Finally a proper pandemic a old fav, none of this mamy pamby Covid crap, bring out your dead hardcore! https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/chinese-city-sounds-alert-after-22306236 Ps. Havent bothered to read it!
I am not agreeing with anyone. It’s a complex issue that can’t be solved by a single policy tool. We definitely needed to lockdown the society early enough when we were not sure about the death rates, virulence or the exact bounds of the vulnerable population. Plus, we clearly were at risk of overwhelming the medical system when the first wave arrived. In fact, we might need more local lockdowns in areas where we have specific risks. On the other hand, we need to invest into other tools and limit the nuclear option to very serious situations. Contact tracing, society-wide PPE and, ultimately, isolating the vulnerable groups has to be on the menu. Finally, we should stare down a possibility that we have exhausted all reasonable courses of action and that some people will die.
As Early as March 2021 we could see federally coordinated wide spread testing for live virus with contact tracing and quarantining. The incoming administration will have a plan of attack ready to roll out on day one! We should have a vaccine by 3rd quarter of 2021 if not before.
Turveyd, you've cited this 0.1% fatality rate at least three times in this thread. You're way off base. The best estimate of the fatality rate in New York City as of May 1 is 1.4%. Here's how that was calculated: Actual recovered cases: 1,671,351 (10 times the number of confirmed cases) as of May 1. This figure is based on an antibody testing study conducted by New York State, which showed that 19.9% of NYC residents had COVID-19 antibodies. Actual deaths: 23,430 (almost twice the number of confirmed deaths) as of May 1. This figure was calculated by the CDC looking at "excess deaths" above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death. Total cases: 1,694,751 (adding the two figures above) Fatality rate: 23,430 / 1,694,751 = 0.0138 (1.4%) Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
I am afraid it will be countered with opinions half based on random incomplete/out-of-context data but always nice to see fellow ET-ers that try to work with facts and data from reasonable sources.
I disagree, we won't know the true Death rate till it's all over, but currently NYC is doing badly @0.166%, but tests / deaths is irrelevant to me. It's also increasing very slowly at this point +21 deaths so that's +0.00002% so it's not going to increase much more, and I don't expect a 2nd wave, no sign of yet in NYC because got to be close to 100% have had it. NYC is 2nd worst death rate in the world, only NJ beating it. UK is 0.07%, Sweden 0.05% no lockdowns, Italy had it first 0.06%, Spain 0.056%. CDC revised death rate to below 0.3% a while back aswell. Swedens, Test / Death rate was poor, getting slated, so they increased there testing, as you can see positive tests doubled, which improved the testing / death rate, didn't change the death rate but made people happier to continue without lockdown. Antibody tests don't work well, quite a few are getting well via T-Cels not Antibodies and they've got a T-Cel test and increased the numbers nicely, so they'll need to do both tests, to find out the true infection rate. Don't forget Lockdown itself is causing extra deaths over the average, suicides increase, fear of going into hospital for treatment mainly. If NYC wasn't pretty much everyones had it, it would be increasing like Florida, Ever state that's barely had it is shooting up, all the first hit states aren't, this isn't a coincidence, this is the peak before we'll call it Herd!! ( Spain, Italy, Sweden no lockdowns similar numbers and no 2nd wave for nearly 2 months, Italy and Spain after lockdowns removed ) watch them all start leveling off around 0.1% or 1000/Mil on Worldometers.
You just want FEAR and seem incapable of Basic logic, D08 couldn't answer a simple logic question and proved his opinion is irrelevant just like yours. Same Lazy Element 90% agrees with me, but I see your liking his posts LOL don't understand what he's writing do you LOL
Good to hear the CDC is wisely looking at excess deaths, which is the best metric. Personally I'm trading market drops like today by trading inverses like UVXY TZA etc. I'm very fcking worried about the pandemic and riots. No cure for either. Things are going to hell, soon.
Excess deaths, are Deaths the Lockdown are causing not the Virus, every death is being tested for Covid, Lockdown has a cost, can't lock 325Mil people in there houses and scare them to death without expecting extra deaths.
The lockdown worked both ways. Traffic fatalities went way down, for example. Ok, if you ignore the antibody tests and assume that every single NYC resident was infected – which is overoptimistic and unlikely, but I'll play along with you – that gives us a fatality rate of 0.276% (as of today 23,181 deaths in a population of 8,398,748). Not the 0.166% you cited. (Edited) Note: The 0.276% is using the current official death toll as of July 7 and assuming 100% infection rate. The 1.4% was calculated using the CDC's excess deaths figure as of May 1 and assuming a 19.9% infection rate. Apples and oranges. I trust the 1.4% figure better.