Daily Free F/X Trade Setups

Discussion in 'Forex' started by ShadowTrader_08, Feb 19, 2009.

  1. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to work its way higher so we are maintaining our top count calling for the continuation of wave (iii) higher. The dollar made a new high hitting 89.71 and respecting the trend line that we've drawn off the 2/23 low. So until the trend line is broke we will expect the index to work its way higher towards our target of 90+.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090304USD.GIF">

    Tuesday, we were stopped out of our <b>EUR/USD</b> short setup at 1.2600 for a 79 pip gain. The pair has continued to move down towards our target of 1.2400 hitting an intra-day low of 1.2454. The pair should have one more probe lower towards 1.2400 to complete wave (v) of wave iii down. Thereafter, we should see a rise back to the 1.2600 level to complete a wave iv of the larger wave (iii) down. We will look to short the pair at the completion of the wave iv correction higher. So we are still looking for lower levels over the next few days. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090304EUR.GIF">

    Yesterday, we were looking for the <b>USD/CAD</b> to pull back in some form of a correction towards the 38.2% fibo or 1.2729. The pair made it as low as 1.2801 or the 23.6% fibo before bouncing and starting what looks to be wave (v) higher. We don't have a high confidence view of the rally off the wave (iv) low because of its choppy overlapping form which is more indicative of a correction rather than an impulsive (five wave) move higher (although it could be a diagonal). So we are hesitant to call the all clear on the rally. If our top count is correct and the pair is in a wave (v) higher, the upside is likely limited to the 1.3000-1.3100 range because so far the move higher since the wave (iv) low is shaping up to look like a diagonal which limits the upside potential. So our best bet is to wait for the completion of wave (v) in the 1.3000+ range and short the correction back down to the 1.2800 level. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090304CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> pushed higher to the 50% fibo of the wave .ii high to complete wave .iv. The pair since then has chopped sideways to down. The next move should be a thrust lower towards the 1.3900 level. If we see the setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090303GBP.GIF">

    Today, we are going to include the <b>AUD/USD</b> in our analysis. The pair has been following a predictable wave pattern for the past few weeks and is sporting a pretty good short setup at this time. So far the pair has been exhibiting wave 1's and 2's and we should be at the beginning stages of a wave .iii decline. The setup is pretty tight meaning that our stop is not far away from our entry and the downside provides a good risk reward ratio. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 0.6330, stop at 0.6375 and a target at 0.6150.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090304AUD.GIF">
     
    #11     Mar 3, 2009
  2. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index finally broke out of the uptrend that it was in. We are sticking with our two possible top counts. One, that we are in a five wave diagonal that will work its way sideways to up to complete five waves of wave 5 higher, wherein the index is in a wave (iv) decline. Our alternate count would have us in a wave c of an a-b-c correction. What is the deciding factor here? The "wave (ii) or a" low. If the dollar declines without breaking that level then we will stick with count one wherein the bottom of the next decline is the wave (iv) low. If the dollar falls below the "wave (ii) or a" low then we have to assume that we are in a wave c correction of an expanded wave (ii). The 86.05 low is the determining factor...if it holds then its a wave (iv) of a diagonal...if it's broken then it's wave c of an a-b-c correction. Either way expect lower levels for the dollar. For you stock traders notice how the dollar falls and the market rises. For you gold bugs notice how the dollar falls and gold fell???

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090305USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>EUR/USD</b> looks to have completed its wave iii down at Tuesday's 1.2454 low. What we were looking for next was "Thereafter, we should see a rise back to the 1.2600 level to complete a wave iv of the larger wave (iii) down." The pair spent most of Wednesday working its way back above the 1.2600 level hitting a high of 1.2664. This move higher should be only wave a of an a-b-c correction. The next move should be a wave b retracement lower of the wave a rise. Placing a fibo on the rise, we are targeting the 1.2583 (38.2% fibo) level or the 1.2534 (61.8% fibo) level for the bottom of the wave b decline, thereafter wave c should take us to the 1.2750-1.2800 level. We will consider going long this pair once we see that wave b down is complete. If we see a high probability setup we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090305EUR.GIF">

    Yesterday, regarding the <b>USD/CAD</b> we finally got the correction down towards the 38.2% fibo or 1.2729 that we were looking for on Monday. The wave c correction looks to be over so we are looking to long this pair for the ride back up to the 1.3100 level. Our <i>Long Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2875, stop at 1.2775 and target at 1.3200.
    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090305CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> pushed higher to the 38.2% fibo retracement of the wave (iii) decline. Wave (iv) has completed a three wave a-b-c correction and has hit a significant fibo level, so we are expecting a the pair to turn down from current levels. However, the analysis on the dollar (weakening) has holding off from pulling the short trigger. We will allow more of the pattern to develop before we call the all clear to short this pair. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090305GBP.GIF">

    Our trade on the <b>AUD/USD</b> was stopped out at 0.6375 for a 45 pip loss. If our count is correct the pair should be working its way lower as long as the wave (ii) high of 0.6521 is not breached. For now we will just keep an eye on this pair.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090305AUD.GIF">
     
    #12     Mar 4, 2009
  3. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Friday, we were expecting the Dollar to "move appreciably lower in either a wave (iv) decline or a wave c move to below the most recent low of 85.81." The U.S. Dollar Index worked its way lower falling below the 38.2% fibo retracement of the wave (iii) rise, because of the overlapping form that the pattern has taken thus far we would consider this a wave (iv) correction. This action could be all of the wave (iv) down that we were looking for having retrace to the 38.2% fibo. We are not certain of this count yet, so we will hold off on a bullish call until we push above the 89.71 level, below 88.90 will have us looking for much lower levels (85.00) over the near term. Cautiously bullish.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090309USD.GIF">

    Friday, we were looking for the <b>EUR/USD</b> to work its way higher, "if wave c higher is still in progress then we are targeting the 1.2679 level as our target for the end of wave c." The pair exceeded our upside target for wave c high of 1.2754 before reversing lower. The movement off the high has been choppy and overlapping which indicates more of a correction than an impulsive (five wave) change of direction. For now we will stick with our top count calling for lower levels for this pair. The first indication of the resumption of the downtrend will be a push below the 1.2600 level. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090309EUR.GIF">

    The <b>USD/CAD</b> pushed below our 1.2775 level of support briefly on Friday hitting 1.2760 before pushing higher. Our outlook is still calling for the pair to push above the most recent high of 1.2976 towards the 1.3100 level. A push above 1.2900 will be the first indication of the return of the up trend and above 1.2954 the confirmation. Our <i>Long Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2901, stop at 1.2830 and a 1.3100.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090309CAD.GIF">

    The <b>GBP/USD</b> hit our stop at 1.4165 on Sunday evening for a 100 pip loss. The pattern is still indicating lower levels to come. For now we will wait to see where this likely wave ii rise exhausts itself before we take another shot at shorting this pair. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090309GBP.GIF">
     
    #13     Mar 8, 2009
  4. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar moved lower as we were anticipating. The decline was in five waves which can be counted as wave C or merely a wave i of C down. If that is the case then the rally off of the low is a wave ii and a wave iii will be confirmed underway with a move below 87.90. If the dollar surpasses the wave B high then we will have to count the correction lower complete and wave (v) up will be confirmed underway. We will let more of the pattern develop to determine the dollars next move.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090311USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>EUR/USD</b> worked higher pushing above our target hurdle of 1.2755, hitting a high for the day at 1.2722 before reversing lower. We have adjusted the labels to better reflect the pairs recent movement. We are calling for a continued wave iii of C rise to above the wave A high (1.2987) to complete the a-b-c correction. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090311EUR.GIF">

    Tuesday, we said regarding the <b>USD/CAD</b> that, "As long as the wave i high of 1.2912 is not breached we expect higher levels." Well the pair fell sharply in five waves indicating a change of direction, therefore, we are counting Monday's high of 1.3064 as the wave (v) high. We are counting the rally off the low as a wave a and expecting the pair to pull back in a wave b then a wave c higher towards the prior wave iv extreme (1.2926). If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090311CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our setup of the <b>GBP/USD</b> was triggered at 1.3780 and stopped out overnight at break even. The pair went on to hit our original wave iv target of 1.3900, hitting a high of 1.3907 before declining in wave v. Wave v may have more work to do on the downside. Wave v would be equal in length to wave i at 1.3631. We will look to go long this pair once a low in this area has been reached. If we see a high probability setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090311GBP.GIF">
     
    #14     Mar 10, 2009
  5. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar pushed below the wave i low of 87.90 indicating the onset of a wave 3 down of wave C. Our target for the completion of wave C down is the apex of the prior wave 4 at 85.00. This is now our top count. So we continue to look for more dollar weakness.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090312USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the <b>EUR/USD</b> worked higher pushing above the wave i high of 1.2822. The pair should likely pull back to the 1.2763 level before thrusting higher towards our wave C target range of 1.3100-1.3200 level. We will look to long the pair on a move above yesterdays high of 1.2864. Our <i>Long Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2865, stop at 1.2775 and target of 1.3200.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090312EUR.GIF">

    Wednesday, we said regarding the <b>USD/CAD</b> that, "We are counting the rally off the low as a wave a and expecting the pair to pull back in a wave b then a wave c higher towards the prior wave iv extreme (1.2926)." The wave c higher made it to the 1.2903 level but then reversed lower. This move is sufficient to complete wave c and the a-b-c correction. The next move should be down towards the 1.2500 level. A break below 1.2813 will be the first indication of the resumption of the down trend and below 1.2747 the confirmation. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2812, stop at 1.2900 and a target at 1.2550.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090312CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we were waiting for the <b>GBP/USD</b> to complete a wave v down towards the 1.3631 level, then rally off of that low. Well the pair thrust lower to complete wave v, hitting 1.3652 before reversing higher. The pair managed to correct higher back to the area of the prior wave iv, which is a common target for corrections. The next move of consequence should be lower. A break below 1.3824 will be the first indication of the resumption of the downtrend and below 1.3719 the confirmation. We know this is moving counter to the other pairs but this is what the top count is calling for so we have to go with it. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.3823, stop at 1.3915 and a target at 1.3500.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090312GBP.GIF">
     
    #15     Mar 11, 2009
  6. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar continued to move sideways to down overlapping repeatedly in what we can conclude is some form of diagonal or subwave 1's and 2's. For now we'll stick with the 1-2 counts and look for the dollar to continue lower towards our downside target of 85.00.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090313USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, the long setup for the <b>EUR/USD</b> was triggered and was stopped out for a 90 pip loss. The pair chopped sideways knocking us out of the trade before pushing to higher levels. We are still anticipating that the pair will work its way higher towards our 1.3200 target to complete wave C. If we see a high probability trade setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090313EUR.GIF">

    Wednesday, our short setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was triggered at 1.2812. Intra-day we moved the stop down to the 1.2860 level which is just above what we are labeling a wave i. Currently, the pair looks to be in a wave iv correction higher that if our count is correct should not reach up to the wave i low of 1.2842. So we continue to anticipate that this pair will work its way lower towards our target of 1.2550.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090313CAD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our short setup on the <b>GBP/USD</b> was triggered at 1.3823. Intra-day we moved our stop down to 1.3775 and it was subsequently hit leaving us with 48 pip gain. We have adjusted the labels on this pair to better reflect recent price action. We are anticipating further movement to the downside for this pair but we need to see a move below the 1.3840 level to support our bearish view. If we see a high probability trade setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090313GBP.GIF">
     
    #16     Mar 12, 2009
  7. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Friday, the U.S. Dollar continued to chop sideways making no net progress. Sunday evening we have the dollar attempting to break to the upside. We will need to see the index get above the 89.10 and the 89.71 level before we call it a day for the bearish outlook of wave (c) down. If the dollar gets above these levels, we will be forced to switch back to our original count that this latest movement was in fact a wave iv of a diagonal with a wave v higher to come. With the pairs below sporting a stronger dollar outlook, we have to push the odds to a stronger dollar. A push below the 87.50 level will raise our confidence in the wave (c) down scenario.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090316USD.GIF">

    Friday, the <b>EUR/USD</b> chopped sideways in what looks to be part of a diagonal to continue in a wave C higher. The pattern would will need one more thrust higher to complete wave C, thereafter, we expect lower levels for this pair. We will look for opportunities to short this pair once it has moved into the 1.3000-1.3100 level completing wave C. If we see a high probability trade setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090316EUR.GIF">

    Our short setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was stopped out on Friday when it hit our adjusted stop of 1.2700, leaving us with a 112 pip gain. The pair declined and bounced off the 61.8% fibo, so far the pair has moved up in five waves and corrected lower in three (five minute chart not shown) indicating that the trend has changed from down to up. As long as the 1.2620 level remains intact, we will look for this pair to work its way higher towards the 1.3200 level. We are counting the latest rise as a wave i and the decline as a wave ii. A push above the 1.2800 level will be our first indication of the resumption of the uptrend and above 1.2844 the confirmation. Our <i>Long Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2800, stop at 1.2720 and a target at 1.3200.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090316CAD.GIF">

    Friday, the <b>GBP/USD</b> hit a high of 1.4071 and popped above the 61.8% fibo before reversing lower. We are count the correction higher complete and looking for the resumption of the downtrend. A break below the 1.3908 will be the first indication of the continuation lower and below 1.3861 the confirmation. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.3908, stop at 1.4008 and a target at 1.3500.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090316GBP.GIF">
     
    #17     Mar 15, 2009
  8. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Monday, the U.S. Dollar finally broke lower exceeding the 61.8% fibo and reversing higher. We're not clear on the labeling of the index but the choppy overlapping movement is still indicating some form of a correction lower which means the trend is still to the downside. The spike to the 86.91 level may have completed wave C down, we will need to see a five wave move off the low to confirm that it has made a turn up. Look for a move above 88.25 to signal that the uptrend has resumed.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090317USD.GIF">

    Monday, we said regarding the <b>EUR/USD</b> that, "the pattern will need one more thrust higher to complete wave C, thereafter, we expect lower levels for this pair." Well we got the thrust higher into our target zone of 1.3000-1.3100 to complete wave c of C. We need to see the pair decline in five waves to confirm that the trend has changed to the downside. So far there has only been three overlapping waves which doesn't yet support our bearish view. So we will allow more of the pattern to develop before we call the all clear for the next leg down. If we see a high probability trade setup, we will report it here or in an email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090317EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was not triggered on Monday as the pair retraced lower to complete what we're labeling a wave ii. We are adjusting our setup to take advantage of the pairs recent activity. If our count is correct the wave ii low should not be breached, so we are moving our long trigger lower and placing our stop below the wave ii low. Our <i>Long Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.2740, stop at 1.2628 and a target at 1.3200.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090317CAD.GIF">

    Monday our short setup on the <b>GBP/USD</b> was not triggered as the U.S. Dollar declined. We are adjusting our short setup on this pair as we view the recent push higher as the completion of the correction higher. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.4049, stop at 1.4150 and a target at 1.3500.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090317GBP.GIF">
     
    #18     Mar 16, 2009
  9. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar started working its way higher off of Monday's low of 86.91. The index has not pushed above our pivot point of 88.25, so we're still waiting for that bullish confirmation. A push below 86.91 will turn us neutral the index. So we remain cautiously bullish.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090318USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, we said regarding the <b>EUR/USD</b> that, "We need to see the pair decline in five waves to confirm that the trend has changed to the downside." We have labeled the move off the high as a wave i down and an a-b-c correction for wave ii higher. We are expecting lower levels as long as the wave C high of 1.3071 remains intact. Our <i>Short Idea</i> has a trigger at 1.3020, stop at 1.3072 and a target at 1.2400.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090318EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was triggered on Tuesday, putting us long the pair at 1.2740. The pair pushed through that level and has been chopping around lower as the dollar has pulled back. We are maintaining our stop at 1.2628, with the expectation that the wave ii low will remain intact as we begin wave iii higher.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090318CAD.GIF">

    Tuesday, our short setup on the <b>GBP/USD</b> was triggered putting us short the pair at 1.4049. The rise off the low is clearly choppy and overlapping indicating a correction higher, so we will continue to expect lower levels for this pair. We will maintain our stop at 1.4150 for now and our target remains at 1.3500.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090318GBP.GIF">
     
    #19     Mar 17, 2009
  10. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily F/X setups and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month

    <h1>Dollars & Sense</h1><br>
    Good Morning, Traders!!! And Welcome to <strong>ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader. </strong> Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar broke below the 86.91 level that we said would turn us neutral the dollar. This move has forced us to switch back to our alternate count that targeted 85.00 (prior wave 4 area) as the retracement level for this wave C move. With that level reached, we will now look for a five wave move higher to confirm that the wave C bottom is in and the trend has in fact changed to up. So we remain neutral as we await a five wave move off the recent low of 84.36.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090319USD.GIF">

    Yesterday, our short setup on the <b>EUR/USD</b> was triggered at 1.3020 and was subsequently stopped out at 1.3072 for a 52 pip loss as the pair spiked higher on Fed Reserve news that they look to rapidly devalue the dollar. This sent the pair higher beyond our original target zone of 1.3200-1.3300. Yesterday's spike higher was likely a wave 3 of that wave C higher. What is due next is some form of an a-b-c correction lower targeting the 1.3326-1.3364 area, thereafter, we may see one more push higher to complete the pattern. The only thing that would change our view is if the pair were to decline in five waves and correct higher in three...this would confirm that a top was in and the downtrend was ready to resume. We will allow more of the pattern to develop before we give a more definitive assessment. If we see a high probability setup, we will alert you here or in an intra-day email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090319EUR.GIF">

    Our long setup on the <b>USD/CAD</b> was stopped out on Wednesday for a 112 pip loss. The pair spiked lower on the Fed's announcement. The pair may have one more up-down move to complete this final wave (c) low. We are ultimately looking for a bottom in this current range but we will allow more of the pattern to play out before we determine our next course of action. If we see a high probability setup, we will alert you here or in an intra-day email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090319CAD.GIF">

    Wednesday, our short setup on the <b>GBP/USD</b> was up over 200 pips before it was stopped out at 1.4150 for a 101 pip loss. While the spike higher was not anticipated this was one of those trades where better money management would have been beneficial versus maintaining a high degree of confidence in the patterns outlook. This is where sticking with our guideline of once a trade is up over 100 pips moving the stop to break even or locking in 50 pips would have been well rewarded. Regarding the pair, we are counting the rise off the intra-day low as a wave (c) that should be nearing an end with one more down-up sequence combined with stochastic divergence to confirm the wave (c) high is complete. If we see a high probability setup, we will alert you here or in an intra-day email alert.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090319GBP.GIF">
     
    #20     Mar 18, 2009