Czech Koruna CZK intervention

Discussion in 'Forex' started by m22au, Nov 11, 2013.

  1. m22au

    m22au

    Thanks Martinghoul.

    Another interpretation could be that they only needed to buy EUR 1.8 bn because their words did the work for them. But I defer to your knowledge and expertise in this area as you probably know more about this than I do.
     
    #21     Nov 13, 2013
  2. Nobody other than the CNB board knows... Not you, not me, not some clever-sounding analyst. You could very well be right and they could be happy with the effects of their verbal intervention. The interesting question here is really what happens when the mkt decides to test them, like it did with the SNB.
     
    #22     Nov 13, 2013
  3. He knows that people know that he knows they know he is a bluffer, and that they are right. The reason he could talk with less to no worry and get the work done for him is the absence of a positive carry.
     
    #23     Nov 13, 2013
  4. Which intervention did they do? Notice the word "serious". Serious is not "will do it". Cheap talk made to look serious by adding the word "serious".
     
    #24     Nov 13, 2013
  5. Say what? This just makes no sense whatsoever...
     
    #25     Nov 13, 2013
  6. mcpetrson

    mcpetrson

    Hi all, it has been a time since CNB started with interventions. According to their announcements interventions will quit at second half (or maybe at the end) of 2016. Now the price for 1€ is about 27,020 CZK.

    It looks like a really great opportunity for short CZK right before the end of int.

    What do you think, does anybody have some experience with trading the end of interventions?
     
    #26     Jan 13, 2016
  7. doggyfx

    doggyfx

    Do you know any broker that offers USD/CZK? Can't find it in my Hotforex platform
     
    #27     Jan 15, 2016
  8. mcpetrson

    mcpetrson

    With Interactive Brokers you can trade whatever currencies you want in any possible combination.

    But I would like to prepare a plan for this nice trade.
    Any suggestions, what could happen after CNB will quit their int?

    I'm trying to set up possible situations and scenarios. Also, the question is, what could be the target price. Until now I just try to compute correlation coef. for CZK with two other Central European Currencies but there is nothing valuable:

    Correlation Coefficients from 6/2009 - 11/2013 (interventions started at 11/08/2013) are:
    EURCZK vs EURPLN: 0.47
    EURCZK vs EURHUF: 0.34
    ...not much... so we can not determine the target price with EUR from these two... (other countries like Slovakia already has EUR...)

    Except the target price, I also want to make analysis about:
    • End of interventions somewhere else - what was next?
    • How much is 1pip with 1lot
    • When to place a trade
    • What about SL
    • etc...
    Also the question is timing, and what will happen if "everybody" know about this end of Interventions, is it still opportunity for make money on it if everybody else can do the same?
     
    #28     Jan 15, 2016
  9. #29     Jan 18, 2016
  10. mcpetrson

    mcpetrson

    I'm sorry but I thought this should be thread about how to make money on czech interventions, not about brokers...
    Does anybody have any valuable idea? Or is here anybody who want to make on this and will going to analysis and prepare process with me?
     
    #30     Jan 18, 2016