Is there a daily option strategy which makes profit 70% of the time? And when it has losses , it losses a small amount. I thought about writing the middle , in a combination of butterflies on puts and calls ,with third butterfly after the price has moved to reduce losses.
Unimaginable. Your edge loss exceeds the strike-width. Excelsior! Spot=1.32280 Long 2 of the 13180/13220/13260 call flies from 15.90 Long 2 of the 13200 calls outright from 53.80 Long 2 of the 13300 calls outright from 5.50 Long 2 of the 13200/13250/13300 put flies from 19.10 Out 50bp in edge. I pray for your family this is sim.
I closed 4 middle for a profit , so give me constructive and good advice .I took a directional view , bit amateurish here. There was little today to volatility to skim the spread.
C'mon man, you can't possibly think that in the last three hours your problem was volatility. You paid a nickel in edge loss on every single, which equates to twenty cents on the flies alone. Add another nickel on the long call at 1.32. Time for a new nick.
Now: Long 2 13180C from 45.40 Long 2 13200C from 53.80 Long 2 13260C from 6.30 Long 2 13300C from 5.5 Long 2 13200/13250/13300 put flies from 19.10 Up $98 USD on the call-fly body offset You're long 8 calls. Long the put fly neutral to 13250. You're long spot. A lot of spot. You need to short 300k here to get neutral. If you can't short 300k EUR then cover this crap.
You're long 300k spot. Your best close within 1sigma is 1.325 due to the fly. Of course you have a runaway long here. Really a foolish position. It's nuts to deal in flies with IG. Then you add insult to injury in covering your 13220 calls. Why? Because you had a small gain on those? It was your only source of short deltas.