1.10 +280 I'm Long
    CRM 23.81 +2.15 +244 I'm LOOKING FOR ENTRY
    TTI 29.40 +0.60 +233
    FST 50.97 +1.36 +182
    CKCM 18.74 +0.69 +153
    SWN 61.49 +4.54 +136
    CMCO 22.40 +1.57 +116
    CONN 28.73 +0.78 +114
    GIL 36.46 +1.84 +91
    FORD 28.57 +0.65 +82
    AIZ 38.03 +0.88 +68
    VLO 112.38 +1.53 +66
    FRK 58.20 +0.60 +56
     
  5. Now long CRM @ 23.35 per 11:15am trade
     
  6. GENERAL MARKET CONDITION:
    Open til close --> retreat (only 2 10 minute rallies, 1st @ 10am brought market approximately even on the day

    UP on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    UBB 45.85 +1.75 +476
    CELG 54.77 +1.86 +358
    NTG 23.23 +1.39 +307
    MATR 37.60 +1.24 +142
    KNDL 25.90 +1.02 +114
    GIL 36.91 +0.91 +108
    GMEB 34.02 +0.79 +107
    CKCM 19.51 +1.41 +100
    CMCO 23.26 +0.92 +90
    BVN 28.91 +1.73 +59
    TLM 48.23 +0.66 +56
    BHP 31.82 +0.59 +52
    TALX 36.90 +1.88 +46
    CAM 71.49 +0.79 +42
    GRP 38.20 +1.43 +40
    LOGI 39.10 +0.50 +35
    TXU 103.70 +2.59 +34
    ASR 41.40 +1.20 +28
    REM 36.30 +0.81 +23
    EOG 69.20 +0.75 +21

    DOWN on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    ENH 34.60 -2.35 +583
    PGNX 23.85 -1.17 +568
    KBAY 21.36 -0.64 +529
    CPB 30.23 -0.67 +518
    MRH 24.90 -0.87 +480
    CKEC 22.30 -1.41 +471
    CEC 31.28 -3.20 +467
    PTP 29.29 -1.00 +349
    BRC 31.16 -2.14 +318
    ANTP 18.26 -1.15 +305
    ZMH 72.19 -1.79 +288
    LPMA 29.00 -1.26 +274
    PII 49.97 -2.43 +248
    PPX 31.46 -0.54 +244
    KRI 60.07 -1.39 +238
    LVS 35.30 -0.71 +235
    PLL 28.17 -1.79 +208
    DEO 59.72 -1.02 +203
    KEYW 23.51 -0.54 +197
    MATK 40.46 -2.49 +197

    SETUP FOR TOMMORROW - Questions & Comments (time constrained so more will probably follow):

    TRADES OF THE DAY (for me)
    BUY CRM - My only buy @ 23.35 - holding. // ENER(I bought @ 34.98 yesterday - holding.
    SALE GOOG - Sold full position. I had made multiple buys beginning with 9/7 break over 50dma @ fill of 292.10. My metrics called for sale of 1/2 of position upon trade of less than 311.42 (my fill on this part was 310.95) & sale of last 1/2 of position if GOOG traded under 306.17 (my fill on this part was 305.98). GOOG is still in uptrend but I like profits & hate losses so with the negative BIDU news and pending GOOG 2ndary stock offering I played safe - I'll wait to see if GOOG breaks to new highs ( which it just barely missed on the move from 9/7 to-date or breaks back under its 50dma.
    --------------------
    Yesterday's Question of the Day: What do you think of ZMH - SYK - BMET as ortho industry fell hard on a London's firm reported softness coming in business prospects. these have been high growth firms & worthy of look on pullbacks in the past such as the last one prompted by reports of government inquiry from which they rallied strongly (Note: I follow ZMH closely & believe it will rally as in the past).
    -------------------
    FOLLOWUP: All 3 were down today although given market conditions, only ZMH was RELATIVELY weak. Here's the interesting INSTITUTIONAL TRADING PICTURE --> while all 3 show more buying since the fall than before, BMET & SYK also had buying before but ZMH did not. BMET & SYK had some selling before the London firm's news release but ZMH had VERY HEAVY selling before it. While not a definitive statement of collusion or anything like that, ZMH had such a high correlation (line of demarcation) of SELLING BEFORE THE NEWS & BUYING AFTER THE NEWS by the big guys that its eerie.
    SO WHAT?
    Since ZMH has still been a relative weakling, you can't buy yet. But for me at least, ZMH is on my TOP STOCKS TO WATCH LIST.
    ------------
    Question of the Day: What is the only stock that appears on both IBD TOP ATTRACTIVENESS LIST(s) the 4/20/05 list & today's?
    Its #1 in its group and recently completed a major acquisition.

    cowpok1027

    * courtesy of IBD
     
  7. Hi Cowpok,

    Whats your stop on CRM,

    seems to be heavily overbought, can't go up much from there , Should exercise high caution on that :)
     
  8. GENERAL MARKET COMMENT:
    David Nichols said pre-market:
    The trading action in equity markets still looks to me like a typical test back down, prior to the main uptrend re-establishing itself.

    So far this move down does not look too ominous. A test down to touch the previous swing high is so commonplace that it is not even noteworthy. Markets are constantly "inhaling and exhaling" in their movements, and at this point I consider this just a normal "inhale" (pullback) ahead of a potentially much larger "exhale" (trending move up).

    If the SPX is able to bounce off this 1223 area -- and we may have to wait until options expiration is out of the way for this to happen -- then a bullish pattern should continue to unfold. Accordingly, here is my road map up to 1280.

    Please keep in mind that this is the maximally bullish scenario, which should remain intact as long as the SPX stays over 1217. If it plays out this way, it should be clear sailing all the way up to SPX 1260. That is the spot to look for resistance, and potentially a multi-day pullback -- most likely back to 1245. After that pullback from 1260, the final move up to a top at 1280 should come quickly.

    If the markets can't muster a rally, and instead head down in earnest, breaching SPX 1217 in the process, then the bullish scenario is not necessarily vanquished. At that point we'd have to throw out this maximally bullish road map, and we'd have to deal with a more difficult trading environment. Essentially we'll have to wait for the fractal patterns to re-set and re-emerge if the SPX sinks under 1217.

    But for now, this current upside fractal looks very promising, and I like a speculative trading position here for a run to 1280, with a stop on a close below 1217, or 1214 intraday.

    Gold had a big day up on Thursday, and the upside pattern is now confirmed and looking good. This up day in gold happened on a day that the dollar was also strong, and this is one of the best confirmations of gold's strength that we could see. It's undeniably bullish.

    Gold should get to $476 on this move, with perhaps a brief pullback at $463. I'm using the December gold futures contract, symbol GCZ5, for these figures.

    The XAU index of gold and silver stocks, which is a derivative play on gold, is also on fire right now.

    If you're long XAU options, I would recommend taking these off at $110, which could come up quickly from here. I have a higher target on the XAU up at $120, but I don't think it will get through $110 on the first try. With options it's not much fun to suffer through a pullback, as the premium can get sucked out of calls very quickly in this situation. And XAU calls are expensive too. So I'm planning on taking profits at $110, and monitoring this index for a re-entry.

    UP on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    HOLX 51.30 +4.38 +1,369
    VIVO 18.25 +0.55 +1,220
    TRN 39.35 +1.15 +869
    CTHR 24.96 +2.68 +566
    SMTS 24.44 +1.04 +520
    MEE 54.13 +2.63 +514
    LSTR 39.86 +2.00 +485
    OPWV 19.52 +0.85 +460
    CLF 81.29 +2.39 +414
    AIT 34.95 +0.58 +410
    DEX 27.76 +0.85 +403
    PRA 45.82 +0.69 +392
    LOJN 19.65 +1.36 +386
    MGRC 28.68 +0.59 +375
    HNI 59.44 +1.09 +358
    GLW 20.21 +0.64 +338
    GNSS 23.43 +0.58 +336
    PENN 32.26 +1.05 +320
    BVN 30.87 +0.62 +302
    BECN 31.81 +1.13 +266

    DOWN on ABNORMAL VOLUME *

    OPEN 21.74 -1.35 +3,369
    OI 20.95 -2.72 +2,263
    CLC 29.21 -2.14 +1,216
    FUL 29.66 -2.79 +1,057
    FO 85.26 -2.24 +636
    SMBI 25.90 -0.93 +610
    SLGN 33.14 -1.40 +584
    HW 36.25 -1.81 +499
    DGIN 25.50 -0.98 +442
    FORR 19.69 -0.61 +427
    JLL 46.02 -1.48 +418
    EPAX 20.87 -0.55 +413
    NPO 32.60 -0.55 +412
    CNF 49.87 -0.92 +398
    SMMX 26.50 -0.52 +378
    BOW 30.80 -0.61 +376
    SHPGY 37.28 -0.65 +367
    FORM 25.49 -1.24 +349
    SRCP 19.80 -0.60 +331
    CLHB 30.55 -1.24 +313

    * IBD as of 10:45am

    Answer to previous Question of the Day: VLO

    TRADES OF YESTERDAY (for me)
    SOLD ENER @ close @ 37.60
    SOLD Oct 22.50c on CRM @ 1.60

    Answer to coolweb - I don't use S/L as such since I'm watching the markets real-time constantly with "alerts" set (my computer with issue audible & blinking signals) @ critical price & volume points on positions + extensive list of stocks I'm interested in either for buy or sell. I also often hedge with options where appropriate (see above). On CRM institutions have been buying on & since spike up on Tues 9/13 so I converted to covered call position as it showed some weakness (I don't believe its overbought) .
     
  9. Hi cowpok

    You asked what thr ET traders think of ZMH, SYK, & BMET. I agree that they will ralley & I KNOW that ZMH is the leader in that group.

    Thus, I pulled the trigger on ZMH today bought 1000 shares at avg price of 72.20. My target is 78 filling the gap.

    Mr Blue
     
  10. Greetings blue2and2

    While I haven't prepared my pre-Monday post yet, I wanted to say right away that I'm with you & I've already started putting my money where my mouth is.

    I just initiated positions in ZMH Dec & Jan calls in my Type #2 account (see below). ZMH is my trade of choice in this group as the definite leader (or "best of breed" as Cramer - who likes ZMH - says).

    I divide my investment/trading accounts, at least mentally, into 3 segments-->
    #1 Short Term Bullish - for day trading thru about 2 month holdings
    #2 Long Term Bullish - for longer term positions
    #3 Bearish -

    I agree with you're analysis that says ZMH will go to 78 (& beyond). the question is timing since stocks that tank like this rarely pop right back in a "V"-shaped formation. The 50% retracement your looking for is resonable, however, and could be achieved short-term.

    This situation looks to me like the classic "sector shake out" where the big guys & pros get to eat the little guys-investors-amateur techies lunch. Look @ my prior post on ZMH action. Friday was more of the same with the big guys & pros buying down ticks @ a rate of approx 10-1.

    Good Trading & Good Health !! cowpok
     
    #10     Sep 17, 2005