Daily Economic Thread (for Ricter)

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Tsing Tao, May 17, 2011.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    i figured i'd save ricter some time with his boohoo.

    The Quadruple Dip: Housing Starts, Permits Drop, Miss Expectations; Houses Under Construction At New Record Low

    Since the triple dip in housing was recently circumvented courtesy of QE2, and was "transitory" in theory today's subpar housing starts and permits data is the beginning of the quadruple dip. And subpar it was: starts came at 523K on expectations of 569K, down from revised 585K previously. Permits were also ugly, missing expectations by a comparable account, printing at 551K, with consensus of 590K(and the previous revised this time lower from 594K to 574K). In starts, annualized single-family units dropped from 415k to 394k, with declines in Northeast and South, and increases in the Midwest and West. The actual, non-annualized number of starts was 46.8k, with 36.2k in single family units. Completions increased modestly from 532k to 554k. And the most interesting number was the number of houses under construction, which hit a fresh all time low on an annual, seasonally adjusted basis, or 418k. At this point it is probably passe to bring up the Cramer clip calling the housing bottom back in 2008.

  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Industrial Production Weakens, Misses Consensus, As Capacity Utilization Peaks

    And another contractionary economic data point: Industrial production in April was unchanged M/M on expectations of a 0.4% increase, and following a downward revision to March's 0.7%. Additionally, capacity utilization dropped to 76.9% from 77.4%, and substantially less than the expected 77.6%. And there is your "slack in the economy" redflag that the Fed loves so much, and which traditionally is one of the key variables in determining future monetary loosening. Also, as the chart below shows, we may have well peaked in the recent capacity utilization cycle. As for specific industry groups, there was more weakness than the headline indicates: "The production of consumer goods decreased 0.7 percent in April because of weakness in the output of consumer durable goods. The index for business equipment fell 0.4 percent in April following a loss of 0.5 percent in March. The production index for defense and space equipment was unchanged in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in the previous month. Among nonindustrial supplies, the output of construction supplies declined 0.1 percent in April. The output of materials to be processed further in the industrial sector rose 0.3 percent in April after increasing 0.9 percent in March." The Japan effect is starting be felt.

  3. Ricter


    With my phony boohoo, you mean. We both know it's sarcastic. Meanwhile, this thread is celebratory, "dire" economic news is good, it means Obama may not be reelected, which is the most important thing for many here.
  4. Watch the film "Inside Job" narrated by Matt Damon, your library probably has it. It brings home what we've been reading about now for years. The wheels are off the cart and you have to be thankful for what you've managed to have right now. Organized crime has evolved to become institutionalized crime.
  5. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    You are completely incorrect.

    If someone came to me and said "you can have a healthy economy, but Obama will be President", the only thing I would want to know is where to sign up.

    This is about the economy - and my #1 enemy is the Fed. The only issue I have with Obama in regards to the economy is that he promised "Hope and Change" and then re-appointed the same criminals. And now we're reaping the benefit.

    The reason I post negative data is because it's accurate in it's depiction of the economy. You, however, post blips of data spun to create a picture that is nothing more than a facade.
  6. You SHOULD have another enemy... perhaps even greater than the Fed... Odumbo's deficit budget. For that alone, he should go on trial for treason.

    Odumbo campaigned on certain things but has advocated "others"... He will go down in history as one of the 2 worst presidents in American history... and no, Bush ain't "#1"... it's either Woodrow Wilson or Odumbo.
  7. Ricter


    About you, fair enough. Have a look at rc822's posts. He's not alone.
  8. The system is a hall of miirrors. Anyone who goes in thinking he's going to clean up Dodge-- Paul, Kucinich goes in with the best of intentions but ever since "to big to fail" everything is tied to
    finance and that wealth gets hoarded and doesn't circulate into the greater economy that might prime demand hence the cycle is unlubricated. To begin you can't get elected w/o selling out to some entrenched lobbyist saturated interests then we've got
    what amounts to Ponzi schemes in every direction now that regulation --even its intentions are in their control.
  9. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    About me, yes. As for many others, you are absolutely right.