Daily Journal With New Model (not Technical or FundamentalAnalysis)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by galvinlee888, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. easymon1

    easymon1

    Do you track success rate vv $ P/L?
     
    #31     Oct 16, 2020
  2. INTC - close lower
    AMD - close higher
    FB - close higher
    MSFT - close lower
     
    #32     Oct 16, 2020
  3. INTC - lose
    AMD -lose
    FB - lose
    MSFT - win
    Cumulative % of winning = 8/23 = 35%
     
    #33     Oct 19, 2020
  4. 10/19 Prediction
    INTC - close lower
    AMD - close higher
    FB - close higher
    MSFT - close higher

    The cloud server is down and it takes me forever to run those simulation in my home pc.
     
    #34     Oct 19, 2020
  5. INTC - win
    AMD - lose
    FB - win
    MSFT - win

    Cumulative % of winning = 11/27 = 41%
     
    #35     Oct 20, 2020
  6. 10/20 Prediction
    INTC - close higher
    AMD - close higher
    FB - close higher
    MSFT - close higher
     
    #36     Oct 20, 2020
  7. INTC - Win
    AMD - Lose
    FB - Win
    MSFT - win
    Cumulative % of winning = 15/31 = 48%
     
    #37     Oct 21, 2020
  8. They

    They

    Congrats, you are at coin toss levels. Without listing the cumulative net $$ gain/loss, the win rate itself does not have a lot of meaning.

    Don't get me wrong 48% is fine as long as your cumulative net profit vs loss is skewed in your favor.

    With just a 60% up/down prediction rate you still don't have tradeable information.
     
    #38     Oct 21, 2020
  9. 10/21 Prediction
    INTC - close lower
    AMD - close lower
    FB- close lower
    MSFT- close lower
     
    #39     Oct 21, 2020
  10. deaddog

    deaddog

    I ran some numbers for you that make more sense than a win loss ratio.

    I started with 10K, 2500 for each stock.

    If the prediction was for a lower close the next day I sold short.

    If the prediction was for a higher close I bought.

    I closed and reversed a position when the prediction changed. (So for AMD I sold at the close on Oct 9 , Reversed my position on Oct 15 and Oct 21 and am now short.)

    I didn't use stops or profit targets. It kind of looks like if I did the loss would have been greater.

    As it turned out if you cashed in tonight you would be down 2.26%.

    If you had just bought and held SPY you would only be down 1.19%
     
    #40     Oct 21, 2020