Had some good trades this week. I think I'll be trading the eur/usd long some more in the future, but I'm waiting for a bigger pullback, and I think one is due. Following this market around the world has been exhausting, but well worth it.
The market was volatile on Friday and chopped around the 3619 level. Price closed above the River level of 3549 so short trades continue to be aggressive. We want to err on the side of the current trend and look for longs. Long Strategy Traders can establish new longs on an hourly close above 3685. Risk is an hourly close below 3649. Target is 3751. Exit here. Should the market move down strongly, traders can set longs on a move through River at 3549.Risk is an hourly close below 3549. Target is 3619. Exit here. Short Strategy (Higher Risk) Traders can set new shorts if we get an hourly close below 3619. Look to set shorts on a push back up to 3619. Risk is an hourly close above 3631. Target is River at 3549. Cover here.
I changed my mind. Took a short position at 1.3662. COT data shows extreme Euro longs and almost extreme USD shorts...Set a stop at 1.3715. Figure if it hits 15 pips past 1.3700 we can still see some more movement to the upside, possibly up to 1.4000. At this point, I think that it less likely than a slight decline.
WRONG! The market gave us the short set up today, but the 3619 level did not hold as we built value on both sides. The market closed above the River level of 3548 so short trades continue to be aggressive. Long Strategy Traders can establish new longs on an hourly close above 3663. Risk is an hourly close below 3640. Target is 3751. Exit here. Short Strategy (Higher Risk) Traders can set new shorts if we get an hourly close below 3619. Look to set shorts on a push back up to 3619. Risk is an hourly close above 3619. Target is River at 3548. Cover here.
Its just a name I give to my methodology. These lines represent supply/demand levels that I identify. The River Levels are dynamic in that they change every hour. I reset them each day on the analysis. Nothing fancy or anything, just follow along with them and see what you think.