Highlights going into Thursday, 24 May- Volatility has increased substantially. All 8 of the major currencies exceeded 100% of the normalized typical range (see image). Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $USDCAD Negative - $USDCAD Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - $NZDCHF The structure has turned negative for $AUDCHF $AUDJPY $USDJPY The image with this post highlights the daily range as a percentage of the normalized typical range for the 8 major currencies. Values shaded in blue exceed 1 standard deviation above typical range. Values shaded in orange exceed 1 standard deviation below typical range. Values highlighted in yellow exceed 2 standard deviations above or below typical range. Bold black values are highest or lowest of at least 20 days. Underlined values are lower than prior day. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Friday, 25 May- Volatility has generally remained elevated and is not likely to persist. However, price ranges have compressed significantly for $EURUSd and $NZDUSD and are anticipated to increase relatively soon. Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $AUDCAD Negative - $CADCHF, $CADJPY, $CHFJPY, $USDJPY Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none The structure has turned negative for $CADJPY, $CHFJPY, $EURJPY $NZDJPY The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks (See JPY). Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Tuesday, 29 May- Volatility and directional movement are likely to increase for $AUDUSD and $EURGBP Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $NZDCAD Negative - none Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none Price structure has turned negative for $CADCHF and positive for $EURCAD, $NZDCAD, and $USDCAD The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Wednesday, 30 May- Volatility continues to surge in the FX markets. Last week we mentioned JPY was notably gaining strength the short-term momentum rank shifted (See image). Short-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - $AUDCHF, $AUDUSD Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - $EURCHF, $GBPCHF Price structure has turned negative for $AUDNZD, $AUDUSD, and $EURGBP. The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks (see JPY). Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Thursday, 31 May- Volatility continues to impress after months of continued decline in the FX markets. Last week we mentioned JPY was notably gaining strength the short-term momentum rank shifted. Today we note that USD has shifted significantly from strength to weakness (See image). Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $EURGBP Negative - $USDCHF Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks (see USD). Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Friday, 1 June- Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD Negative - none Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - $EURNZD, $GBPNZD Structure changes: Positive - $AUDUSD, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $NZDCHF, $NZDUSD Negative - none The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Monday, 4 June- Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $CHFJPY, $GBPCAD, $NZDJPY, $USDJPY, Negative - JPY Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none Structure changes: Positive - $AUDJPY, $CHFJPY, $EURCHF, $EURJPY, $NZDCHF, $NZDJPY Negative - none The image with this post is a 30-day correlation matrix. Several pairs have recently been highly correlated and inversely correlated e.g. $USDJPY as seen in the image. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Tuesday, 5 June- Previously, we noted the negative shift in JPY and coinciding structure changes for multiple pairs, which consequently experienced excellent follow-through. Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $AUDCHF, $CADJPY, $EURJPY, $NZDCHF Negative - none Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none Structure changes: Positive - $GBPJPY, $USDJPY Negative - none Price ranges have compressed significantly for $CADCHF, $CADJPY, $EURCHF, $EURCAD, and $USDCAD and are anticipated to increase relatively soon. The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks.
Highlights going into Wednesday, 6 June- Recent highlights have noted anticipated range breakouts. Consequently, nearly all of these have exceed their typical ranges by 100% or more as volatility cycles from low to high. See the image with this post for a visual representation. Of note - EUR, JPY and CHF are all anticipated to breakout relatively soon. Additionally, there are no structure changes for today. However, many changes occurred together as noted in prior updates and are continuing in the same direction. Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $GBPJPY, $EURCHF Negative - none Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none Structure changes: Positive - none Negative - none The image with this post highlights the daily range as a percentage of the normalized typical range for the 8 major currencies. Values shaded in blue exceed 1 standard deviation above typical range. Values shaded in orange exceed 1 standard deviation below typical range. Values highlighted in yellow exceed 2 standard deviations above or below typical range. Bold black values are highest or lowest of at least 20 days. Underlined values are lower than prior day. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Thursday, 7 June- Short-term momentum changes: Positive - $EURCHF $EURUSD $GBPCHF Negative - none Long-term momentum changes: Positive - none Negative - none Structure changes: Positive - $GBPCHF Negative - none Price ranges have compressed significantly for $GBPUSD and $USDCHF and are anticipated to increase relatively soon. The image with this post ranks short-term momentum for the majors. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks. Make it a great day!