Weekly highlights going into Monday, 30 April- Weekly price range compression for $AUDJPY $CADCHF $CADJPY $NZDJPY reached significant levels and are likely to rebound. This can be seen with the image included with this post. The image shows normalized adjusted price ranges as a percentage relative to typical ranges - -Values shaded in blue exceed one standard deviation above typical range. -Values shaded in orange exceed 1standard deviation below typical range -Values highlighted in yellow exceed 2 standard deviations above or below typical range -Bold black values are highest or lowest of 20 weeks. Breakout confirmation utilizing tactical trading tools is suggested for these actionable trades. Have a great week!
Highlights going into Tuesday, 1 May- Short-term momentum leaders and laggards have changed little since late last week (see the heatmap of the majors included with this post.) Long-term momentum has switched to the downside for $GBPUSD. Structure changes have potentially changed for the following: Bullish- $EURGBP Bearish- $GBPCAD $GBPCHF $GBPJPY Range expansions and breakouts are at elevated levels for: $EURCHF $NZDJPY $NZDUSD $$AUDJPY $CADJPY The top three short-term momentum primary pairs/crosses are: 1. $CADCHF 2. $USDCHF 3. $USDJPY The bottom three are: 26. $AUDUSD 27. $NZDUSD 28. $AUDCAD The image with this post is the short-term momentum heatmap for the 8 major currencies ranked highest (1) to lowest (8). Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Wednesday, 2 May- Yesterday's structure bias changes of Bullish- $EURGBP and Bearish- $GBPCAD $GBPCHF $GBPJPY along with the long-term bearish momentum shift for $GBPUSD was spot on! Range expansions and breakout are increasingly likely for: $EURAUD $EURNZD $NZDCHF $CHFJPY Short-term momentum has continued to follow-through with some pairs/crosses now at extreme levels. The image with this post is the short-term momentum heatmap for the 28 primary pairs and crosses. It is ranked and sorted from highest (1) to lowest (28). Please feel free to ask if you have any questions. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Thursday, 3 May- The currency market has generally followed through with momentum and structure. As such, there are no new bias changes. However, short-term momentum does reflect some pairs/crosses at extreme levels. Range expansions and breakout are increasingly likely for: $CADCHF $GBPCHF $EURCHF $USDJPY $NZDJPY The image with this post is a short-term/ long-term momentum rank for the top 5 and bottom 5 of the 28 primary pairs we follow. We utilize a statistically-based method of calculating momentum that is robust enough to adapt to fast or slow moving markets, while being normalized so the outputs can be directly comparable and sorted from one pair/cross to another. The current rank (Thursday) is flanked by yesterday's "Prior Rank" (Wednesday) to illustrate shift in strength or weakness. A value of "1" reflects the strongest (bullish) and a ranking of "28" reflects the weakest (bearish) momentum. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Friday, 4 May- Several of the pairs that we have been anticipating big price ranges for have done so. $EURJPY and $CHFJPY experienced daily price ranges exceeding 2 standard deviations of their typical ranges at 169% and 166% respectively. While not as extreme, $GBPJPY and $USDJPY also experienced ranges significantly beyond what is typical. Additionally, JPY exceeded 2 standard deviations at 145%. However, $GBPCHF coiled tightly and is likely to expand soon. $EURNZD switching to bearish is the sole possible structure change. The image with this post is a short-term/ long-term momentum rank for the top 5 and bottom 5 of the 28 primary pairs we follow. We utilize a statistically-based method of calculating momentum that is robust enough to adapt to fast or slow moving markets, while being normalized so the outputs can be directly comparable and sorted from one pair/cross to another. The current rank (Thursday) is flanked by yesterday's "Prior Rank" (Wednesday) to illustrate shift in strength or weakness. A value of "1" reflects the strongest (bullish) and a ranking of "28" reflects the weakest (bearish) momentum. Values highlighted in blue indicate a top 5 ranking while values in orange highlight a bottom 5 ranking yesterday. Make it a great day!
There has been a lot of interest about our momentum statistics, what they mean, and how to use them. The normalized statistically-based momentum we calculate has a tendency to persist after a change in direction. We monitor and publish two time frames for momentum on the daily dashboard reports. The short-term statistic typically means 2-7 days and 2-7 weeks for long-term momentum. Knowing when momentum changes direction or is rapidly changing rank can give you a leading edge in the markets. Going into Friday, we extracted and shared the top and bottom 5 currency pairs/crosses. The image with this post illustrates the results of such "persistence". Have a great weekend!
Weekly highlights going into Monday, 7 May- Weekly price range compression for $EURCHF and $USDCAD have reached significant levels and are likely to rebound. Additionally, the odds have increased for $AUDJPY and $AUDUSD to experience a directional breakout. Breakout confirmation utilizing Andersen Bands and other tactical trading tools are suggested for these actionable trades. Volatility generally remains considerably weak in the currency market. This can be seen in the image included with this post. The image shows a one year volatility trend chart for each pair/cross. The directional arrow indicates the one week change in volatility. The remaining columns show the relative rank in percentage of where the current 5 week, 10 week, 30 week, and 120 week measurements of volatility are compared to the past. A reading of zero means volatility is at the bottom of the range. Conversely, a reading of 100 would be at the top. Have a great week ahead!
Daily Highlights going into Monday, 7 May- Some of the daily price ranges that are compressed and likely to expand soon are: $EURGBP $EURCHF $NZDUSD and 3-day $GBPCHF $CADJPY and $USDJPY are likely candidates for bearish structure changes. The image with this post is a short-term momentum ranking of all 28 primary pairs/crosses that we follow. We utilize a statistically-based method of calculating momentum that is robust and adapts to fast or slow moving markets. Additionally, it is normalized so the outputs of one currency pair/cross can be directly comparable and sorted across all others. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "28" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness along with individual and intra-market trends and patterns.
Highlights going into Tuesday, 8 May- Some of the daily price ranges that are compressed and likely to expand soon are: $GBPNZD $GBPUSD $AUDUSD. $USDCHF is at an extreme momentum high and suggest tightening stops for an imminent reaction lower. The market on Monday mostly experienced consolidation as there were no pivot gaps. $NZDCHF is may be shifting to a bullish structure. Momentum continues to define the market. The image with this post shows short-term momentum rankings for the 8 major currencies that we follow. We utilize a statistically-based method of calculating momentum that is robust and adapts to fast or slow moving markets. Additionally, it is normalized so the outputs of one currency can be directly comparable and ranked across the others. The strongest momentum is ranked "1" in dark green and "8" is the weakest or most negative. This gives you a visual representation of strength and weakness to construct trades with corresponding pairs and crosses that represent buying strength and selling weakness. The most opportunistic trades tend to be when there is a shift in trend moving toward the top or bottom of the momentum ranks. Make it a great day!
Highlights going into Wednesday, 9 May- Price volatility has swung the other direction and increased significantly on Tuesday, validating what we have pointed out about several pairs that have been significantly compressed. Additionally, $GBPCAD may be shifting to a bullish structure. The image with this post highlights the daily range as a percentage of the normalized typical range for the 8 major currencies. Values shaded in blue exceed one standard deviation above typical range. Values shaded in orange exceed one standard deviation below typical range. Values highlighted in yellow exceed 2 standard deviations above or below typical range. Bold black values are highest or lowest of at least 20 days. Underlined values are lower than prior day.