As days turn into weeks... and into months... and soon into years... I believe that the market is not even remotely close to properly pricing in the CV fallout: 1. In the USA, wave I is still going on; wave II will hit in the fall and winter of this year. II. Swine flu and others are being found. When cold weather hits, we're all going back to lockdown. III. The trillions pumped into the economy will weaken the dollar, cause inflation, deflation, or stagnation (who knows). IV. Retail real estate is changing; an exodus from the cities is occurring, and will continue. Who wants to be locked in a small apartment for the winter? V. Corporate real estate landscape is dramatically changing, as companies save money with wfh policies. VI. Businesses are closing, as new laws come into effect limiting their businesses. VII. Education is changing. Many students will never see a classroom again. Universities will see dramatic revenue losses. a. 1.5T in student loans will not be repaid. VIII. Municipalities are threatened with bankruptcy, as the revenue losses hit tax revenue IX. Taxes will rise; someone has to pay for all this. X. The transportation industry is dramatically affected. Ridership on NJ Transit, Long Island RR, etc. is down 90%. Airlines are essentially grounded. XI. ...this, in turn, affects oil consumption rates. Fuel industries are affected. XII. Especially in this litiginous society, everything has to change. OSHA will get involved. What if I go to my office, and catch Corona? Can I sue my employer? What if I catch it riding on American Airlines? Are they liable? The Bus system? Anywhere that people come into contact. XIII. Politicians and medical advisors will not assume any risk. They will choose the safest route: LOCKDOWN. XIV. The government really put their heel down on the people here... and there is a fear of it happening again. What's next, iron grates on our front doors? We all have to wear ankle bracelets to monitor our movement? We will not see a return to the old way of life until may 2030.. if ever... if we make it that far... if if if. We are in for years, perhaps a decade, of societal change. This is just the beginning. I only hope that this does not lead to military conflict.
And yet the market rallies and many won't wear masks. Agree the shit is only beginning to hit the fan. Meanwhile I'm saying wtf
All just media fear, it's really not that bad, no 2nd waves just a 0.1% death rate give or take to get to, and the market knows this and the market knows it'll reverse strong which is why there in long already for that ride. When people realise they've been played and the media is lying to them or over reacting, happening more and more all the time then the Media will reverse there fear and jump on the we are all going to be fine band wagon and ride that train.
Market rally because all the QA has changed the meaning of the dollar! If you are 5 feet, or 60 inches tall, your height is measured by 60 of these: Code: | | | | ...but if we shrink the size of an inch to this: Code: | | | | Voila! I gained a foot; I'm now 6 feet tall. However, that doesn't mean that I'm ready for the NBA. The measurement has shifted, but I still can't dunk a basketball. In the same way, AAPL was worth 1T in pre-corona dollars; probably worth 1.2 or 1.3 in post-corona dollars.
Yeah but it's beyond truth... it goes way beyond the numbers. Peeps have realized just how hard the government can come down and assert their power. They really put their heel down. There is a fear of this happening again. There is a shift from the cities and consumption to the suburbs, space, and less governmental control.
Only if the people are SCARED shitless by a relentless media, blowing everything and every death into a OMG this could be you, without explaining it's very unlikely to be you unless your 85+ and seriously ill at the same time. Add the FEAR and they've bent over and taken it well, screaming please save me, without all back to normal The FEAR is slowly going, UK's went from ( my estimate 90% too scared to leave there houses to 40% still worried, kinda realising don't know anyone who's died as the deaths are actually very low 1 in 1000, or 1 in 20,000 if you don't know many 75+ year olds )
Add this to your scenarios: everybody is damn well sick and tired of lockdowns, masks, etc. (I'm convinced that part of the reason for the rioting is the built-up frustration. Doesn't excuse anything, but it's one of the main drivers behind it.) And politicians are very, very aware of the futility of ordering things that will not be obeyed - because every time they do, they lose authority. If there are any further lockdown orders issued, I don't believe that they'll be obeyed by any significant percentage of the population. At this point - regardless of what makes sense medically, epidemiologically, etc. - pretty much all of us are going to be exposed to COVID. A large number of us are going to die, and - like the flu, malaria, and lots of other killers that are still on the loose - the public is just going to ignore it and go on with their daily routine. When grandma dies because she couldn't stand not to see her grandkids... well, she was old anyway, right? Yes, there will be changes. But given my perspective over a rather colorful and relatively long life span, my projection is that they will be much smaller than you expect... except in places where you don't expect them. In other words, life and business (mostly) as usual.
BLM trying to Defund police is just silly, it'll never happen ( said that about a lot of crazy things, so maybe might not happen ), if it does Civil / Race War. Get your guns, move supplies into a secure hidden location in the remote forest somewhere and sit it out, would be my plan. Little Bug out shelter!!
Correct!!! Big Number of dead 300K+ US, but still small percentage, need to move away from the 300K as it's not got context and seems huge, where as 0.1% is small and more honest. Notice Media never use the 0.1%, maybe the 4% deaths per test, but never the 0.04% as US currently is per population.