It's currently at 1.3481, I'm still looking to overall short but may wait a little longer to get in. I think we may see 1.34 before the end of the week
down 10 pips already to 1.3471....any thoughts on where you think we will hit some resistance on the downside?
I think the answer to your question depends on the time frame your trading. For me - the most significant resistance is 1.29 and change ( < .50). But that is quite a few weeks out yet , IMO.
Do you think that this current pullback will take us down that far, though? I'm expecting - provided that the longer-term uptrend is still in effect - that the current pullback will take us to the major trendline, and then resume the uptrend. Probably the highest that might happen is around 1.337, while the lower limit looks like maybe around 1.325. Are you thinking that the long-term uptrend is over, or are you just looking for a deeper pullback?
I'm thinking the longer term uptrend is over. I am enclosing the monthly chart - as you can see we failed to proceed north , creating a double top from 2005
I agree we will see 1.29 later this year but over the next few weeks I'm not sure it's going to happen yet. I agree that 1.3370 is realistic and then we will see some form of correction. The thing I'm not sure about it whether the correction will take us to higher highs or back down...
Good point; technically, we did fail the old high, what could be a double-top is forming. The economic forces at work, though, make it hard for me to believe a long-term dollar rally against the euro. But then again, if we're talking economic forces, we're talking very long-term. I guess it is not at all unlikely that the uptrend line will break. We'll just have to see; I'm ready for either. If the uptrend breaks; even better for us; we'll make money shorting the euro AND we'll make money from our dollars strengthening. Longer-term, though, I just don't see the powers that be supporting the dollar in the upcoming years.